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Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC (Read 9255 times)
Amadd
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #30 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 8:25am
 
Quote:
What is so scary? If you are reading the situation correctly then you would see this as an opportunity and take advantage of that. I did. I am.

It's not the end of the world you know. It may be the beginning of another world war, but lets face it, in the history of humans, war is more common than peace. It may be the beginning of political change (America has been predicted to come out of this mess a dictatorship did you know), but like war, political shifts happen. It may mean that many of us are a little less affluent, which is a bonus for community mindedness, since people are inclined to turn to people instead of things in times of poverty and poor supply.

What's more, humans are enterprising and industrious so will pick themselves up and dust themselves off and start all over again.

You may think change is scary, but I think it is an exciting opportunity.



Umm...did you just slip that one in there?
No..there will be no world war. People, and most especially the ones who created the downfall will cop it on the chin and accept their financial losses due to their own greed.
They will be made responsible and they will stop stealing our money to prop them up just to make the same stuffups all over again.

Don't for a second accept war for money.....or you will be severely dealt with..OK?  Grini
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Sappho
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #31 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:33am
 
No, I didn't just slip that one in. I based it on the fact that most major financial crises precede a major war... so says history.

Edit: More tragically, in the last century, financial crises and socialism brought with them ethnic cleansing. It wasn't just the jews that were cleansed in WWII you know. Hitler had many precedents to help decide his final solution.

Now if the last century is any thing to go by... you wouldn't want to be a Muslim in a Western Nation about now. Oh but wait... France is already calling for the return to French values, banning Muslim head wear... LOL.
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« Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:41am by Sappho »  

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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #32 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 11:27am
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:33am:
No, I didn't just slip that one in. I based it on the fact that most major financial crises precede a major war... so says history.

Edit: More tragically, in the last century, financial crises and socialism brought with them ethnic cleansing. It wasn't just the jews that were cleansed in WWII you know. Hitler had many precedents to help decide his final solution.

Now if the last century is any thing to go by... you wouldn't want to be a Muslim in a Western Nation about now. Oh but wait... France is already calling for the return to French values, banning Muslim head wear... LOL.


As I said in an earlier post, "if you really think WW3, which would be fought with Nuclear weapons, would not destroy every facet of Global human sociey, then I suggest you need to get up to speed on the affects of nuclear war, as a minimum!"

As I have also said numberous times, "this time is different".

In terms of the Economic effects, the current GFC is a very different and is but the start of a much more omminous event than anything that has come before and the same applies to your war correlation. A World War now would not the same as previous World Wars, as bad as they were then, a new WW would cause unimaginable destruction.

If it gets to that point, there will be no winners!

Money, Gold & all those things that you may think will present exciting opportunities, will simply vanish, in the blink of an eye.

That must be avoided, even at the cost of you missing out on a good return on your investments?

I suggest the status quo in Economics & Politics is not, can not and will not be sustainable.

We need to move on, before we are moved on!

The real question is, can we "fast forward" human nature enough, either voluntarily or in-voluntarily, to achieve a breakthru velocity, before time runs out? 
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Sappho
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #33 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 12:05pm
 
A major war is not necessarily a world war. Remember war is more common than peace. Also remember that major wars are not necessarily initiated by the West. I find it absurd, they you not only ignore the lessons of history... you outright deny human history as being relevant.

I question your 'this time it is different' mantra... The reason we are in a crisis is the very same reason that brought with it the Great Depression... A Credit Crunch.

This time however, rather than let the system collapse and cleanse itself of the inefficient financial and corporate muck, the govt is looking to save it, because they have become 'too big to fail' and in the process they are learning just how big their failures that cannot fail really are. Saving these failed entities is creating yet another bubble... the bond bubble, which if not fed by outside sources, is fed by monetization.

You speak of fast tracking change... well Human nature is not up to it. The greater the change, the greater the resistance to that change... is how human nature works. Anyone who works in change management knows this.

Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey... in case you hadn't heard.
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #34 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 1:24pm
 
Senexx wrote on Aug 28th, 2010 at 9:56pm:
What a load of crap this thread is.  Anyone believes that inflation and hyperinflation is soon to follow go breathe in some water.


Did you read the link? Do you understand the difference between Inflation that acts on the economy and Hyperinflation that acts on the currency?

Quote:
Perceptions Now is closest to the mark when he says deflation is the most likely outcome at the moment.


No one is disputing that the US is a deflating economy. You can have an economy deflating whilst the currency hyper-inflates.

Quote:
For anyone concerned about hyperinflation from debt, deficit, stimulus packages I ask you to turn your attention to Japan where they have had a massive deficit and have been bordering on deflation for years.


Crucial point you fail to note is that Japan save and those savings act as collateral. The US does not save in anywhere near the same numbers and therefore have no collateral to justify their excessive debt.

The USD is not worth what it is claimed to be worth... and this little truth is reverberating throughout all markets globally.
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #35 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 5:50pm
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 12:05pm:
1) A major war is not necessarily a world war. Remember war is more common than peace. Also remember that major wars are not necessarily initiated by the West.
2) I find it absurd, they you not only ignore the lessons of history... you outright deny human history as being relevant.
3) I question your 'this time it is different' mantra... The reason we are in a crisis is the very same reason that brought with it the Great Depression... A Credit Crunch.

4) This time however, rather than let the system collapse and cleanse itself of the inefficient financial and corporate muck, the govt is looking to save it, because they have become 'too big to fail' and in the process they are learning just how big their failures that cannot fail really are. Saving these failed entities is creating yet another bubble... the bond bubble, which if not fed by outside sources, is fed by monetization.

5) You speak of fast tracking change... well Human nature is not up to it. The greater the change, the greater the resistance to that change... is how human nature works. Anyone who works in change management knows this.
6) Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey... in case you hadn't heard.


1) You raised a World War & I state again WW3 is entirely out of the question, it would destroy us all! We already have 2 other major wars, one of which is directly related to one of my 7 Global Macro Factors, that being Peak Oil & of course it is the war in Iraq. Both Iraq & Aftghanistan are a huge drain on resources, they are not beneficial.
2) On the contrary, I have learned from studying history that war on a Global scale, has now gone beyond being an Economic stimulus, it is now a species killer - OURS!
3) When in human history, did all 7 of my Global Macro Factors apply, except now? This is a great deal more, than the Great Depression!
4) I agree with you, that should not have been allowed to happen & both major US Political party's did, as well as other governments of various persuasions. I would question their motives, as should the motives of Alan Greenspan, Bernanke & Others also be questioned. I do not believe that the sorts of "wrong decisions" which have been taken, can all be errors of judgement, accidents or co-incidences.
5) I believe we are now out of time and only urgent actions will have any chance of saving future generations from a dire & deteriorating set of circumstances.
That said, I think you will find that I already said that we are unlikely to take the required actions voluntarily and it may not even happen in-voluntarily.
Management has nothing to do with this discussion. Notwithstanding that, I did spend quite some time in the financial sector, including in magaement, prior to retirement a few years ago.
6) Everything is subject to circumstances, on this ocassion slowly, slowly, won't cut it! 

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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #36 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 6:02pm
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 1:24pm:
Senexx wrote on Aug 28th, 2010 at 9:56pm:
What a load of crap this thread is.  Anyone believes that inflation and hyperinflation is soon to follow go breathe in some water.


Did you read the link? Do you understand the difference between Inflation that acts on the economy and Hyperinflation that acts on the currency?

Quote:
For anyone concerned about hyperinflation from debt, deficit, stimulus packages I ask you to turn your attention to Japan where they have had a massive deficit and have been bordering on deflation for years.


Crucial point you fail to note is that Japan save and those savings act as collateral. The US does not save in anywhere near the same numbers and therefore have no collateral to justify their excessive debt.

The USD is not worth what it is claimed to be worth... and this little truth is reverberating throughout all markets globally.


Whilst it is correct that the USA has started down a similar path to Japan's lost 2 decades, it will not necessarily go down exactly the same path and Japans path may also be in the process of change.

However, it is true that the Japanes were/are big savers and that the Japanese are funding their governments own Deficits & Debt, so far, whereas the USA in far more external in their funding, primarily via China & Japan. That external funding has also started to decline.

It is also true that the US$ & Debt are both not worth what is claimed and the De-valuation &/or De-fault may well cause a very large quake, around the world!
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #37 - Aug 31st, 2010 at 12:17pm
 
STOP THE PRESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quote:
Rumors have circulated in China that People’s Bank of China (PBC) Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan may have left the country. The rumors appear to have started following reports on Aug. 28 which cited Ming Pao, a Hong Kong-based news agency, saying that because of an approximately $430 billion loss on U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese government may punish some individuals within the PBC, including Zhou. Although Ming Pao on Aug. 30 published a report on its website indicating that the prior report was fabricated by a mainland news site that had attributed the false information to Ming Pao, rumors of Zhou’s defection have spread around China intensively, and Zhou’s name has been blocked from Internet search engines in China.

STRATFOR has received no confirmation of the rumor, and reports by state-run Chinese media appeared to send strong indications that Zhou is in no trouble at the moment. However, the release of this rumor and its dispersion throughout the public is significant, particularly as the Communist Party of China (CPC) is preparing for a leadership transition in 2012.

Chinese state-run media and official government websites have run several high-profile reports about Zhou, which should be seen as an attempt to refute the rumors. The PBC website published two articles on its homepage reporting on Zhou’s meeting with visiting Japanese Financial Services Minister Shozaburo Jimi during the third China-Japan high-level economic dialogue as well as a meeting with an Italian delegation. Xinhua news agency reported that Zhou told the PBC Party Committee Enlargement meeting on Aug. 30 it should “continue to implement justice and strengthen legislative work in the financial system.” Prior to this news, Zhou appeared at the 2nd annual conference of the heads of the Chinese, Japanese and Korean central banks held on Aug. 3, and his most recent public appearance was Aug. 10 for China’s Financial System Anti-corruption Construction Exhibition.

Zhou is known to have lofty political ambitions and is believed to be a close ally to former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, as well as a core figure for Jiang’s “Shanghai Gang.” There has been no shortage of rumors about Zhou’s possible dismissal in the past five years, as he is believed to be associated with several high-level financial scandals. For example, Zhou was rumored to be under “shuanggui,” a form of house arrest administered by the CPC, during the massive crackdown of Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu in 2006, which was perceived in the country as a crackdown of the Shanghai Gang and part of President Hu Jintao’s effort to consolidate power ahead of the 2007 power transition. There was also a rumor that he might have been detained following the investigation and arrest of Wang Yi, the vice governor of the China Development Bank, along with several other officials in the financial circle. Currently, several financial scandals are still under investigation, and it is likely that Zhou, as PBC governor and one of the most powerful economic players in the country, could be associated with some cases. Therefore, whether or not the rumor is true at this time, the leaking of this news is very likely to be associated with a power struggle within the Communist Party’s economic hierarchy.

Read more: China: Rumors of the Central Bank Chief's Defection | STRATFOR
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Sappho
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #38 - Aug 31st, 2010 at 12:19pm
 
STRATFOR is continuing to examine unconfirmed rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, fled China to the United States. The origin of the report has been hard to track, especially due to censorship of websites discussing the rumors, so the unconfirmed rumors remain just that — unconfirmed. However, if true, these rumors could have significant implications for China and for Sino-U.S. relations.
Analysis

STRATFOR is continuing to investigate unconfirmed rumors circulating in Chinese media to the effect that Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, has fled China to the United States. At present there is still no confirmation.

The provenance of the rumor has proved hard to track. A report attributed to Hong Kong’s Ming Pao newspaper on Aug. 28 said that Zhou might be punished for a large loss on U.S Treasury bonds worth $430 billion, and that the Chinese government might also punish others in the People’s Bank of China. The report allegedly originated on an unknown but “major” Chinese discussion forum, and that forum suggested that Zhou had left the country. Ming Pao denied it had published the report Aug. 30, saying others had used Ming Pao’s name without permission to distribute the rumor. STRATFOR has not yet been able to track down the original report, most likely because the Chinese government appears to be actively censoring websites discussing the rumors, deleting some web pages and blocking search engine results that involve Zhou’s name and words relating to a possible defection. Rumors have continued to circulate on Chinese blogs and web forums, in particular suggesting that Zhou may have defected to the United States. The reports are still posted on the blog of a professor, Liu Bingfu, whose career experience suggests he is a notable, if minor, academic.

Zhou cannot be confirmed to have appeared in public since the rumors began. The official website of the People’s Bank of China has reported on Zhou’s activities Aug. 30 — such as attending meetings with officials from Japan and Italy — in what appears to be unusual coverage, including photos, and may be an attempt to counteract the rumors. The pictures were taken from a distance but do appear to show Zhou, though it cannot be confirmed whether the photos were in fact taken on Aug. 30. Zhou’s last televised appearance was on Aug. 26 on CCTV, attending a conference with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, and images of the TV appearance also seem to show Zhou. Zhou had attended official events Aug. 10, in which he called for China to continue developing its western regions, and Aug. 3, when he met with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts.

Therefore what STRATFOR has at the moment remains unconfirmed rumors. If the reports are false, it would seem likely that Zhou will make a public appearance soon to dispel them. Otherwise speculation will continue. There are constantly rumors that high-level Chinese officials are in danger of a downfall, especially dealing with economic policymakers amid the economic challenges in recent years — this year alone, such rumors have touched Wen and top banking regulator Liu Mingkang. Similarly, China has undertaken an extensive drive over the past year targeting corrupt officials, and a variant of the rumors about Zhou suggests he has disappeared from the public spotlight because he is under investigation for corruption.

What makes the rumors about Zhou more interesting, beyond his position as governor of the central bank, is the specific claim that he has defected to the United States. If true, this would have serious ramifications for domestic and foreign perceptions of China’s political and financial stability, as well as for U.S.-Chinese relations. Though the rumors may prove false, their emergence alone likely suggests an attempt to detract from Zhou’s reputation. This could be related to his economic policies — while the rumor of a loss of $430 billion related to U.S. Treasury bills is difficult to comprehend without more context, China has recently adjusted its foreign exchange reserve management, or Zhou may have been targeted as part of the factional struggles ahead of leadership transition in 2012. However, it is relatively rare in China for political leaders to be punished for failed policies, and more likely the consequence of scandals, misconduct or political purges.
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #39 - Aug 31st, 2010 at 12:22pm
 
If the rumours are true, then this is the black swan that will trigger the next round of economic decline for the US.

Personally, I struggle to believe it, but then, that is the nature of The Black Swan Effect... it is the outlying, unexpected event that brings chaos.
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Re: Bond Bubbles and Hyperinflation next in the GFC
Reply #40 - Aug 31st, 2010 at 12:45pm
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 31st, 2010 at 12:22pm:
If the rumours are true, then this is the black swan that will trigger the next round of economic decline for the US.

Personally, I struggle to believe it, but then, that is the nature of The Black Swan Effect... it is the outlying, unexpected event that brings chaos.


Well, it could certainly get interesting! The reference is $430 Billion, who is to say that's all there is?

I note that the US is saying he hasn't defected & China are saying he hasn't been punished.

Personally, I would trust either of those statements!
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