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Keynesianism (Read 15287 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #75 - Sep 20th, 2010 at 9:30pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 20th, 2010 at 9:14pm:
So if I read this entire book I will find an answer to my simple question?


First, they are video's, not books!

And no, your question does not have simple answers, but you may find your perspectives may change.
I am also posting all of the Dr Albert Bartlet video's, on Arithmetic, Population & Energy
, for you & others.

These also confirms that we need a different view of how we view the world, our place in this world & our Economic system!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #76 - Sep 20th, 2010 at 9:46pm
 
Quote:
And no, your question does not have simple answers


Is that because you don't understand your own posts?
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #77 - Sep 20th, 2010 at 10:29pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 20th, 2010 at 9:46pm:
Quote:
And no, your question does not have simple answers


Is that because you don't understand your own posts?


No, I am trying to make it understood that things are not what people think they are!

There are not simple black & white choices, followed by another Hollywood ending!  
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #78 - Sep 21st, 2010 at 10:41pm
 
If you want to help people understand, you should figure out how to explain it yourslf. Telling people they have to read a whole book to get an answer to a simple question just makes it look like you have no idea at all.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #79 - Sep 22nd, 2010 at 12:09am
 
freediver wrote on Sep 21st, 2010 at 10:41pm:
If you want to help people understand, you should figure out how to explain it yourslf. Telling people they have to read a whole book to get an answer to a simple question just makes it look like you have no idea at all.


Like I said, there video's not books!

Unlike some, I know just enuff, to know that I don't know much at all.

However, the little that I do know, tells me to ask questions & look for the real truth, not just the "facts" that are usually dealt out, which means looking outside my comfort zone.

That said, before we have alook at De-leveraging, can I ask what your parameters are?

To get some guage of how wide a net you want to delve into, I ask what is your interpretation of what we refer to as Leverage?

Is it purely the narrow interpretation of "direct financial leverage" or is it more and if more what?

I wouldn't want to waste more time than I need to on things you have no interest  in or understanding of!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #80 - Sep 22nd, 2010 at 7:50am
 
I enjoyed the videos...well, sort of  Cry
It was a very good crash course (probably about an hour) to get a better understanding, or at least a different perspective on where our economy may be at today.

Personally, I agree with the information shown. I've never had any misconceptions that exponential growth reliant on finite resources cannot continue beyond a finite length of time.

Unfortunately, when the exponentiality reaches it's limits, simple mathematics tells you that it's going to be a very sudden realisation that our system was a ponzi scheme just like so many others.

All indications are that saturation point is very close indeed without an infinite energy source that can cope with the required economic growth.

I'm sort of looking forward to the next chapter.i



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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #81 - Sep 22nd, 2010 at 12:57pm
 
Amadd wrote on Sep 22nd, 2010 at 7:50am:
I enjoyed the videos...well, sort of  Cry
It was a very good crash course (probably about an hour) to get a better understanding, or at least a different perspective on where our economy may be at today.

Personally, I agree with the information shown. I've never had any misconceptions that exponential growth reliant on finite resources cannot continue beyond a finite length of time.

Unfortunately, when the exponentiality reaches it's limits, simple mathematics tells you that it's going to be a very sudden realisation that our system was a ponzi scheme just like so many others.

All indications are that saturation point is very close indeed without an infinite energy source that can cope with the required economic growth.

I'm sort of looking forward to the next chapter.



It is good to hear that you got something out of these video's.

Although, you may already have agreed with much of what was put, they do a fair job of clarifying some of the issues!  

Anyone has hasn't already looked into the real issues or who hasn't made their mind up, would get quite a lot to think about!

You mentioned being very close to "saturation point" and I liken this situation to Wile E Coyote, who gets up a head of steam, whilst chasing our friend the Road Runner.

...

If you can imagine Wile E in the frame before the above, hanging ten, looking down at the at the fall.

The Road Runner thinks for a moment, I can save Wile from his own destruction, caused by his own greed, all I have to do is give him a very slight pull back from the edge of the precipice and there will be a Hollywood ending for good old Wile E Coyote!

Then a moment later, comes the frame we see above, as the Road Runner realises that if he saves the Coyote, Wile E will again pursue him and the Road Runner gives Wile E the slightest of nudges, thus tipping Wile E over the edge and gravity then takes over to complete the job.

In other words, because we are at stauration, it will only take a small nudge, a small miscalculation, by those who think they have a handle on events, then we & our Global Economy, will join Wile E Coyote, as we both go over the cliff edge!

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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #82 - Sep 23rd, 2010 at 8:10pm
 
Off-Topic replies have been moved to this Topic.

Quote:
That said, before we have alook at De-leveraging, can I ask what your parameters are?


I have a question, not parameters. Or should I ask, what do you mean by parameters?

Quote:
I ask what is your interpretation of what we refer to as Leverage?


It usually refers to borrowing to invest.
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« Last Edit: Sep 23rd, 2010 at 8:15pm by freediver »  

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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #83 - Sep 23rd, 2010 at 12:08pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 22nd, 2010 at 11:11pm:
Quote:
I ask what is your interpretation of what we refer to as Leverage?


It usually refers to borrowing to invest.



Leverage & Deleveraging

There are actually a number of aspects to Leverage & Deleveraging, but we should start with the more commonly known.

Financial Leverage & Deleveraging

Leverage is the process of using Debt, which is funded by future Earnings, to acquire Assets (Physical or Intellectual Property). These Assets may then be used to acquire or increase income or simply to improve a standard of living.

In good times, which were pretty much the last 60 years, being highly Geared or Levered, was usually an advantage, as income rolled in from everywhere, to pay off the Debt, in a Global Economy that was virtually guaranteed to grow, in a world blessed with a growing Population, Cheap & abundant Energy sources & apparently limitless Other Essential Resources!

In fact, the higher the Debt, the better.
If you owed the Bank a little and you had a problem, then YOU HAD THE PROBLEM!
Whereas, if you & your mates owed the Bank a ShipLoad and you had a problem, then THE BANK HAD THE PROBLEM!

However, nothing lasts forever and one day the inevitable happens, the Assets you acquired (by virtue of Debt) are now worth less than what you owe on the Debt or in some instances the assets really were “worthless” (subprime mortgages) OR your income declines, to the point where you can not make the required payments.

You may perceive the need to transfer surplus income into paying your Debt down or off, if you have any surplus income?
If you don’t have sufficient surplus income or not enough income or no income at all, then you may voluntarily decide to sell some or all of your assets, until the Debt is cleared? Of course, the Bank may make that decision, in-voluntary!

If there is only one of you or you are a small entity, then YOU HAVE A DELEVERAGING PROBLEM!
If there are many of you & you are large entities, with a particular Bank, THEN THAT BANK ALSO HAS A DELVERAGING PROBLEM!
If the whole nation has similar problems, then THERE IS A SYSTEMIC DELEVERAGING PROBLEM and the problem again becomes one for EVERY TAXPAYER!

In the current instance, pretty much every country in the world will be Deleveraging simultaneously!

There are two obvious ways to deleverage –
1)      Pay down or off, the relevant Debt.
2)      Increase income/earnings or Capital in the case of a business, possibly via more Borrowings.

Given the current Financial settings, where Banks are also deleveraging, many are finding & will continue to find, increased borrowings quite difficult.
And, given the Marco Global settings of reducing Demand, due to Baby Boomer retirements, a slowing Population growth rate & a decline in the Consumers disposable income, many will also find increasing their net income will also be quite difficult in future.

Is this correct? Well, yes and all we need to do, is look at the Japanese experience since 1990, to confirm it. Japanese businesses & Private individuals have been hunkering down since 1990, when their Aging Population started to impact their economy. Notwithstanding, that the Japanese had the rest of the world still going gangbusters until around 2005, the Japanese are still in the Deleveraging Doldrums Two decades later and the Japanese didn’t even have Peak Oil to contend with, until recently, when it bust forth onto the world.

So, paying down Private & Business Debt, that’s all there is, CORRECT?

Well, actually no! There’s more, quite a bit more!

For starters there is Government Debt, which in the case of Japan, the USA and many other countries, Government Debt has been rising quickly in the form of Economic Stimulus packages & Corporate Bailouts, as Private & Business Debt may or may not have been declining. The effect is, in the main, that net Debt or Total Debt to GDP ratio’s are still as high or even higher now, than was the case in 2007. You see, all Debt, whether it starts as Private, Business or Government, will finally revert back to the national consumer and in one way, shape or form, the Public will pay!

In the case of the USA, Private individuals and Business have started paying down Debt, but the two recent governments & the Federal Reserve Bank have gone on a Debt binge, with the net result being that the total US Debt has not yet started to De-lever.  

In fact, many countries, including the USA, are going down the Japanese path, in the mistaken belief that things will eventually return to “normal” & the Politicians now in charge, won’t have “the collapse” on their watch?

The fact is, that due to Baby Boomer retirements, a slowing Population growth rate, Peak Energy, Climate Change & the massive existing Debt, things are not going to return to normal and at some point, we will have to voluntarily start the process of Deleveraging or others (China) may make the decision in-voluntary!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #84 - Sep 23rd, 2010 at 12:28pm
 
Leverage & Deleveraging (Cont)


So, at last, that’s it, that’s all there is, CORRECT?
Well, actually no! There’s quite a bit more!

For starters, we have only talked about Real or Tangible Debt, where Private Individuals, Business & Government have acquired Assets of a Physical or Intellectual Property nature, which were funded by future Earnings.

But for many decades now, Politicians (in many countries), Economists & others, have also Borrowed from the future, in order to fund various issues of their day, thinking that the future would always grow and generate the funds needed, then.
THE POLITICIANS & ECONOMISTS WERE WRONG!

Tomorrow has now become today & just as the Baby Boomers are starting to retire, the promise of their pensions, their Self Funded Superannuation schemes, Share Markets, Real Estate prices & their Aging medical care, ARE ALL EVAPORATING, leaving a mountain of UNFUNDED OR UNDERFUNDED Government Liabilities, which do not show up as Debt, but these Liabilities will need to be paid in full, thus greatly increasing future Debt or paid in part or defaulted on and any of those actions will make an already bad situation, worse, in some way or another!
...

Above is a snapshot of the Canadian situation, where the total Population is somewhat higher than Australia, but the Demographics situation is similar to OZ & for that matter much of the world. It is the Baby Boomer Bulge that is set to cause so many difficulties, with not only unfunded Pension & Medical Liabilities, but also the substantial decline in Demand that must come in all areas of Products & Services, as the following generations are relatively less in numbers, but they will also be less well endowed financially, as this GFC wears on, year after year!  
In the case of the USA, the unfunded Liabilities are estimated at anything from US$50-$80 Trillion!

...

The above chart demonstrates how expenditure and investment changes during various periods of life. Whilst the chart suggests that Spending Peaks at 46.5 years and savings then start to take precedent, I usually prefer the range between 45-55 years old, with 50 being the Peak.  
Whichever is the case, the boomer generation decline in spending & increase in savings, will now become increasingly noticeable and that will contribute towards Deleveraging & the slowing of the overall Global Economy!

So, paying down Private, Business & Government Debt, plus unfunded Government Liabilities, that’s all there is, CORRECT?
Well, actually no! There’s more, quite a bit more!

You see, the entire Global Monetary system is based on the proposition that the Economy will, in fact MUST, continue to grow forever, so the entire Economic system is leveraged to a claim that Future Earnings will always be exponentially larger than before, which contravenes at least 2 basic laws –
1)      The laws of nature prescribe that exponential growth of anything, is not possible in a finite world!
2)      Dr Albert Bartlett’s First law of Sustainability, is that Population growth (human) &/or growth in the rates of Consumption of Resources CAN NOT BE SUSTAINED!

But our Monetary system is not the only Macro Economic factor, which involves our Economic system Leveraging that Factor against Future Earnings and where the system assumes the exponential growth of that factor!

Also in that same boat, the Titanic, are –
1)      The never ending Growth of Human Population, which delivers a claim of future human labour.
2)      An ever improving pool of human Knowledge & Innovation, which delivers on the necessity for future claims on increased Productivity.
3)      A Limitless Supply of Cheap & Abundant Energy, including Transport, which is necessary to enable all of the other claims on the future, to become reality!    

Let me be abundantly clear, Exponential Growth of anything, in a finite world, IS NOT POSSIBLE, over time and we are now approaching a many of those limits!
All of the above will eventually come to an end, the only thing in doubt, IS THE MATTER OF TIMING.
That said, human Population growth & Energy Supply are now Peaking and within a relatively short span of time, both will start to Decline, without mitigation having started.

There is then, only one remaining possible bastion of hope for the Monetary, Economic system and a massive Global Deleveraging against future expectations and that is that the human condition of Intellect, will outweigh the other human conditions of Wrath, Greed, Sloth, Pride, Lust, Envy & Gluttony?

Now, that may be entirely possible and I hope it is!

But I just don’t believe that good Global Economic Policy, with so much riding on the outcomes, can be left to such a wing & a prayer?

Good luck & watch the Debt!

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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #85 - Sep 23rd, 2010 at 12:38pm
 
Amadd wrote on Sep 23rd, 2010 at 8:37am:
Quote:
Exponential economic growth is possible because it is not a measure of natural resources. It is a measure of many man-made or artificial forms of capital, including knowledge, which have no obvious constraints. Many of the 'laymans' critiques of economics confuse exponential economic growth with exponential gorwth in natural resource consumption, when in fact a technology that allows you to get the same service with fewer natural resources is highly valuable, even though it manifests as a reduction in consumption.


I really wish that were true, but logic tells me that our economic growth is reliant on natural resources, and most especially oil.

Whatever category of business you wish to choose, you will find that the bottom-line is usually dependent on resources, either directly or indirectly.
Yes, there are "the arts" which require minimal resources, but that doesn't put bread on the table.
The problem, is that most businesses rely on the relative cheapness of fossil fuels to even exist.
Also, it's no secret that an increase in (working age) immigrants will also help bolster the economy. They could also be called a "resource", which requires additional resources for them to add to the economy.

I really do feel that it's a tangled web that we have woven.
In our current economic situation, which is geared to, and reliant on, "oil", it's doomed to a massive failure well before the oil reserves run out.
It's already getting harder and more expensive to extract oil. And that is being reflected in the price right now.

I wouldn't be suprised at all if the U.S. had sacrificed the lives of a few thousand civilians to ensure a short sighted economic success, which in actuality may not be all that short sighted, although extremely immoral.

I noted a recent discussion here with Helian, where there were some takers for sacrificing moral values for a more economical outcome.
I wasn't surprised at all about the small decisions that justified a lack of personal morals for the possible outcome of a greater good. That wrestle has existed well before the emergence of religions.

Quote:
No matter what political reasons are given for war, the underlying reason is always economic.
A. J. P. Taylor


Oil is the reason, but it is a finite source which cannot support growth for the entire planet in the manner that we've been using it.
You may say FD, that increased consumption of natural resources is not imperative for a growing economy. History tells us different story.

The economics is what it's all about. Biofuels, solar, windpower, etc. They cannot match value of oil. Nothing can thus far.
Whoever controls the oil has economic supremacy.



It would seem, we are on a similar wavelength!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #86 - Sep 23rd, 2010 at 9:52pm
 
I didn't ask you to copy and paste a bunch of possible meanings. I asked you what you meant when you used the term.
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #87 - Sep 23rd, 2010 at 10:18pm
 
freediver wrote on Sep 23rd, 2010 at 9:52pm:
I didn't ask you to copy and paste a bunch of possible meanings. I asked you what you meant when you used the term.


I copied & pasted 2 charts, to assist with what I was saying, the rest is me.

That said, I am happy that what I have said, addresses the issues!
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Re: Keynesianism
Reply #88 - Oct 26th, 2010 at 11:54am
 
The Paradox of Capitalism: The Relevance of John Maynard Keynes


John Maynard Keynes, though bourgeois in his outlook, was a remarkably insightful economist, whose book Economic Consequences of the Peace was copiously quoted by Lenin at the Second Congress of the Communist International to argue that conditions had ripened for the world revolution.  But even Keynes' insights could not fully comprehend the paradox that is capitalism.

In a famous essay "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren", written in 1930, Keynes had argued: "Assuming no important wars and no important increase in population, the economic problem may be solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years.  This means that the economic problem is not, if we look into the future, the permanent problem of the human race" (emphasis in the original).

True, after Keynes had written there was the Second World War, but thereafter mankind has had six and a half decades without any "important war" of the sort that could interrupt what he had called the "era of progress and invention".  And the rate of population growth has also not accelerated to a point that can be considered to have invalidated Keynes' premise.

Dichotomy Structurally Inbuilt in Capitalism
Keynes missed this structural aspect of capitalism.  His entire argument in fact was based on the mere logic of compound interest, i.e. on the sheer fact that "if capital increases, say, 2 percent per annum, the capital equipment of the world will have increased by a half in twenty years, and seven and a half times in a hundred years".  From this sheer fact it follows that output too would have increased more or less by a similar order of magnitude, and mankind, with so much more of goods at its disposal, would have overcome the struggle for subsistence.  The reason Keynes assumed that an increase in the mass of goods would eventually benefit everyone lies not just in his inability to see the antagonistic nature of the capitalist mode of production (and its antagonistic relationship with the surrounding universe of petty producers), but also in his belief that capitalism is a malleable system which can be moulded, in accordance with the dictates of reason, by the interventions of the State as the representative of society.  He was a liberal and saw the state as standing above, and acting on behalf of, society as a whole, in accordance with the dictates of reason.  The world, he thought, was ruled by ideas; and correct, and benevolent, ideas would clearly translate themselves into reality, so that the increase in mankind's productive capacity would get naturally transformed into an end of the economic problem.  If the antagonism of capitalism was pointed out to Keynes, he would have simply talked about state intervention restraining this antagonism to ensure that the benefit of the increase in productive capacity reached all.

The state, instead of being an embodiment of reason, which intervenes in the interests of society as a whole, as liberalism believes, acts to defend the class interests of the hegemonic class, and hence to perpetuate the antagonisms of the capitalist system.

Antagonisms in Three Distinct Ways
These antagonisms perpetuate in three quite distinct ways the struggle for subsistence in which the bulk of mankind is caught.  The first centres around the fact that the level of wages in the capitalist system depends upon the relative size of the reserve army of labour.  And to the extent that the relative size of the reserve army of labour never shrinks below a certain threshold level, the wage rate remains tied to the subsistence level despite significant increases in labour productivity, as necessarily occur in the "era of progress and innovation".  Work itself therefore becomes a struggle for subsistence and remains so.  Secondly, those who constitute the reserve army of labour are themselves destitute and hence condemned to an even more acute struggle for subsistence, to eke out for themselves an even more meager magnitude of goods and services.  And thirdly, the encroachment by the capitalist mode upon the surrounding universe of petty production, whereby it displaces petty producers, grabs land from the peasants, uses the tax machinery of the State to appropriate for itself, at the expense of the petty producers, an amount of surplus value over and above what is produced within the capitalist mode itself, in short, the entire mechanism of "primitive accumulation of capital", ensures that the size of the reserve army always remains above this threshold level.

The growth rates of world output have been even greater in the post-war period than in Keynes' time.  The growth rates in particular capitalist countries like India have been of an order unimaginable in Keynes' time, and yet there is no let-up in the struggle for subsistence on the part of the bulk of the population even within these countries.

Keynes' faith in the miracle of compound interest would be justified in a socialist order, but not in a capitalist one.
Link -
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21603
================
As Socrates said, "The first step to wisdom is realizing that we know nothing."

Well, perhaps not nothing, but clearly Keynes did not aniticpate everything correctly and I suspect, nor do many of the Pollies, Economists or Establishment, Now!
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