Australian Politics Forum - The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!

longweekend58

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The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
May 17^th, 2011 at 6:30pm

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/the-greens-say-the-carbon-tax-will-need-to-be-far-above-40-a-tonne-while-the-government-says-it-will-be-well-south/story-fn59niix-1226057628289

As predicted, the Greens have said they want a very severe Carbon tax price, far above that which the government is willing to introduce. They are alse on record as saying they want NO compensation for industry and zero compensation for anyone other than the poor.

This is a scenario that Gillard cannot contemplate or anything even remotely like it. To try that would split the Labor party down the middle and destroy her govt and probably render them unelectable to 10-15 years - or more.

The Greens are an absolutist party. They dont negotiate or compromise. If they dont get their own way, they vote NO as was their record of voting against 96% of legislation in the previous government (source: Anthony Albanese). When the carbon tax goes to the lower house it will probably fail as it needs every vote to pass. If by some miracle the dimwitted Adam Bandt votes FOR it, it has no chance in the senate where even more left-wing idealogues await it.

When - not if - the carbon tax fails, what of Gillard? The Greens alliance-from-hell will be effectively over and her government with it. She will be unable to govern with virtually all legislation unlikely to pass.

She has tried to dance with the devil, but the devil will destroy her and possibnly her party as well.

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freediver

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #1 - May 17^th, 2011 at 7:07pm

I think there is a limit to how far the greens can push this before it starts to push voters the opposite way.

The amount of the tax is a non-issue. Surely it is better to have a low tax than no tax at all. They can raise the rate later.

Industry compensation is also a bit of a furphy. A lot of this is protection for trade exposed industries. The alternative to this risks sending jobs and pollution overseas, where the environmental standards could be a lot lower.

It is getting absurd with everyone playing politics on this one. People accuse Rudd of destroying his CPRS by pushing the coalition into a corner where they had to oppose it. This will be the second time the Greens oppose climate change legislation. The first time they could get away with because the CPRS was a bit of a monster in terms of complexity. Opposing the tax will be a lot harder to pull off.

Then again, the Greens may not have much choice either. Once we have effective greenhouse legislation the drift of voters to the Greens will stop. Preventing the legislation while trying to blame it on Labor may be their only way to grow. The risk of course is that the coalition and Labor may come up with a bipartisan agreement and move forward without the Greens.

If the greens do block this tax, I will be putting Labor ahead of them next election.

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nairbe

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #2 - May 17^th, 2011 at 7:20pm

The greens can push for some change but essentially they must pass this legislation and all major government policy or it will be the end of the greens as a balance of power in the senate for ever. This would be a tragedy for the country as the last thing we need is one of the majors controlling the senate.
Basically the current atmosphere dictates that the government must pass the carbon tax and it must work or they are history long term.

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Flying Binghi Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 252 Australia Gender:	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #3 - May 17^th, 2011 at 7:41pm Quote: ...Then again, the Greens may not have much choice either. Once we have effective greenhouse legislation the drift of voters to the Greens will stop. Preventing the legislation while trying to blame it on Labor may be their only way to grow... Interesting observation there freediver.. .
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creep Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1881	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #4 - May 17^th, 2011 at 7:49pm The greens are bluffing. Brown just wants to remind Gillard as to who is running the government. Brown is always whinging about how Gillard is not listening to the greens demands so has done this little stunt to try and get Gillard worried.
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Maqqa Gold Member Offline 14% - that low?! Posts: 16000	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #5 - May 17^th, 2011 at 7:59pm freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 7:07pm: I think there is a limit to how far the greens can push this before it starts to push voters the opposite way. judging by recent polls where their votes have gone from 13% to 7% the best they can do is bluff ie a 38% drop in support
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Maqqa

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #6 - May 17^th, 2011 at 8:02pm

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 7:07pm:

Then again, the Greens may not have much choice either. Once we have effective greenhouse legislation the drift of voters to the Greens will stop. Preventing the legislation while trying to blame it on Labor may be their only way to grow. The risk of course is that the coalition and Labor may come up with a bipartisan agreement and move forward without the Greens.

the the Greens' vote dived by 38% so there is no drift to the Greens

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creep

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #7 - May 17^th, 2011 at 8:05pm

Maqqa wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 7:59pm:

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 7:07pm:

I think there is a limit to how far the greens can push this before it starts to push voters the opposite way.

judging by recent polls where their votes have gone from 13% to 7% the best they can do is bluff ie a 38% drop in support

From 13% to 7%, isn't that a drop of around 46% support?
(13-6=7, 6/13 =46%)
Only the gullible gerties are still following the greens

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Maqqa Gold Member Offline 14% - that low?! Posts: 16000	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #8 - May 17^th, 2011 at 8:07pm thank you creep for the correct
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astro_surf Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2981	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #9 - May 17^th, 2011 at 8:47pm So basically the article doesn't say anything like what the OP is suggesting? Yes, the denier a lying s**tbags who will graso\p at any opportunity to discredit their opponents and let the truth be damned! Bunch of sad tossers really.
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Tony Bradshaw Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 348 Sydney Gender:	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #10 - May 17^th, 2011 at 9:02pm The Greens will pass the legislation. They don't have a choice, their future as a credible party depends on it.
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Maeve Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 304	Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax! Reply #11 - May 18^th, 2011 at 8:38am Have a listen to Brown being made a fool of over carbon. http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
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longweekend58

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #12 - May 18^th, 2011 at 8:52am

astro_surf wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 8:47pm:

So basically the article doesn't say anything like what the OP is suggesting? Yes, the denier a lying s**tbags who will graso\p at any opportunity to discredit their opponents and let the truth be damned! Bunch of sad tossers really.

If you have been around in politics longer than 10 mins ie NOT you, then you will have seen all this before. the Greens will NOT pass the Carbon tax unless they get most of what they want and that would be political suicide for Labor.

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longweekend58

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #13 - May 18^th, 2011 at 8:53am

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 7:07pm:

I think there is a limit to how far the greens can push this before it starts to push voters the opposite way.

The amount of the tax is a non-issue. Surely it is better to have a low tax than no tax at all. They can raise the rate later.

Industry compensation is also a bit of a furphy. A lot of this is protection for trade exposed industries. The alternative to this risks sending jobs and pollution overseas, where the environmental standards could be a lot lower.

It is getting absurd with everyone playing politics on this one. People accuse Rudd of destroying his CPRS by pushing the coalition into a corner where they had to oppose it. This will be the second time the Greens oppose climate change legislation. The first time they could get away with because the CPRS was a bit of a monster in terms of complexity. Opposing the tax will be a lot harder to pull off.

Then again, the Greens may not have much choice either. Once we have effective greenhouse legislation the drift of voters to the Greens will stop. Preventing the legislation while trying to blame it on Labor may be their only way to grow. The risk of course is that the coalition and Labor may come up with a bipartisan agreement and move forward without the Greens.

If the greens do block this tax, I will be putting Labor ahead of them next election.

The same argument applied to the ETS. better a tax that was low by their standards than to block it completely. it was absolutist politics and was little more than the Greens throwing a tanty.

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longweekend58

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Re: The Greens will not pass the Carbon Tax!
Reply #14 - May 18^th, 2011 at 8:59am

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 7:07pm:

I think there is a limit to how far the greens can push this before it starts to push voters the opposite way.

The amount of the tax is a non-issue. Surely it is better to have a low tax than no tax at all. They can raise the rate later.

Industry compensation is also a bit of a furphy. A lot of this is protection for trade exposed industries. The alternative to this risks sending jobs and pollution overseas, where the environmental standards could be a lot lower.

It is getting absurd with everyone playing politics on this one. People accuse Rudd of destroying his CPRS by pushing the coalition into a corner where they had to oppose it. This will be the second time the Greens oppose climate change legislation. The first time they could get away with because the CPRS was a bit of a monster in terms of complexity. Opposing the tax will be a lot harder to pull off.

Then again, the Greens may not have much choice either. Once we have effective greenhouse legislation the drift of voters to the Greens will stop. Preventing the legislation while trying to blame it on Labor may be their only way to grow. The risk of course is that the coalition and Labor may come up with a bipartisan agreement and move forward without the Greens.

If the greens do block this tax, I will be putting Labor ahead of them next election.

You must have missed the latest polls. the drift to the Greens stopped a while ago and it was the carbon tax that is actually causing their vote to plummet. This is because most voters for Greens arent actual Greens supporters - they vote Green as a protest only and since the carbon tax is massively unpopular and everyone believes it is the fault of the GReens then they are paying the electoral price.

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