Australian Politics Forum - Greens are on the road to NOWHERE

Tony Bradshaw

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Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
May 16^th, 2011 at 10:55am

After polling well in the 2010 federal election, since then it has been all downhill for Bob Brown's Greens Party. In the lead up to the Victorian election they were polling close to 17% but ended up with 11% and no lower house seats at all. Similarly the Greens had an absolute SHOCKER at the 2011 NSW election again polling a miserable 10.3% and picked up only 1 lower house seat (Balmain) with a primary vote of only 30.3% due to a tight 3-way contest. In other words the new Greens MP Jamie Parker won the seat when 70% of the Balmain electorate did not vote for him.

To add to this, the federal Greens were polling 16% a few months back but have now sunk back to 10%, even 9% in some Essential Research polls.

I think the Greens have peaked and it is all downhill from here. I still think they will be around for a few more years yet though, probably hovering around the 7-8% mark for quite a while. But their time has passed, Bob will soon be retiring and will leave a disorganised extremist rabble in his wake. With the likes of SHY and Lee Rhiannon lying in waiting I think its safe to say the Greens best days are likely to have passed.

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longweekend58

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #1 - May 16^th, 2011 at 11:00am

Tony Bradshaw wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 10:55am:

After polling well in the 2010 federal election, since then it has been all downhill for Bob Brown's Greens Party. In the lead up to the Victorian election they were polling close to 17% but ended up with 11% and no lower house seats at all. Similarly the Greens had an absolute SHOCKER at the 2011 NSW election again polling a miserable 10.3% and picked up only 1 lower house seat (Balmain) with a primary vote of only 30.3% due to a tight 3-way contest. In other words the new Greens MP Jamie Parker won the seat when 70% of the Balmain electorate did not vote for him.

To add to this, the federal Greens were polling 16% a few months back but have now sunk back to 10%, even 9% in some Essential Research polls.

I think the Greens have peaked and it is all downhill from here. I still think they will be around for a few more years yet though, probably hovering around the 7-8% mark for quite a while. But their time has passed, Bob will soon be retiring and will leave a disorganised extremist rabble in his wake. With the likes of SHY and Lee Rhiannon lying in waiting I think its safe to say the Greens best days are likely to have passed.

as soon as the Greens got near the levers of power theur true policies came to the fore as well as their true incompetence.

Their time has come and gone. I predict 6% at the next election and 4% at the one after that. beyond that they wil compete against Family First!

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cods

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #2 - May 16^th, 2011 at 11:13am

as soon as the Greens got near the levers of power theur true policies came to the fore as well as their true incompetence.

Their time has come and gone. I predict 6% at the next election and 4% at the one after that. beyond that they wil compete against Family First!

yes Power does funny things doesnt it... booby now is faced with the responsibility of putting his hand up for the CARBON TAX..

July will even say a lot more about this party. could be a brawl or two with the independents...lol.. will be interesting to see how well the greens like being critised.for their policies...as this is what it could all come down too..

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sir prince duke alevine Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 23619 Gender:	Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE Reply #3 - May 16^th, 2011 at 11:40am Greens are hurting because they are getting some confliction within their own base. But don't be too worried - unlike other third options who eventually sold out, so far the Greens have kept to their policies, and if anything that will continue to gain them support.
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longweekend58

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #4 - May 16^th, 2011 at 11:48am

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:40am:

Greens are hurting because they are getting some confliction within their own base.

But don't be too worried - unlike other third options who eventually sold out, so far the Greens have kept to their policies, and if anything that will continue to gain them support.

ironically it is KEEPING to their policies which is killing them. it is a delusion to think that 11% of people voted green because of their policies. They were recipients of PROTEST votes - mainly from Labor supporters. but once the Greens start to try and enforce their policies thos protest votes are drying up. It was an arrogant assumption that Greens voters were actually Greens SUPPORTERS.

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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #5 - May 16^th, 2011 at 11:50am

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:48am:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:40am:

Greens are hurting because they are getting some confliction within their own base.

But don't be too worried - unlike other third options who eventually sold out, so far the Greens have kept to their policies, and if anything that will continue to gain them support.

ironically it is KEEPING to their policies which is killing them. it is a delusion to think that 11% of people voted green because of their policies. They were recipients of PROTEST votes - mainly from Labor supporters. but once the Greens start to try and enforce their policies thos protest votes are drying up. It was an arrogant assumption that Greens voters were actually Greens SUPPORTERS.

Actually it's been widely analysed that the reason Greens obtained such a high result than normal is because they were the only party that actually stood for something at the last election.

Now a bit of that is wearing off because the election is over, and yes some people are going back to their preferred party.

What surprises me is that so many liberals are so stupid as to at one stage Vote for the Greens, who are a LEFT PARTY, and then return to their RIGHT of CENTRE party?? Yeh. Nice work. Just goes to show what type of people vote for the Coalition, and who their policies are targeted at.

Grin

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longweekend58

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #6 - May 16^th, 2011 at 11:59am

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:50am:

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:48am:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:40am:

Greens are hurting because they are getting some confliction within their own base.

But don't be too worried - unlike other third options who eventually sold out, so far the Greens have kept to their policies, and if anything that will continue to gain them support.

ironically it is KEEPING to their policies which is killing them. it is a delusion to think that 11% of people voted green because of their policies. They were recipients of PROTEST votes - mainly from Labor supporters. but once the Greens start to try and enforce their policies thos protest votes are drying up. It was an arrogant assumption that Greens voters were actually Greens SUPPORTERS.

Actually it's been widely analysed that the reason Greens obtained such a high result than normal is because they were the only party that actually stood for something at the last election.

Now a bit of that is wearing off because the election is over, and yes some people are going back to their preferred party.

What surprises me is that so many liberals are so stupid as to at one stage Vote for the Greens, who are a LEFT PARTY, and then return to their RIGHT of CENTRE party?? Yeh. Nice work. Just goes to show what type of people vote for the Coalition, and who their policies are targeted at.

Grin

whoever said that was an idiot. The greens are primarily recipients of PROTEST votes. but now that the Greens are getting an actual say in power their support i drying up. possibly the communist senator isnt helping nor the anti-semitic policies. neither plays very well in australia. and half of their vote is for Bob Brown personally. he is quitting next election so bye bye to a LOT of votes!

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #7 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:07pm

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:59am:

whoever said that was an idiot. The greens are primarily recipients of PROTEST votes. but now that the Greens are getting an actual say in power their support i drying up. possibly the communist senator isnt helping nor the anti-semitic policies. neither plays very well in australia. and half of their vote is for Bob Brown personally. he is quitting next election so bye bye to a LOT of votes!

Again, it's widely seen that Greens were a party with conviction at the last election, unlike the Libs and Labor who just whined about each other - resulting in the election result we got.

As for the rest, you can sit and predict all you like, and make assumptions, but in the end, I am agreeing that many idiotic normally right-wing voters came over to the Greens last time, and this is now seen to be heading back over and normalising.

Greens will only see vote increases with more people moving their ideology over to the left, away from the centre.

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skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE Reply #8 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:08pm Quote: half of their vote is for Bob Brown personally. he is quitting next election so bye bye to a LOT of votes! The delusional dipsh it is at it again.
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buzzanddidj

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #9 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:10pm

Tony Bradshaw wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 10:55am:

After polling well in the 2010 federal election, since then it has been all downhill for Bob Brown's Greens Party..

It’s worth asking, however, whether it’s bad enough to justify the doom-laden or gleeful (depending on one’s point of view) commentary in the media to the effect that the Greens are on the way out. By way of background, I’ve collated the

Greens’ primary vote in the last five elections

in each jurisdiction, summarised below

http://elections.uwa.edu.au/electionsearch.lasso

With the exception of two elections in Tasmania, their best state, the Greens vote has never declined anywhere in the whole period: a remarkable record. Nor is there any compelling evidence that the growth is slowing — witness the large jumps at their most recent outings in Western Australia, Tasmania, the ACT and federally.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/30/nsw-election-good-news-and-bad-news-for-gree...

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longweekend58

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #10 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:14pm

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 12:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:59am:

whoever said that was an idiot. The greens are primarily recipients of PROTEST votes. but now that the Greens are getting an actual say in power their support i drying up. possibly the communist senator isnt helping nor the anti-semitic policies. neither plays very well in australia. and half of their vote is for Bob Brown personally. he is quitting next election so bye bye to a LOT of votes!

Again, it's widely seen that Greens were a party with conviction at the last election, unlike the Libs and Labor who just whined about each other - resulting in the election result we got.

As for the rest, you can sit and predict all you like, and make assumptions, but in the end, I am agreeing that many idiotic normally right-wing voters came over to the Greens last time, and this is now seen to be heading back over and normalising.

Greens will only see vote increases with more people moving their ideology over to the left, away from the centre.

you dont know much about our electoral system it seems. The Greens picked up disaffected LABOR voters - not voters in general. and what you call 'conviction' is meaningless unless it is teste in the heat of actual legislation and public acceptance. it is easy to maintain convictions - even if they are stupid ones - when you never have to implement them. Labor and Liberal actually have to form real policies that work int eh real world and to compromise and negotiate them into being. Teh Greens just sit onthe side, vote No all the time and then declare themselves to be ideologically pure. they are a worthless rabble.

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longweekend58

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #11 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:18pm

buzzanddidj wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 12:10pm:

Tony Bradshaw wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 10:55am:

After polling well in the 2010 federal election, since then it has been all downhill for Bob Brown's Greens Party..

It’s worth asking, however, whether it’s bad enough to justify the doom-laden or gleeful (depending on one’s point of view) commentary in the media to the effect that the Greens are on the way out. By way of background, I’ve collated the

Greens’ primary vote in the last five elections

in each jurisdiction, summarised below

http://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/richgraph.jpg

http://elections.uwa.edu.au/electionsearch.lasso

With the exception of two elections in Tasmania, their best state, the Greens vote has never declined anywhere in the whole period: a remarkable record. Nor is there any compelling evidence that the growth is slowing — witness the large jumps at their most recent outings in Western Australia, Tasmania, the ACT and federally.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/30/nsw-election-good-news-and-bad-news-for-gree...

and like all stats they can be used dishonestly - just as you have done. using elections as the ONLY data points enables you to come to your totally incorrect conclusion. using polls and other data you see the very clear trend than the GReens are dropping. Using your methodology, you will be the LAST one to discover this fact as you only read electionresults. but the rest of us see the GReens shedding 7% in NSW, 5% in Vic and 6% federally in the last 6 months.

Keep your delusions if you wish but the rest of us - and other commentators - are syaing the same thing: that the Greens are dropping.

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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #12 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:18pm

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 12:14pm:

you dont know much about our electoral system it seems. The Greens picked up disaffected LABOR voters - not voters in general. and what you call 'conviction' is meaningless unless it is teste in the heat of actual legislation and public acceptance. it is easy to maintain convictions - even if they are stupid ones - when you never have to implement them. Labor and Liberal actually have to form real policies that work int eh real world and to compromise and negotiate them into being. Teh Greens just sit onthe side, vote No all the time and then declare themselves to be ideologically pure. they are a worthless rabble.

That would be true except for the fact that Greens have lost voters, and these losses haven't re-emerged in Labor, but instead in Liberals.

Goes to show who has NO IDEA about the electoral system, or how to analyse...except of course for what his lovely rightards tell him from News Ltd.

As for convictions, what complete rubbish you just spewed. Parties have their policies, and regardless of where they are in being able to legislate, they must hold to these policies. That's how the results in compromise and negotiations come to be. You complete whack.

And for voting No all the time - are you completely lost in today's political scene? It's the coalition who ALWAYS votes no. Greens may vote no, they THEN comprimise and negotiate with Labor as to their own political views and policies, and then will pass the legislation through. All but the ETS has this occurred.

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progressiveslol

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #13 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:20pm

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:50am:

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:48am:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 11:40am:

Greens are hurting because they are getting some confliction within their own base.

But don't be too worried - unlike other third options who eventually sold out, so far the Greens have kept to their policies, and if anything that will continue to gain them support.

ironically it is KEEPING to their policies which is killing them. it is a delusion to think that 11% of people voted green because of their policies. They were recipients of PROTEST votes - mainly from Labor supporters. but once the Greens start to try and enforce their policies thos protest votes are drying up. It was an arrogant assumption that Greens voters were actually Greens SUPPORTERS.

Actually it's been widely analysed that the reason Greens obtained such a high result than normal is because they were the only party that actually stood for something at the last election.

Now a bit of that is wearing off because the election is over, and yes some people are going back to their preferred party.

What surprises me is that so many liberals are so stupid as to at one stage Vote for the Greens, who are a LEFT PARTY, and then return to their RIGHT of CENTRE party?? Yeh. Nice work. Just goes to show what type of people vote for the Coalition, and who their policies are targeted at.

Grin

Protest vote more like it. Even if it were remotely true of what you say, the people who voted are now being woken to what they voted for and are doing a u-turn.

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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Greens are on the road to NOWHERE
Reply #14 - May 16^th, 2011 at 12:22pm

progressiveslol wrote on May 16^th, 2011 at 12:20pm:

Protest vote more like it. Even if it were remotely true of what you say, the people who voted are now being woken to what they voted for and are doing a u-turn.

The fact that people vote for a Left Party and then move back to a Right of Centre party just goes to show how out of tune some Australians are with politics. No wonder Tony can get away with little slogans to his constituents, if they are so stupid as to vote for a completely different ideology to what they normally believe.

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