Greens put heat on ALP


PREMIER John Brumby goes into next month's state election campaign with a strong lead over the Coalition but under threat from the surging Greens.

An Age/Nielsen poll taken this week shows Labor with 53 per cent of the vote after distribution of preferences from the Greens and other minor parties, and the Coalition on 47 per cent.

This is a swing to the Liberal and National parties of about 1.5 per cent since the November 2006 election - not enough for the Coalition to win, but indicating it could get within striking distance with an effective campaign.


The poll suggests Labor will lose seats to both the opposition and the Greens, and will have to rely heavily on Greens preferences to be returned to office.

Mr Brumby heads to the November 27 election with a commanding 52 per cent to 37 per cent lead over Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu as preferred premier - but the gap has narrowed slightly over this year.

The Greens are attracting 16 per cent of the primary vote, dramatically up from the 10 per cent they received at the last election.

In metropolitan Melbourne the Greens are recording a primary vote of 18 per cent, suggesting the minor party could cut a swathe through Labor's inner-city heartland, potentially winning four seats including two held by cabinet ministers.

If the poll results were replicated at the election, Labor would also be in danger of losing four seats to the Coalition in the eastern suburbs, including another two held by ministers.

The Labor seats in danger of falling to the Liberals are: Mount Waverley (held by Women's Affairs Minister Maxine Morand with a margin of just 0.3 per cent), Gembrook (backbencher Tammy Lobato, 0.7 per cent), Forest Hill (backbencher Kirstie Marshall, 0.8 per cent) and Mitcham (Gaming Minister Tony Robinson, 2 per cent).

The government-held seats under threat from the Greens are: Melbourne (held by Education Minister Bronwyn Pike with a margin of 2 per cent), Richmond (Housing Minister Richard Wynne, 3.6 per cent), Brunswick (3.6 per cent, being contested for Labor by Yarra mayor Jane Garrett) and possibly Northcote (held by parliamentary secretary Fiona Richardson with a margin of 8.5 per cent).

Labor would lose its majority in the lower house, producing a hung parliament, if it lost a total of 11 seats. The Coalition needs to win a total of 13 extra seats to win government in its own right.

Federal Greens leader Bob Brown has left open the possibility of his party entering into a power-sharing alliance with the Victorian Coalition if the election produces a hung parliament.

He said in Melbourne yesterday that the Greens had every right to negotiate with either side of politics if it meant getting a better deal for their supporters. ''The Greens have always, in our history, talked with all sides about issues and we'll continue to do so,'' Senator Brown said.

His comments are likely to inflame tensions with the Brumby government, which accuses the Greens of being willing to ''sell out'' their left-leaning supporters in pursuit of power.

The Age/Nielsen telephone poll of 1000 voters across the state, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, shows Labor's primary vote at 38 per cent, down from 43 at the last election. The Coalition's primary vote is also 38 per cent (down 2 points).

The Premier's approval rating has fallen slightly over the course of the year, from 52 per cent in the last Age/Nielsen poll, taken in January, to 51 per cent now. His disapproval rating has increased, from 37 per cent to 41 per cent.

Mr Baillieu's approval rating is up over the year from 40 per cent to 43 per cent. His disapproval rating is also up marginally, from 45 per cent to 46 per cent.

In a disturbing finding for the Liberals and Nationals, the poll shows Labor is ahead of the Coalition not just in metropolitan Melbourne (53 per cent to 47 per cent) but in the rest of Victoria (52 per cent to 48 per cent).

Labor's lead is strongest among women and young voters. The only age

Fingers crossed, that the right whingers don't seize power in any Vic or any other States...

Even in NSW - as bad as the NSW Labs are, they are basically bad in the same way as the NSW Libs are...

Verge wrote on Oct 30^th, 2010 at 10:15am:


Labor have been in office in NSW for too long and it is past time for a change, they have had a number of sensational issues but have not been a bad government overall.

They would have lost the last term had the Libn's not committed political suicide by undermining a competent leader in favour of a move to the right and showing that they were economically incompetent by promising about $20 billion of unfunded spending.

While the Libn's are overwhelming favourites next year they still seem to me to be too great a risk with an elitist leader already shown to be lacking with incidents like the power sell off etc.

They are playing small target but it may get interesting when they finally try to say something, people in NSW are fairly good at identifying a turkey when they see one so the numbers could change quite quickly late in the piece.

Labor (and their voters) are always holding onto something!!


bwaaaahaaa

Piss off back to the school yard fikten! Take your bucket and spade with you...

Equitist wrote on Oct 30^th, 2010 at 9:01am:


I don't think Labor have much hope in NSW ( right at the moment anyway) Last night's news had the Premier's poll at 35%.....Compared to Barry O'Farrell at 42%....

Considering how unpopular O'Farrell was in NSW......that's a big change...

gizmo_2655 wrote on Oct 30^th, 2010 at 10:47am:



You only need to look at how close Abbott got to realise that in the right situation a very poor leader can be elected.

After a long term when change is well overdue the situation is right for the people to make a very poor decision, the need for change becomes greater then the reason for it or the probable result.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/10/30/3052692.htm

What ever happens, i hope this institution has absolutely nothing more to do with it.

Think i might "pray" for a massive green vote