freediver wrote on Sep 22
nd, 2010 at 11:11pm:
Quote:I ask what is your interpretation of what we refer to as Leverage?
It usually refers to borrowing to invest.
Leverage & Deleveraging
There are actually a number of aspects to Leverage & Deleveraging, but we should start with the more commonly known.
Financial Leverage & Deleveraging
Leverage is the process of using Debt, which is funded by future Earnings, to acquire Assets (Physical or Intellectual Property). These Assets may then be used to acquire or increase income or simply to improve a standard of living.
In good times, which were pretty much the last 60 years, being highly Geared or Levered, was usually an advantage, as income rolled in from everywhere, to pay off the Debt, in a Global Economy that was virtually guaranteed to grow, in a world blessed with a growing Population, Cheap & abundant Energy sources & apparently limitless Other Essential Resources!
In fact, the higher the Debt, the better.
If you owed the Bank a little and you had a problem, then YOU HAD THE PROBLEM!
Whereas, if you & your mates owed the Bank a ShipLoad and you had a problem, then THE BANK HAD THE PROBLEM!
However, nothing lasts forever and one day the inevitable happens, the Assets you acquired (by virtue of Debt) are now worth less than what you owe on the Debt or in some instances the assets really were “worthless” (subprime mortgages) OR your income declines, to the point where you can not make the required payments.
You may perceive the need to transfer surplus income into paying your Debt down or off, if you have any surplus income?
If you don’t have sufficient surplus income or not enough income or no income at all, then you may voluntarily decide to sell some or all of your assets, until the Debt is cleared? Of course, the Bank may make that decision, in-voluntary!
If there is only one of you or you are a small entity, then YOU HAVE A DELEVERAGING PROBLEM!
If there are many of you & you are large entities, with a particular Bank, THEN THAT BANK ALSO HAS A DELVERAGING PROBLEM!
If the whole nation has similar problems, then THERE IS A SYSTEMIC DELEVERAGING PROBLEM and the problem again becomes one for EVERY TAXPAYER!
In the current instance, pretty much every country in the world will be Deleveraging simultaneously!
There are two obvious ways to deleverage –
1) Pay down or off, the relevant Debt.
2) Increase income/earnings or Capital in the case of a business, possibly via more Borrowings.
Given the current Financial settings, where Banks are also deleveraging, many are finding & will continue to find, increased borrowings quite difficult.
And, given the Marco Global settings of reducing Demand, due to Baby Boomer retirements, a slowing Population growth rate & a decline in the Consumers disposable income, many will also find increasing their net income will also be quite difficult in future.
Is this correct? Well, yes and all we need to do, is look at the Japanese experience since 1990, to confirm it. Japanese businesses & Private individuals have been hunkering down since 1990, when their Aging Population started to impact their economy. Notwithstanding, that the Japanese had the rest of the world still going gangbusters until around 2005, the Japanese are still in the Deleveraging Doldrums Two decades later and the Japanese didn’t even have Peak Oil to contend with, until recently, when it bust forth onto the world.
So, paying down Private & Business Debt, that’s all there is, CORRECT?
Well, actually no! There’s more, quite a bit more!
For starters there is Government Debt, which in the case of Japan, the USA and many other countries, Government Debt has been rising quickly in the form of Economic Stimulus packages & Corporate Bailouts, as Private & Business Debt may or may not have been declining. The effect is, in the main, that net Debt or Total Debt to GDP ratio’s are still as high or even higher now, than was the case in 2007. You see, all Debt, whether it starts as Private, Business or Government, will finally revert back to the national consumer and in one way, shape or form, the Public will pay!
In the case of the USA, Private individuals and Business have started paying down Debt, but the two recent governments & the Federal Reserve Bank have gone on a Debt binge, with the net result being that the total US Debt has not yet started to De-lever.
In fact, many countries, including the USA, are going down the Japanese path, in the mistaken belief that things will eventually return to “normal” & the Politicians now in charge, won’t have “the collapse” on their watch?
The fact is, that due to Baby Boomer retirements, a slowing Population growth rate, Peak Energy, Climate Change & the massive existing Debt, things are not going to return to normal and at some point, we will have to voluntarily start the process of Deleveraging or others (China) may make the decision in-voluntary!