Australian Politics Forum - The Soren Challenge

perceptions_now

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The Soren Challenge
May 19^th, 2011 at 8:24pm

perceptions_now wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 1:45pm:

Soren wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 11:04am:

GREENS leader Bob Brown says the coal mining industry should foot the bill for the Queensland floods because it helped cause them.

”It’s the single biggest cause, burning coal, for climate change and it must take its major share of responsibility for the weather events we are seeing unfolding now,” he said.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/coal-miners-to-blame-for-quee...

But not even the saucy IPCC head buys it:

SPECIFIC natural disasters such as Cyclone Yasi and the Brisbane floods could not be directly linked to man-made climate change, the world’s leading climate change authority said yesterday.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chairman Rajendra Pachauri said the general observation that climate change was bringing about an increase in extreme weather events was valid but scientists needed to provide much finer detail.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/summer-of-disaster-not-climate-...

Pachauri is a BOB BROWN DENIER!!!! Off with his comb-over!!

That would be quite correct!

Just as it would be a very large stretch to attribute a specific environmental factor, to the obesity of one specific person.

However, as time goes bye, the overall impact of the past & current environment, on human obesity, is becoming more apparent.

That analogy, is similar to how I would also view local, short term weather events and longer term Climate Change!

Climate Change, can also be compared (in some ways) to another rare/unique event called Peak Oil.

In 1956, Peak Oil was a rare phenomenon, only put up as a "theory" by one person, M. King. Hubbert.

Hubbert's Peak Oil theory was derided by most and confirmation of the fist part of that theory was still 14 years in the future, when the USA finally hit the Peak of the Oil Production in 1970 and US Oil Production is still in decline today, some 40 years later.

Around 2004-2006, depending on what statistic you believe, we also effectively hit Peak Oil, Globally, as predicted in Hubbert's Theory!

However, Hubbert's theory became much more than theory, well before Global Oil finally Peaked and if governments (local & Global) had moved early enough (say 20 years ago), then we would not be faced with a looming catastrophe, of such a magnitude.

The same goes for Climate Change, it has grown from small beginnings, to a point where the majority of Climate scientists are in broad agreement that our climate is heading for undesirable changes and that certain human related issues are contributing to that change.

So, again we have a choice, we can bury our heads in the sand and say they (the scientists) are wrong. We can take our chances and do nothing, like we did with Peak Oil and if we are right this time, then we will save a few $'s, lets say 5-10% of GDP.

However, if we do bury our heads, do nothing and it turns out that the majority of scientists were correct after all, then we have a far worse situation, than we currently have with Peak Oil.

If the scientists are correct and we do nothing in the way of mitigation, then the day will finally arrive, like Peak Oil, when it becomes obvious the Hubbert & the Climate scientists were correct and because the Climate Change timelines are so long, we will have consigned humanity to an unimaginably difficult future of great hardship.

Forget everything else about who is correct & who is not, about this ideology or that one,
the crucial question is what will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

====================
So, what are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing?

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perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #1 - May 21^st, 2011 at 8:25pm So, the challenge goes unanswered! Don't like the odds?
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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #2 - May 21^st, 2011 at 8:45pm We may run out of oil one day. We will never run out of climate. Do you feel challenged?
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perceptions_now

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #3 - May 21^st, 2011 at 11:36pm

Soren wrote on May 21^st, 2011 at 8:45pm:

We may run out of oil one day. We will never run out of climate.

Do you feel challenged?

The challenge is for you, sweetie!

And, the questions are -

What will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

What are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing?

In terms of Peak Oil, it isn't so much that we may run out of oil one day, that is actually a certainty, it's more about what happens to Global Economics & Politics, when -
The Peak Oil moment arrives and the flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met?

And, the start of the effects of that moment, can be seen in what has happened after 2005, when the Peak Oil moment did arrive!

Btw, you were nearly right with your line, "We will never run out of climate". But it should have read -
Climate will never run out!
The difference is relatively small, the main thing is, it may just leave out "we".

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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #4 - May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:03pm We will think of something else long before we run out oil or climate. We can be sure of one thing - we will not run out of creativity.
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perceptions_now

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #5 - May 22^nd, 2011 at 6:23pm

Soren wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:03pm:

We will think of something else long before we run out oil or climate.

We can be sure of one thing - we will not run out of creativity.

That's your answer, in place of "good Public policy", we will go will a "wing & a prayer" and hope that the "innovation cavalry" come riding over the hill, just in the nick of time, AGAIN?

You will note that I said, "in the nick of time" and that's because if we were going to "think of something else long before we run out", then we would have already done it!

As I have repeatedly said, in respect of Energy, Oil Production already effectively Peaked back in 2005 and short of another major Recession that will become glaringly obvious to almost all, over the next couple of years.

That said, I expect we will shortly see "the Recession we had to have", as Paul Keating would have put it!

As I have also said many times, we don't have to run out of Oil, for it to be a major problem.

In fact, Oil becomes a major problem when -
The flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met?

And, the start of the effects of that moment, can be seen in what has happened after 2005, when the Peak Oil moment did arrive!

Since then, it has been reflected in higher Energy & Food prices, it was reflected in the current GFC starting & it is still being reflected, as the Global Economy again sinks into recession, as many governments & central banks are now broke and can not continue their Keynesian efforts.

In respect of the Climate, I say again, the Climates time will never run out, but ours may well, unless we ALL take whatever mitigation measures are possible.

Again, forget everything else about who is correct & who is not, about this ideology or that one, the crucial question is what will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

So, Soren, what are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing? What cost/s would you deem necessary, to save not only your own future, but that of your children, their children and of future generations?

We fought wars for much less, what price would be too great too bear, for the survival of the human species?

The clock is ticking and time is shorter, than many may think!

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #6 - May 23^rd, 2011 at 9:55pm

perceptions_now wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 6:23pm:

Soren wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:03pm:

We will think of something else long before we run out oil or climate.

We can be sure of one thing - we will not run out of creativity.

That's your answer, in place of "good Public policy", we will go will a "wing & a prayer" and hope that the "innovation cavalry" come riding over the hill, just in the nick of time, AGAIN?

You will note that I said, "in the nick of time" and that's because if we were going to "think of something else long before we run out", then we would have already done it!

As I have repeatedly said, in respect of Energy, Oil Production already effectively Peaked back in 2005 and short of another major Recession that will become glaringly obvious to almost all, over the next couple of years.

That said, I expect we will shortly see "the Recession we had to have", as Paul Keating would have put it!

As I have also said many times, we don't have to run out of Oil, for it to be a major problem.

In fact, Oil becomes a major problem when -
The flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met?

And, the start of the effects of that moment, can be seen in what has happened after 2005, when the Peak Oil moment did arrive!

Since then, it has been reflected in higher Energy & Food prices, it was reflected in the current GFC starting & it is still being reflected, as the Global Economy again sinks into recession, as many governments & central banks are now broke and can not continue their Keynesian efforts.

In respect of the Climate, I say again, the Climates time will never run out, but ours may well, unless we ALL take whatever mitigation measures are possible.

Again, forget everything else about who is correct & who is not, about this ideology or that one, the crucial question is what will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

So, Soren, what are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing? What cost/s would you deem necessary, to save not only your own future, but that of your children, their children and of future generations?

We fought wars for much less, what price would be too great too bear, for the survival of the human species?

The clock is ticking and time is shorter, than many may think!

No response hey, did you feel challenged, sweetie?

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It_is_the_Darkness

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #7 - May 24^th, 2011 at 1:08am

ALL OUT THERMO-NUCLEAR WAR was a very real possibility that nearly happened. Lunatics like Ronny Reagan wanted a big gun on the moon (Death Star) to point back at earth and satellites for Star Wars attacks. The utter madness of it all.

So to say that the WORLD ISN'T POISENING ITSELF INTO ILL HEALTH is just another denial. It can happen.

War or Suicide. Too much or too little??
Military who over-do it or Medical who don't do enough??

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SUCKING ON MY TITTIES, LIKE I KNOW YOU WANT TO.

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Soren

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #8 - May 25^th, 2011 at 9:04pm

perceptions_now wrote on May 23^rd, 2011 at 9:55pm:

perceptions_now wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 6:23pm:

Soren wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:03pm:

We will think of something else long before we run out oil or climate.

We can be sure of one thing - we will not run out of creativity.

That's your answer, in place of "good Public policy", we will go will a "wing & a prayer" and hope that the "innovation cavalry" come riding over the hill, just in the nick of time, AGAIN?

You will note that I said, "in the nick of time" and that's because if we were going to "think of something else long before we run out", then we would have already done it!

As I have repeatedly said, in respect of Energy, Oil Production already effectively Peaked back in 2005 and short of another major Recession that will become glaringly obvious to almost all, over the next couple of years.

That said, I expect we will shortly see "the Recession we had to have", as Paul Keating would have put it!

As I have also said many times, we don't have to run out of Oil, for it to be a major problem.

In fact, Oil becomes a major problem when -
The flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met?

And, the start of the effects of that moment, can be seen in what has happened after 2005, when the Peak Oil moment did arrive!

Since then, it has been reflected in higher Energy & Food prices, it was reflected in the current GFC starting & it is still being reflected, as the Global Economy again sinks into recession, as many governments & central banks are now broke and can not continue their Keynesian efforts.

In respect of the Climate, I say again, the Climates time will never run out, but ours may well, unless we ALL take whatever mitigation measures are possible.

Again, forget everything else about who is correct & who is not, about this ideology or that one, the crucial question is what will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

So, Soren, what are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing? What cost/s would you deem necessary, to save not only your own future, but that of your children, their children and of future generations?

We fought wars for much less, what price would be too great too bear, for the survival of the human species?

The clock is ticking and time is shorter, than many may think!

No response hey, did you feel challenged, sweetie?

The relative costs to humanity are... well... relative. Do you feel comforted?

DO you have any other vague questions? I have a vague answer for them all:
"Well, perhaps. It depends, doesn't it?"

Remember - I do not believe we can change the climate.

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perceptions_now

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #9 - May 26^th, 2011 at 12:04am

Soren wrote on May 25^th, 2011 at 9:04pm:

perceptions_now wrote on May 23^rd, 2011 at 9:55pm:

perceptions_now wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 6:23pm:

Soren wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:03pm:

We will think of something else long before we run out oil or climate.

We can be sure of one thing - we will not run out of creativity.

That's your answer, in place of "good Public policy", we will go will a "wing & a prayer" and hope that the "innovation cavalry" come riding over the hill, just in the nick of time, AGAIN?

You will note that I said, "in the nick of time" and that's because if we were going to "think of something else long before we run out", then we would have already done it!

As I have repeatedly said, in respect of Energy, Oil Production already effectively Peaked back in 2005 and short of another major Recession that will become glaringly obvious to almost all, over the next couple of years.

That said, I expect we will shortly see "the Recession we had to have", as Paul Keating would have put it!

As I have also said many times, we don't have to run out of Oil, for it to be a major problem.

In fact, Oil becomes a major problem when -
The flow of new capacity, is insufficient to offset the loss of capacity to depletion and therefore the usual increase in Demand is not able to be met?

And, the start of the effects of that moment, can be seen in what has happened after 2005, when the Peak Oil moment did arrive!

Since then, it has been reflected in higher Energy & Food prices, it was reflected in the current GFC starting & it is still being reflected, as the Global Economy again sinks into recession, as many governments & central banks are now broke and can not continue their Keynesian efforts.

In respect of the Climate, I say again, the Climates time will never run out, but ours may well, unless we ALL take whatever mitigation measures are possible.

Again, forget everything else about who is correct & who is not, about this ideology or that one, the crucial question is what will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

So, Soren, what are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing? What cost/s would you deem necessary, to save not only your own future, but that of your children, their children and of future generations?

We fought wars for much less, what price would be too great too bear, for the survival of the human species?

The clock is ticking and time is shorter, than many may think!

No response hey, did you feel challenged, sweetie?

The relative costs to humanity are... well... relative. Do you feel comforted?

DO you have any other vague questions? I have a vague answer for them all:
"Well, perhaps. It depends, doesn't it?"

Remember - I do not believe we can change the climate.

Well sweetie, at least I put forward facts and a cogent argument, in support of what I say.

All you seem capable of is one liners, a broad statement that you don't believe in Climate Change, but nothing in the way of substantiation or any cogent facts to back your assertions!

In short, you are prepared to gamble the future of humanity, on a wing & a prayer!

That's not smart, that's dumb!

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Flying Binghi Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 252 Australia Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #10 - May 26^th, 2011 at 12:38am . Quote: Climate Change, can also be compared (in some ways) to another rare/unique event called Peak Oil. The climate always changes, always has, always will. perceptions-now, how can you compare our ever changing climate with peak oil ? it dont make sense.. .
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perceptions_now

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #11 - May 26^th, 2011 at 12:30pm

Flying Binghi wrote on May 26^th, 2011 at 12:38am:

.

Quote:

Climate Change, can also be compared (in some ways) to another rare/unique event called Peak Oil.

The climate always changes, always has, always will.

perceptions-now, how can you compare our ever changing climate with peak oil ? it dont make sense.. Huh

.

Well, if you had kept reading, you may have got more of an idea?

perceptions_now wrote on May 19^th, 2011 at 8:24pm:

perceptions_now wrote on May 17^th, 2011 at 1:45pm:

Climate Change, can also be compared (in some ways) to another rare/unique event called Peak Oil.

In 1956, Peak Oil was a rare phenomenon, only put up as a "theory" by one person, M. King. Hubbert.

Hubbert's Peak Oil theory was derided by most and confirmation of the fist part of that theory was still 14 years in the future, when the USA finally hit the Peak of the Oil Production in 1970 and US Oil Production is still in decline today, some 40 years later.

Around 2004-2006, depending on what statistic you believe, we also effectively hit Peak Oil, Globally, as predicted in Hubbert's Theory!

However, Hubbert's theory became much more than theory, well before Global Oil finally Peaked and if governments (local & Global) had moved early enough (say 20 years ago), then we would not be faced with a looming catastrophe, of such a magnitude.

The same goes for Climate Change, it has grown from small beginnings, to a point where the majority of Climate scientists are in broad agreement that our climate is heading for undesirable changes and that certain human related issues are contributing to that change.

So, again we have a choice, we can bury our heads in the sand and say they (the scientists) are wrong. We can take our chances and do nothing, like we did with Peak Oil and if we are right this time, then we will save a few $'s, lets say 5-10% of GDP.

However, if we do bury our heads, do nothing and it turns out that the majority of scientists were correct after all, then we have a far worse situation, than we currently have with Peak Oil.

If the scientists are correct and we do nothing in the way of mitigation, then the day will finally arrive, like Peak Oil, when it becomes obvious the Hubbert & the Climate scientists were correct and because the Climate Change timelines are so long, we will have consigned humanity to an unimaginably difficult future of great hardship.

Forget everything else about who is correct & who is not, about this ideology or that one,
the crucial question is what will be the cost to us and our children, in the longer term, if we take the Peak Oil line, we are wrong and do not take whatever actions are possible to mitigate the worst effects of the GHG/Climate Change problem?

====================
So, what are the relative costs to humanity, of doing something or doing nothing?

The thing is that the Politicians, TPTB and many of the Public didn't believe Peak Oil or didn't want to believe.

However, if those in a position to get the full range of information had viewed the Peak Oil situation properly, then the Global Economy should have started a transition away from Oil & other Fossil Fuels, a good 20-30 years ago and therefore given us sufficient chance of changing the Global Economy in time, without forcing us to go thru, what is now happening and will happen in future.

The same applies to Climate Change, which is now at a similar point to where Peak Oil was shortly after Hubbert make his announcements, back in the 1950's.

The difference being, instead of there being some 50 years between Hubberts announcements and the actual date of Global Peak Oil, the time span between the earlier Climate change announcements and its final confirmation may be on a longer timespan, perhaps 50-100 years.

However, the end results, of both, will show that if mitigation of risks had started early enough or at least earlier, then the worst aspects of both may have been avaodable.

Perhaps, we will not be able to "completely control" the climate changes, but we certainly have changed the shape of the planets total Environment, so we may well be able to give it a big shake/shape going in the other direction on Climate???

In any event & whatever the final outcome, its time that we took the bull by the horns (Peak Oil & Climate Change) and at least made the effort.

As I said earlier, we have fought wars, when there was much less at stake, than the survival of the human species!

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Soren

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #12 - May 26^th, 2011 at 12:43pm

perceptions_now wrote on May 26^th, 2011 at 12:04am:

Well sweetie, at least I put forward facts and a cogent argument, in support of what I say.

[/quote]

I am sorry, I missed the facts and the cogent argument you say you have posted. All I could see was a silly comparison with peak oil - which we both had a giggle at.

So please remind me where the facts and cogent argument can be found and I will respond to them.

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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #13 - May 26^th, 2011 at 12:47pm If Peak Oil is our guide to action, then do nothing (that is organised or imposed by government) is just the ticket.
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perceptions_now

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #14 - May 26^th, 2011 at 1:33pm

Soren wrote on May 26^th, 2011 at 12:43pm:

perceptions_now wrote on May 26^th, 2011 at 12:04am:

Well sweetie, at least I put forward facts and a cogent argument, in support of what I say.

I am sorry, I missed the facts and the cogent argument you say you have posted. All I could see was a silly comparison with peak oil - which we both had a giggle at.

So please remind me where the facts and cogent argument can be found and I will respond to them.

[/quote]

Yes, I'm sure you miss the facts, all of those ones, YOU DON'T WANT TO SEE!

In terms of you responding to any cogent argument or set of facts, let's just face one fact, your not going to, because you have no cogent argument or set of facts, to reply with!

In fact, if you had one, you would already have done so.

You remind me of people like Maqqa & a few others, all full of yourself, but there is no substance there!

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