perceptions_now
Gold Member
Offline
Australian Politics
Posts: 11694
Perth WA
Gender: 
|
Sappho wrote on Jun 12 th, 2011 at 12:32am: Amadd wrote on Sep 23 rd, 2010 at 8:37am: Quote:Exponential economic growth is possible because it is not a measure of natural resources. It is a measure of many man-made or artificial forms of capital, including knowledge, which have no obvious constraints. Many of the 'laymans' critiques of economics confuse exponential economic growth with exponential gorwth in natural resource consumption, when in fact a technology that allows you to get the same service with fewer natural resources is highly valuable, even though it manifests as a reduction in consumption. I really wish that were true, but logic tells me that our economic growth is reliant on natural resources, and most especially oil. Economic growth is reliant on consumer growth. There must be a consumer market of some kind and it must grow. Our theories demand it of us. That growth is in the service and manufactoring industries. The service industry is reliant on the manufacturing industry in order to deliver it's services and vice versa. The hairdresser needs the petrochemical industry in order that it may shampoo and condition your hair. The shampoo and conditioner needs to be packaged and petrochemical companies give us that packaging in plastic... they need a space to deliver that service which entails wood, concrete, metals, ceramics, plastic, glass and land. Then there is the transport industry to deliver these resources to where they are needed. It's not oil per-say that is the measure of economic growth. We could deliver services and products without petrochemical/oil based resources... but the consumer endlessly, mindlessly, amorally consuming the world at a rate faster than it can replace itself which is the real issue. We use natural resources in order to grow consumer demand and ensure economic growth. We are reliant on consumer demand for economic growth.
We don't have to be... but our theories tell us for some reason yet to be properly and morally explained that we should be because it is good. Whilst it is correct to say that we could deliver Goods & Services, without petrochemical/oil based resources, it would follow that unless those petrochemical/oil based resources were replaced by something else that would produce an equal excess of Energy, then the Goods & Services delivered would be reduced accordingly.
Given that there are no current replacements for not just Oil, but also Fossil Fuels in general, if that position does not change within the next 10-20 years, then the Global Economy will decline enormously!
What our Economists & Politicians say, isn't necessarily so! They seem to be under an impression that all points of the Economy can simply expand or grow exponentially and that everything can be fixed by "printing more money".
However, that goes against the laws of nature, which decrees that nothing can grow forever, as we are now in the process of confirming.
Many resources, including Fossil Fuels are now starting to bump into glass ceilings, as are the Debts of many countries, as is the Global growth in another of the great Economic drivers, that being Population Growth, which has been slowing for some time and which will start to actually decline, within 20-30 years.
So, over the next 20-30 years, Economic growth will start to decline, whatever Economists & Politicians say, the Local (OZ) & Global Economy will commencing shrinking.
We can either accept the new paradigm and get on with getting the best we can, out of the changed circumstances or we can try to continue with trying to retain the old status quo, in which case we will all end up with a lose - lose scenario.
This current Global Recession and the factors actually causing it, are like a Boa Constrictor, it will strangle the life out of us first, then swallow us whole!
Good luck & watch the Debt!
|
Forum
Pages: 
