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Keynesianism (Read 15268 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #30 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 9:46pm
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 1:16pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2010 at 8:34pm:
It will mean an urgent "Manhattan Style Project" to locate any possible replacement/s for Oil, Coal & Gas, as quickly as humanly possible. A large part of that project will be to enable the transition away from Fossil Fuels, to their replacements, in the shortest time possible, to assist in restricting the flow of GHG's into the environment.

OMG... do you even know what the Manhattan Project was about?

I'll be kind and assume you are talking about a shift from fossil fuels to nuclear energy. But again... How? We are all of us already paying high taxes to pay back the debt of excess... in your model.

You shouldn't be so kind!
And, you shouldn't assume!

The Amercian Manhattan Project was actually a race against time, to produce the Atomic Bomb and to beat Germany to it.

We have a similar issue today, as we are running up against Supply Peaks in our major Energy Resources, particularly Oil, but also and shortly Coal & Gas.

We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.

We need it for 2 major reasons -
1) Our Global Economy is powered (pun intended) by Fossil Fuels and if they go into decline before we find replacement, for the many uses of Oil & the other Carbon fuels, then our Economy will go down the toilet & quickly.
2) We desperately need to get off the "Carbon cycle" & other GHG's or Climate Change will make all other discussions look like small change.
Whilst there are some who will not agree that Climate Change is man made or indeed even a problem, on the basis of the evidence thus far and the need to take proper mitigation measures on a danger so large, we are obliged to take all necessary measures to avoid the worse case scenario's!  

Btw, the Nuclear option is expensive & limited in scope, as it will not fix all the required issues and it too has Supply constraints.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #31 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 9:58pm
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 1:16pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2010 at 8:34pm:
It will mean changing the Political & Economic status quo, into something new, which will allow us the time needed to extricate ourselves from the CRAP that we ALL created! And, do do that, it will mean dragging every nation into a common agreement, on the actions needed, by any & all means.

Oh yeah... like that's gonna work. We can't even agree globally on a climate action and you expect this Hollywood Solution to save the day?

And what do you mean by 'dragging ever nation into common agreement'... that smells of war or threats of war.  


Actually, I did say, by any & all means, precisely because I doubt that any volunatry effort will succeed, as shown by Climate Change.

And, I think that measures are already under way to have some actions done, but in such a way that there may be no choice. In any event, we are in the midst of playing the highest game of chance & bluff in human history & the stakes are all of our tomorrows.

I hope we win!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #32 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:01pm
 
Sappho wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 1:16pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2010 at 8:34pm:
Now, I don't know IF we will be allowed to make our own decisions, which may result in better outcomes, as I suspect that some contingency plans are already under way.

Whether we like it or not & whether they work or not, are entirely different questions!

So, FD, I doubt I answered your direct question, but as Malcolm Fraser & George Bernard Shaw said, "life wasn't meant to be easy" and I suspect we are in the process of confirming that to be a fact?

You watch too many movies. Pfft...  

You may be correct?

But, I generally pick the ending & the twist!

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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #33 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:04pm
 
Quote:
We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.


How about windmills?
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #34 - Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:32pm
 
freediver wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:04pm:
Quote:
We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.


How about windmills?


There are various options that will fill the void, but only partially!

Wind, Solar Geo-thermal, Water and others will fill part of the gap, but there will be a lot of gap to fill and all too soon!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #35 - Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:10pm
 
Can't you put another windmill in the gap? I think it is big enough.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #36 - Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:33pm
 
freediver wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:10pm:
Can't you put another windmill in the gap? I think it is big enough.


What is your point, FD?
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #37 - Sep 2nd, 2010 at 10:26pm
 
That we don't need some silly government directed 'manahatten project' to find the answers. We already have the technology. We could go a long way without even chaning energy production methods. The only remaining barriers are political and economics.

Not that government funded research is a bad thing, just that it is silly to make it a precursor to action.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #38 - Sep 3rd, 2010 at 12:36pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25th, 2010 at 8:34pm:
It will mean an urgent "Manhattan Style Project" to locate any possible replacement/s for Oil, Coal & Gas, as quickly as humanly possible. A large part of that project will be to enable the transition away from Fossil Fuels, to their replacements, in the shortest time possible, to assist in restricting the flow of GHG's into the environment.



perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 9:46pm:
The Amercian Manhattan Project was actually a race against time, to produce the Atomic Bomb and to beat Germany to it.

We have a similar issue today, as we are running up against Supply Peaks in our major Energy Resources, particularly Oil, but also and shortly Coal & Gas.

We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.

We need it for 2 major reasons -
1) Our Global Economy is powered (pun intended) by Fossil Fuels and if they go into decline before we find replacement, for the many uses of Oil & the other Carbon fuels, then our Economy will go down the toilet & quickly.
2) We desperately need to get off the "Carbon cycle" & other GHG's or Climate Change will make all other discussions look like small change.
Whilst there are some who will not agree that Climate Change is man made or indeed even a problem, on the basis of the evidence thus far and the need to take proper mitigation measures on a danger so large, we are obliged to take all necessary measures to avoid the worse case scenario's!  

Btw, the Nuclear option is expensive & limited in scope, as it will not fix all the required issues and it too has Supply constraints.



perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:32pm:
freediver wrote on Aug 29th, 2010 at 10:04pm:
Quote:
We need a similar project, with similar urgency, to locate another source of Energy, which can replace the existing "Carbon Based Fossil Fuels" and do so, in a hurry.


How about windmills?


There are various options that will fill the void, but only partially!

Wind, Solar Geo-thermal, Water and others will fill part of the gap, but there will be a lot of gap to fill and all too soon!



perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:33pm:
freediver wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:10pm:
Can't you put another windmill in the gap? I think it is big enough.


What is your point, FD?



freediver wrote on Sep 2nd, 2010 at 10:26pm:
That we don't need some silly government directed 'manahatten project' to find the answers. We already have the technology. We could go a long way without even chaning energy production methods. The only remaining barriers are political and economics.

Not that government funded research is a bad thing, just that it is silly to make it a precursor to action.


Scratches then head?

I'm not sure how "another windmill into the gap" has much to do with a Manhattan style project, to speed the transition away from Carbon based Energy & GHG's?

In any event, it is evident (to me) that we do not have the Political &/or Economic will or the the technology.

But above all, we do not have the time, for the normal processed to work thru Political & Economic systems which are still strugggling to retain the status quo, when the reality is that they are dying!


Hirsch report


Conclusions
World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
Peaking will happen, but the timing is uncertain.

Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the U.S.
Over the past century the U.S. economy has been shaped by the availability of low-cost oil.
The economic loss to the United States could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale.
Aggressive fuel efficiency and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation.

Oil peaking presents a unique challenge.
Without massive mitigation, the problem will be pervasive and long-term.
Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.

The problem is liquid fuels for transportation.
The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.
Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.
Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.

Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.

It is a matter of risk management.
The peaking of world oil production is a classic risk management problem
If peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could be extremely damaging.

Government intervention will be required.
The economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.
Expediency may require major changes to existing administrative and regulatory procedures.
Link -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #39 - Sep 3rd, 2010 at 10:31pm
 
Quote:
I'm not sure how "another windmill into the gap" has much to do with a Manhattan style project


It's the alternative.

Quote:
In any event, it is evident (to me) that we do not have the Political &/or Economic will or the the technology.


We have the technology. It is really quite simple to do. We don't just have one technology, we have lots of different technologies that could do the job.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #40 - Sep 4th, 2010 at 10:43am
 
freediver wrote on Sep 3rd, 2010 at 10:31pm:
Quote:
I'm not sure how "another windmill into the gap" has much to do with a Manhattan style project


It's the alternative.



I don't think so!

The problem is liquid fuels for transportation.
The lifetimes of transportation equipment are measured in decades.
Rapid changeover in transportation equipment is inherently impossible.
Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels.

Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #41 - Sep 4th, 2010 at 11:01am
 
freediver wrote on Sep 3rd, 2010 at 10:31pm:
Quote:
In any event, it is evident (to me) that we do not have the Political &/or Economic will or the the technology.


We have the technology. It is really quite simple to do. We don't just have one technology, we have lots of different technologies that could do the job.


Where is/are the available technology/s that can deliver similar EROEI to the existing conventional Oil fields, produce it in such an abundant volume to offset a continuing Population growth for at least another 20-30 years and in a manner suitable for Power generation, Transport & the myriad of other uses, to offest the decline in Oil.

And, most importantly, can this or these new technologies deliver all of this, in a time frame that will prevent a Global Economic collapse, given that we need at least 10-20 years prior to Peak Oil and on a Global scale, for an effective changeover to be possible and that Oil Production already  Peak in 2005?

Btw, I gather from your non comment that you agree we don't have the Political &/or Economic will?
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #42 - Sep 4th, 2010 at 9:53pm
 
Why does EROEI matter? Isn't it cost that ultimately matters? After, energy is always free at the source.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #43 - Sep 4th, 2010 at 11:04pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 4th, 2010 at 9:53pm:
Why does EROEI matter? Isn't it cost that ultimately matters? After, energy is always free at the source.


In physics, energy economics and ecological energetics, EROEI (energy returned on energy invested), ERoEI, or EROI (energy return on investment), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource.

When the EROEI of a resource is equal to or lower than 1, that energy source becomes an "energy sink", and can no longer be used as a primary source of energy.

The economic influence of EROEI
High per-capita energy use has been considered desirable as it is associated with a high standard of living based on energy-intensive machines. A society will generally exploit the highest available EROEI energy sources first, as these provide the most energy for the least effort. With non-renewable sources, progressively lower EROEI sources are then used as the higher-quality ones are exhausted.

For example, when oil was originally discovered, it took on average one barrel of oil to find, extract, and process about 100 barrels of oil. That ratio has declined steadily over the last century to about three barrels gained for one barrel used up in the U.S. (and about ten for one in Saudi Arabia).[citation needed] [1] Currently (2006) the EROEI of wind energy in North America and Europe is about 20:1[2] which has driven its adoption.

Joseph Tainter[4] suggests that diminishing returns of the EROEI is a chief cause of the collapse of complex societies. Falling EROEI due to depletion of non-renewable resources also poses a difficult challenge for industrial economies.

EROEI under rapid growth
A related recent concern is energy cannibalism where energy technologies can have a limited growth rate if climate neutrality is demanded. Many energy technologies are capable of replacing significant volumes of fossil fuels and concomitant green house gas emissions.

Unfortunately, neither the enormous scale of the current fossil fuel energy system nor the necessary growth rate of these technologies is well understood within the limits imposed by the net energy produced for a growing industry.
Link -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EROEI
===========
Cost is what EROEI is about!

If it takes the equivalent of 1 barrel of oil (COST), to make a barrel of Oil (BENEFIT), then what is the Economic point? Which is the case, for example, in Corn Ethanol.

The cost at the point of source is not what people look at, it is the cost at the point of retail sale, that people are now starting to find objectionable!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #44 - Sep 5th, 2010 at 8:05am
 
Quote:
Cost is what EROEI is about!


Not really. You could have dirt cheap technology with a low EROI. EROI is only a minor part of the cost and any comparison based on EROI alone is obviously going to be close to useless.
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