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ASX and Super (Read 3044 times)
muso
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ASX and Super
Jul 1st, 2010 at 11:22am
 
OK, I changed my Super to a cash fund at 5000. I reckon that the ASX might get down to 4000 the way it's dropping right now. At that point, I might change it to Shares.

Starting to look like a W now, but I'd expect we'll get back on track by the end of the year. I'd also expect a few more see-saws yet.  

Wild fluctuations around September. You read it here first.
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shampain socialist
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #1 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 11:55am
 
what an excellent thread. good on you.
the mainstream media here, like everywhere I suppose, isn't really across what is happening in the gfc and aftermath, and when they do get across it, they are six months behind the news, very typically, the ABC, but all of the news outlets really. But hey, let's face it, they report after the fact, not ahead, so no big deal.

There are some very good sources of info on the net, collated news and analysis, and commentary sites about this, and I don't want to sound negative or alarmist about this, but this talk of a double-dip global recession has been around on those sites since last year, and the commentary isn't pretty.

Have you heard about that stuff? There is quite dire talk really about the future of the U.S. dollar and treasury bonds, etc, etc, etc, which is scary to say the least.
What do you think?
Good thread. Potentially very very useful in an Australian context, because we are getting very little information here, none really, about what will happen to Australia if there is another crash.
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muso
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #2 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 2:06pm
 
Yes, the media have been very subdued about it all. Double dip recession? What Double dip recession?

Of course the reality is that we're almost there.
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shampain socialist
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #3 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 2:17pm
 
"double dip recession" is a bit of a misnomer that we are being fed as well. There could well be another full on collapse to make the gfc look like a picnic - and that's not something I came up with, it is a subject of almost unanimous consensus out there on the net, by informed, non-mainstream media analysts. I know they can be on the alarmist side so they can push their own barrow sometimes, but the view is just too uniform right across the spectrum, that you have to give it serious consideration. The Americans are up the creek without a paddle apparently, they are so deep in debt (the economy that is), that many are saying they simply can't get out of it. Ordinary commentary in the blogosphere over there as well is getting increasingly polarised and full-on hostile between the opposing sides. According to a large proportion of commentators, Obama and the Democrats are tantamount to communists and are to blame for everything that is going wrong.
God knows what they would think of the Australian labor party!?
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #4 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 2:19pm
 
nice chart.
Here's a reliable one - the U.S. dollar index - looks like the greenback is about to go for a roller coaster ride. This is scary stuff:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AIND

That chart is more reliable than a weather forecast.
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #5 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 2:22pm
 
Most of them would have preferred Rudd's stimulus package to Obama's.

Unemployment benefits are limited in the US, and it doesn't look like Obama will extend the maximum term. There are a lot of angry hungry, homeless people and the situation looks set to deteriorate further.
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shampain socialist
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #6 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 2:34pm
 
"Most of them would have preferred Rudd's stimulus package to Obama's."
Well, probably, considering they needed it more than we did; now we have a good old massive deficit just like the yanks do. Great. When does the inflation start here then? It will in the States, that's the only way they're gonna have any hope of devaluing their debt.

"looks set to deteriorate further" - yes, but that's an understatement if ever I heard one. The way things are sounding over there, they'll end up fighting one another. You know how the American government tries to get around their deficit problem? They print money, full time.
When you see that sort of caper being used by governments, you are in big strife.
It doesn't happen in Australia yet; and if they tell you they're going to do it because it will stimulate the economy or something like that - it's crap, doesn't matter whether it is labor or liberal saying it. It isn't good. Lucky we still have iron ore and coal to sell (and tax) in this country so they can fund their deficits rather than the print money caper - or come to you and tax your house or your television or something. (that's the sort of thing they do in countries that don't have natural resources. Make sure they don't drive them offshore, or you'll be paying instead. You can't spend more than you earn, or you will have to get it off someone else. Simple; eternal and true.)
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shampain socialist
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #7 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 3:02pm
 
"There are a lot of angry hungry, homeless people..." (in the U.S.)

Yes, and there's a lot of people there who think that if you are in that situation it is your own fault.
That's what's good about living in Australia, to my way of thinking, Australians of whatever political persuasion, liberal or labor, tend *not*, for the great part, to think like that.
So when people here, think that liberals are all really right wing, I find it laughable. If you want right wing, go have a look at how you get treated in America; and thank your stars you don't live there - no matter what political party is in power in Australia.
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #8 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 3:37pm
 
I hate to be a harbinger of gloom and doom. Basically the poster who said that the stimulus packages did no good, was correct. If anything, they made matters worse by increasing national debt.

It might have swept it under the carpet temporarily, but that's about it.

The US Dollar on a roller coaster ride ? That means buy Gold. The Gold price will  continue to rise as a result.

All the ingredients are there for another plunge. The US Labour market is looking dismal, nobody has actually done much about the causes of the last crash. They just tried to treat the symptoms with stimulus packages.

Then there is the impending phosphate crunch.  What happens when we can't meet fertiliser demands with 7 Billion people on this Earth?

Then there's Peak Oil..... and Climate Change, but that comes later.

It's enough to drive you to religion. Fortunately I'm a Buddhist today so at least I realise that there is no self, and nothing that belongs to that self. It's just a false understanding of a selfish mind Wink

So what have we got to lose?
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« Last Edit: Jul 1st, 2010 at 3:47pm by muso »  

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shampain socialist
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #9 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 3:43pm
 
yes, the gold price is like a thermometer up the bum of your pet dog isn't it.
Problem about gold is that it's quoted in U.S. dollars. As the Aussie dollar goes up the price of gold in Aussies goes down. Very exciting buying gold from Australia.
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #10 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 3:55pm
 

muso - some of my friends and myself were bitterley disappointed by the GFC.

we had got all cashed up, ready to benefit from those who were over indebted.
but it never happened !!!!!!!
No houses sold for $50K, 3 year old cars for $200

what a swizz
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muso
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #11 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 4:00pm
 
Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 1st, 2010 at 3:55pm:
muso - some of my friends and myself were bitterley disappointed by the GFC.

we had got all cashed up, ready to benefit from those who were over indebted.
but it never happened !!!!!!!
No houses sold for $50K, 3 year old cars for $200

what a swizz



Want some cheap shares in Brisconnections?  Tongue
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #12 - Jul 1st, 2010 at 4:04pm
 

hahhah, i saved one of my mates a packet on those.

advised him to sell out at the loss he already had, he did.
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #13 - Jul 2nd, 2010 at 6:46pm
 
The only reason I haven't bought into shares again is because I haven't had time. Still seriously considering it though.
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Re: ASX and Super
Reply #14 - Jul 2nd, 2010 at 9:03pm
 
It's pretty widely recognised the stimulus package saved Australia from going into recession and kept the unemployement rate from going down. Yes it used up the government's surplus, but you must consider what there tax receipts would be like if we went into recession. Ie we would end up in deficit anyway.

Regarding shares, if your worried enough to sell them all then you will also miss out when they go up again.
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