Australian Politics Forum - The Soren Challenge

barnaby joe Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1992 euchareena	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #300 - Nov 6^th, 2011 at 9:28pm i don't even know what that is is it anything like the church of scientology?
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Soren

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #301 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:06am

For people of my generation, it seemed, for a while, as though we could rediscover meaning through culture. The artistic, musical, literary, and philosophical traditions of our civilization bore so many traces of a world-transforming significance that it would be enough—we thought—to pass those things on. Each new generation could then inherit by means of them the spiritual resources that it needed. But we reckoned without two all-important facts: first, the second law of thermodynamics, which tells us that without an injection of energy, all order decays; and second, the rise of what I call the “culture of repudiation,” as those appointed to inject that energy have become increasingly fatigued with the task and have eventually jettisoned the cultural baggage under whose weight they staggered.

This culture of repudiation has transmitted itself, through the media and the schools, across the spiritual terrain of Western civilization, leaving behind it a sense of emptiness and defeat, a sense that nothing is left to believe in or endorse, save only the freedom to believe. And a belief in the freedom to believe is neither a belief nor a freedom. It encourages hesitation in the place of conviction and timidity in the place of choice.

Roger Scruton

Read it all at http://www.city-journal.org/2009/19_1_the-west.html

It is also on iTunes as a podcast.

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Equitist Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9632 NSW	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #302 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:12am Don't be silly, Soren - what more does humanity need, other than to shuffle Mickey Mouse Monopoly Money in the worship of the 'Growth Fairy'!?
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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #303 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:20am Equitist wrote on Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:12am: Don't be silly, Soren - what more does humanity need, other than to shuffle Mickey Mouse Monopoly Money in the worship of the 'Growth Fairy'!? The monomania forum is a few door down. Move along, mother.
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muso

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #304 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 10:44am

Soren wrote on Nov 6^th, 2011 at 2:41pm:

A fair summary.

But you can only apply it to things like the climate: things you cannot perform experiments on because there is only one of them.

In fact here is a list (not by any means comprehensive) of some of those experiments that Soren can't perform:

http://climateprediction.net/content/experiments

Quote:

Thermohaline experiment

A study of the possible effects of a prescribed slowdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Read more here.

Sulphur cycle experiment

With this experiment we aim identify the effects of sulphate aerosol on the global climate system and the sensitivity of the model to perturbing sulphur cycle parameters. More information is available here.

Mid-holocene experiment

More information is here.

Geoengineering experiment

An estimate of the possible effects of climate change mitigation strategies, described in more detail here.

Millennium experiment

An experiment to refine the accuracy of climate models of the last millennium, including the “Medieval warm period” and the “little ice age.” Read more about it here.

Validation and attribution experiment

More information is here.

Seasonal Attribution Experiment

An investigation of the possible impact of human activity on extreme weather risk. More information here.

RAPID-RAPIT Experiment

The aim of this experiment is to assess the risk of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapse in the coming century. More information here

- and here are some experiments being conducted on the consequences of increased CO2, higher temperatures etc:

http://www.esf.org/index.php?id=4958

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muso

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #305 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 10:58am

Apart from that, only blind Freddy would say that there is no connection between carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric content. The case is pretty well closed on that one.

This data confirms what I was saying in another post. How much have we emitted since industrialisation? About 1300 Gigatonnes.

How much has the atmospheric inventory changed by? About 800 Gigatonnes. (of course, that's only up to the year 2000)

So you could say that the contribution of industrial activity to atmospheric CO2 inventory in that time has been around 160% of the total rise.

How can that be? - because the remaining 500 Gigatonnes has been absorbed by carbon sinks, such as the ocean (the biggest of these).

That's some indisputable data. You might think about disputing the carbon emissions, but you'd be arguing with bean counters. It doesn't require a degree in climatology to calculate how much oil and gas has been burnt or how much cement has been produced, because money changes hand for those activities, and people tend to be surprisingly accurate when it comes to financial matters like that.

The atmospheric inventory is a relatively simple calculation. It's something that I could do on the back of a matchbox.

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« Last Edit: Nov 7^th, 2011 at 11:49am by muso »

CO2-Emissions-vs-Levels.gif (12 KB | 27 )

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Soren

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #306 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 1:56pm

muso wrote on Nov 7^th, 2011 at 10:44am:

- and here are some experiments being conducted on the consequences of increased CO2, higher temperatures etc:

http://www.esf.org/index.php?id=4958

These guys are saying exactly what I have been saying:
"a coherent view and understanding does not exist." Feel free to tke this also as the answer to your earlier question about how do I know we don't know.

The 'experiments' you list are thought experiments, ie databases and models. A computer model of a thing for which "a coherent view and understanding does not exist" is not an experiment but a calculation.

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muso

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #307 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 5:23pm

That comment relates to the consequences of Global warming, ocean acidification etc.

We need to carry out experiments to establish things such as:

Which varieties grow best under changing climatic conditions?
What will be the response of terrestrial ecosystems? etc.

(You do know what an ecosystem is I take it?)

You're twisting the words to suit your agenda. These are points we need to understand better.

Soren wrote on Nov 7^th, 2011 at 1:56pm:

The 'experiments' you list are thought experiments, ie databases and models. A computer model of a thing for which "a coherent view and understanding does not exist" is not an experiment but a calculation.

Weather balloons and satellites are not thought experiments.

There are plenty of different experiments that we can carry out. We don't have to change the variables, we can let external events such as solar eclipses, volcanoes etc change the experimental conditions for us and find out how close our predictions are based on physical properties and parameters.

- And while we're at it, we can design experiments to measure changing atmospheric conditions and compare against models. There is nothing wrong with using models. Machinery designers use them all the time. The more they are tested, the more robust they become.

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« Last Edit: Nov 7^th, 2011 at 5:38pm by muso »

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Soren

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #308 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:32pm

Muso, don't experiment with ways of avoiding the point.

"a coherent view and understanding does not exist."

That's from the website you cited, presumably because you regard it as authoritative. ANd that's exactly has been my point all these months and years. Imp grasped in one go - yet it eludes you despite multiple quals in science.

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muso

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #309 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:34pm

Soren wrote on Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:32pm:

Muso, don't experiment with ways of avoiding the point.

"a coherent view and understanding does not exist."

That's from the website you cited, presumably because you regard it as authoritative. ANd that's exactly has been my point all these months and years. Imp grasped in one go - yet it eludes you despite multiple quals in science.

1. You are taking that phrase completely out of context.
2. You are completely ignoring everything else I posted about experimentation.

It's the Soren gambit. I post a link to a site that is experimenting with the effects of varying climate on different plants and ecosystems (it's not even related to climate science) and you take something totally out of context and use it as your main argument to draw attention away from the obvious fact that you don't know what on earth you're talking about.

If you want to learn about climate experimentation, just use Google (with some discrimination for a change). You can put your telescope to your blind eye like some latter day Horatio Nelson all you like and bravely state "I see no signal" but it's not going to change the fact that there is an enormous number of climate related experiments going on.

Just because you choose not to see it doesn't change the fact.

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« Last Edit: Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:51pm by muso »

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Soren

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #310 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:48pm

Really?? How so?

Increased emission of green house gasses as a consequence of human activities has been projected to lead to climatic changes, including increased temperature and changes in precipitation amounts and patterns. These three main climatic driven changes (CO2, temperature and precipitation) will alone and in combination have large effects on terrestrial ecosystem functioning and will therefore affect the goods and services provided by these ecosystems (biodiversity, forest, range, agricultural productivity, ground water provision, ground water quality, fire protection, recreation etc.). Considerable progress has been made to better understand the response of terrestrial ecosystems to these changes, using both field manipulation experiments and modelling. However, our present knowledge of these effects and consequences is generally derived from individual projects with different foci, and a coherent view and understanding does not exist. Therefore, there is a significant need to review the “state of the art” and to synthesise our knowledge across drivers, ecosystems and ecosystem processes. CLIMMANI provides a framework for networking past and current terrestrial ecosystem research by bringing together key researchers within the field, building coherent interdisciplinary databases, and by coordinating research activities globally. This is necessary in order to formulate future research needs and to guide political and management activities to combat or minimize negative effects on natural ecosystems and promote sustainable development.

http://www.esf.org/index.php?id=4958

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muso

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #311 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:54pm

Soren wrote on Nov 7^th, 2011 at 9:48pm:

Really?? How so?

Increased emission of green house gasses as a consequence of human activities has been projected to lead to climatic changes, including increased temperature and changes in precipitation amounts and patterns. These three main climatic driven changes (CO2, temperature and precipitation) will alone and in combination have large effects on terrestrial ecosystem functioning and will therefore affect the goods and services provided by these ecosystems (biodiversity, forest, range, agricultural productivity, ground water provision, ground water quality, fire protection, recreation etc.). Considerable progress has been made to better understand the response of terrestrial ecosystems to these changes, using both field manipulation experiments and modelling. However, our present knowledge of these effects and consequences is generally derived from individual projects with different foci, and a coherent view and understanding does not exist. Therefore, there is a significant need to review the “state of the art” and to synthesise our knowledge across drivers, ecosystems and ecosystem processes. CLIMMANI provides a framework for networking past and current terrestrial ecosystem research by bringing together key researchers within the field, building coherent interdisciplinary databases, and by coordinating research activities globally. This is necessary in order to formulate future research needs and to guide political and management activities to combat or minimize negative effects on natural ecosystems and promote sustainable development.

OK, so all this time you were arguing about the response of terrestrial ecosystems then, were you? Well blow me down!

In that case, I concede that we don't know entirely how the Siberian hamster population will be affected by the proliferation of fleas in a warmer climate. Grin

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Soren Gold Member Offline Posts: 25654 Gender:	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #312 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 10:02pm Well, if they don't even know THAT (a tiny and well defined subject with clear boundaries and variables, open to reproducible experimentation, rather than requiring dirty big computer models manipulating assumptions and data), how can they presume to know the entire climate and all it's workings?
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barnaby joe Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1992 euchareena	Re: The Soren Challenge Reply #313 - Nov 7^th, 2011 at 10:51pm they cant make a PICKLE JAR thats easy to open either but they claim they know how to understand the climate??
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muso

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Re: The Soren Challenge
Reply #314 - Nov 8^th, 2011 at 6:47am

Soren wrote on Nov 7^th, 2011 at 10:02pm:

Well, if they don't even know THAT (a tiny and well defined subject with clear boundaries and variables, open to reproducible experimentation, rather than requiring dirty big computer models manipulating assumptions and data), how can they presume to know the entire climate and all it's workings?

Do you think that they might just possibly have difficulty getting a grant to study some of the more obscure subjects?

The point is that first you have to actually conduct that reproducible experimentation. It's not like philosophy - you can't just make it up as you go along and claim that as knowledge.

Of course we don't know entirely how all ecosystems will react, with the exception of some commercially important ecosystems which have been the subject of some study.

Soren, I get the distinct impression that you're out of your depth.

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« Last Edit: Nov 8^th, 2011 at 6:52am by muso »

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