perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25
th, 2010 at 8:34pm:
It will mean an urgent "Manhattan Style Project" to locate any possible replacement/s for Oil, Coal & Gas, as quickly as humanly possible. A large part of that project will be to enable the transition away from Fossil Fuels, to their replacements, in the shortest time possible, to assist in restricting the flow of GHG's into the environment.
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29
th, 2010 at 9:46pm:
The Amercian Manhattan Project was actually a race against time, to produce the Atomic Bomb and to beat Germany to it.
We have a similar issue today, as we are running up against Supply Peaks in our major Energy Resources, particularly Oil, but also and shortly Coal & Gas.
We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.
We need it for 2 major reasons -
1) Our Global Economy is powered (pun intended) by Fossil Fuels and if they go into decline before we find replacement, for the many uses of Oil & the other Carbon fuels, then our Economy will go down the toilet & quickly.
2) We desperately need to get off the "Carbon cycle" & other GHG's or Climate Change will make all other discussions look like small change.
Whilst there are some who will not agree that Climate Change is man made or indeed even a problem, on the basis of the evidence thus far and the need to take proper mitigation measures on a danger so large, we are obliged to take all necessary measures to avoid the worse case scenario's!
Btw, the Nuclear option is expensive & limited in scope, as it will not fix all the required issues and it too has Supply constraints.
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29
th, 2010 at 10:32pm:
freediver wrote on Aug 29
th, 2010 at 10:04pm:
Quote:We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.
How about windmills? There are various options that will fill the void, but only partially!
Wind, Solar Geo-thermal, Water and others will fill part of the gap, but there will be a lot of gap to fill and all too soon!
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30
th, 2010 at 10:33pm:
freediver wrote on Aug 30
th, 2010 at 10:10pm:
Can't you put another windmill in the gap? I think it is big enough.
What is your point, FD? freediver wrote on Sep 2
nd, 2010 at 10:26pm:
That we don't need some silly government directed 'manahatten project' to find the answers. We already have the technology. We could go a long way without even chaning energy production methods. The only remaining barriers are political and economics.
Not that government funded research is a bad thing, just that it is silly to make it a precursor to action.
Scratches then head?
I'm not sure how "another windmill into the gap" has much to do with a Manhattan style project, to speed the transition away from Carbon based Energy & GHG's?
In any event, it is evident (to me) that we do not have the Political &/or Economic will or the the technology.
But above all, we do not have the time, for the normal processed to work thru Political & Economic systems which are still strugggling to retain the status quo, when the reality is that they are dying! Hirsch report
ConclusionsWorld oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt. Peaking will happen, but the timing is uncertain.
Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S. Over the past century the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil.
The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.
Aggressive fuel efficiency and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation.
Oil peaking presents a unique challenge. Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.
Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The problem is liquid fuels for transportation. The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.
Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.
Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.
Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
It is a matter of risk management. The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem
If peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging.
Government intervention will be required. The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.
Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures.
Link -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report