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What's the Real truth? (Read 29121 times)

perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #180 - Jul 16^th, 2011 at 8:07pm

Has the Recession Started?

While some Congressman may actually believe that reducing the budget deficit when jobs are scarce and unemployment is high will improve the economy,

every normal person understands this is going to be a short-term hit to the economy.

So the conclusion is that the United States economy is not in recession today but consumers are fearful that it soon will be and indicators of future economic activity are showing a marked economic slowdown in the future.

There is nothing to keep to the U.S. out of recession - in fact, current government actions guarantee a near recession. The expiration of the stimulus program alone will remove 1.5% from GDP growth in 2012 plus there will be further reductions from federal, state and local governments spending reductions.

It's probably going to be much worse. The issue missing from all the discussions I've seen is the multiplier factor. If the Keynesian stimulus multiplier exists, it is highest during times of debt deflation, excess capacity and high unemployment and it works both ways as we have seen in the Iceland versus Greece and Ireland experience. We may not see just a 1.5% decrease from the end of stimulus but more likely a 2.75% reduction which is almost certain to plunge us into a severe recession.

Most politicians appear unaware of the economics of balance sheet recessions such as the long established "paradox of thrift" visible in Ireland's and Greece's economies, much less the newer "paradox of toil" where increased potential output reduces actual output, and the “paradox of flexibility” where a greater willingness of workers to accept wage cuts actually increases unemployment. The names are new but the effects were known during the Great Depression. So I'll will close with a newsreel that explained this in 1934 for those of you who don't have the math and/or the time needed to check the actual model.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/279738-has-the-recession-started
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The truth is -

1) In fact, the real & underlying factors that are driving events, will ensure the this slowdown will be a Long Term Player, not a short term hit.

2) The reality is that it has only been the enormous stimulus & outright bailouts that have kept the US out of remaining in a technical Recession.

If the cost of those stimulus/bailouts were deducted from the US GDP, which it should be, then the US would never exited the Recession.

What that means, is that the US kicked the can a little further down the road again, but this time the small amount of time respite, has been extremely costly, in terms of Debt and the possibility of kicking the can further down the timeline road, has been removed.

NOW, after some 50-60 years of everyone (including Politicians, TPTB & the Public) avoiding responsibility, the buck stops here!

The time time for the account to be paid, can no longer be put off and the ramifications will be very long & painfull, in the US & Globally!

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perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: What's the Real truth? Reply #181 - Jul 19^th, 2011 at 8:36am Gold hits US$1,600
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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #182 - Jul 19^th, 2011 at 8:52am

Phone hacking whistleblower found dead

One of the first voices to blow the whistle on phone hacking - former News of the World journalist Sean Hoare - has been found dead at his home in Watford, about 40km northwest of London.

Police said the death was being treated as unexplained but was not considered suspicious.

Hoare was quoted by The New York Times saying that phone hacking - listening to the voice mail of celebrities, politicians, other journalists or even murder victims - was widely used and even encouraged at the News of the World under then-editor Andy Coulson.

"Everyone was doing it," Hoare told the US paper. "Everybody got a bit carried away with this power that they had. No one came close to catching us."

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's PM program, he said phone hacking was "endemic" in the newspaper industry.

Hoare's claims were passed to Scotland Yard but they said he declined to give evidence.

The man said he knew the former journalist quite well because Hoare would talk to him about his problems.

He said Hoare was "paranoid" about people seeing him, and he was fearful of the police and the government.

The neighbour said: "He said he was in trouble and he was worried about people coming to get him."

Describing Hoare as a "fantasist", the neighbour said: "A lot of the time we didn’t know what to believe. He did say something about phone hacking. He did mention he was paranoid and that there was a conspiracy."

"The death is currently being treated as unexplained, but not thought to be suspicious. Police investigations into this incident are ongoing."

Link -
http://www.smh.com.au/world/phone-hacking-whistleblower-found-dead-20110719-1hm2...
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Not being a great believer in co-incidences, I would look for this to be FULLY EXPLAINED, before dismissing other possible conclusions, as being the real truth.

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progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: What's the Real truth? Reply #183 - Jul 19^th, 2011 at 9:33am Greenhouse gas theory of global warming is refuted in momentous Mexican lab experiment http://climaterealists.com/?id=8073 The experiment http://www.biocab.org/Wood_Experiment_Repeated.html
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progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: What's the Real truth? Reply #184 - Jul 19^th, 2011 at 9:44am New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible http://www.dailytech.com/Researcher%20Basic%20Greenhouse%20Equations%20Totally%2...
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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #185 - Jul 19^th, 2011 at 8:53pm

The Bill Uncle Sam Can’t Pay

Want to hear something really scary? Even if the government could come up with $4 trillion in savings for just one year… it wouldn’t be enough to cover all the obligations Uncle Sam is taking on in one year.

Here we pause to introduce a term you may or may not be familiar with: generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP.

GAAP is what companies use to keep their books. If they don’t, their executives can go to prison.

GAAP is not how the government keeps its books.

If it did, it would have to account for future Social Security and Medicare obligations.

Now… there’s set of books maintained by the U.S. Treasury that does the accounting honestly. You don’t hear much about them. A new one comes out every year a few days before Christmas, when no one’s paying attention.

According to these books, if you take into account all the new Social Security and Medicare obligations that Uncle Sam is incurring this year alone… the deficit would not be $1.65 trillion, but rather…brace yourself…

$5 trillion.

Link -
http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/bill-uncle-sam-cant-pay/
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And these are part of why the IMF said that the USA had to increase Taxes by 35% AND reduce Expenditure by 35% and leave them there!

However, Pensions & increased Health Care costs, arising from an ageing population have been known about for decades, so why has it been left to now, to "all of a sudden discover there is a problem"???

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #186 - Jul 20^th, 2011 at 12:07am

Climate sceptic Lord Monckton told he's not member of House of Lords

The House of Lords has taken the unprecedented step of publishing a "cease and desist" letter on its website demanding that Lord Christopher Monckton, a prominent climate sceptic and the UK Independence party's head of research, should stop claiming to be a member of the upper house.

The letter, sent by David Beamish, clerk of the parliaments, to Monckton last Friday and now published on the Lords' website, states: "You are not and have never been a member of the House of Lords. Your assertion that you are a member, but without the right to sit or vote, is a contradiction in terms. No one denies that you are, by virtue of your letters patent, a peer. That is an entirely separate issue to membership of the House.

The letter from Beamish to Monckton continues: "I must therefore again ask that you desist from claiming to be a member of the House of Lords, either directly or by implication, and also that you desist from claiming to be a member 'without the right to sit or vote'. I am publishing this letter on the parliamentary website so that anybody who wishes to check whether you are a member of the House of Lords can view this official confirmation that you are not."

Link -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/18/climate-monckton-member-house-...
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Monckton's claims to be a member of the House of Lords, are similar to his claims on Climate Change, they stretch the truth, much the same as Maqqa.

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progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: What's the Real truth? Reply #187 - Jul 20^th, 2011 at 10:03am THE HOCKEY SCHTICK http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/06/rescue-from-climate-saviors.html Rescue from the Climate Saviors Is the “Global Climate” really in Danger? http://www.ke-research.de/downloads/climateSaviors-1-1.pdf
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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #188 - Jul 22^nd, 2011 at 7:21pm

Clowns to the Left, Jokers to the Right

http://ilene.typepad.com/.a/6a010536583aff970b01538ff9556a970b-450wi

As the clock ticks down to the impending August 2 deadline for lifting the debt ceiling, negotiations between the White House and Capitol Hill are growing increasingly tense. Lawmakers and the president attempt to arrive at a compromise that will inevitably satisfy no one.

“But the Democrats cannot agree to the Republicans' absolutist demands, in part because the arithmetic of deficit reduction does not work without tax increases and cuts in defense spending, in part because they passionately believe that with taxes the lowest for 50 years, the US's rich should share in the pain and in part because in any human exchange there is an element of horse-trading.”

Financial economist and historian Dr. Michael Hudson was recently interviewed by Bonnie Faulkner on Guns N Butter. When Ms. Faulkner asked his opinion of where the U.S. economy is headed, Mr. Hudson replied,

“The economy’s going under because Wall Street and investors realize that it’s a done deal. That Mr. Obama is going to succeed in pushing the economy much further into a depression. We need the depression in order to cut living standards and labor by 30 percent. We need a depression in order just to lower the wages of America and to have an excuse – of course, a depression is going to make the budget deficit even larger and the solution to the depression has already been written up, just like the invasion of Iraq was all written up before 9/11, the solution is going to be that the government is going to sell off its land, whatever is in the public domain.

“The American government is going to look just like Greece and just like Ireland. They’re going to be told, ‘The states can’t pay, there’s no federal revenue to share with Minnesota or Wisconsin or the city of Chicago. They’re going to have to sell off their roads, sell off their streets, sell off their infrastructure, sell off their public utilities, sell off their business. The government will sell whatever it has, the Postal Service, to essentially buyers who will now borrow the money from the banks making a huge new market for banks and investment bankers, in privatizing and cutting up what used to be the public domain and turning it over to the wealthiest 10 percent of the economy. So people realize yes, the class war’s back in business. We’re going into a depression. We’ll buy back all these stocks after they go but meanwhile, the game’s over. Let’s grab what we can and just bail out. And that’s what’s happening now.”

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/280224-clowns-to-the-left-jokers-to-the-right-we...
=============================================
Great cartoon!

As I have said previously, I am of the opinion that there will be a last minute deal to avert the immediate Debt ceiling issue, but that will not, in fact can not avert the final outcomes, which should become apparent to almost all, by the end of 2012!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #189 - Jul 22^nd, 2011 at 9:03pm

Is Peak Coal Real?
Report Says Yes, and It'll Happen This Year

It was once thought there remained 250 years of coal reserves. We were told there was no need to worry about supply during our lifetimes, and that coal prices would remain cheap...

That's no longer the case. Like oil, the easy-to-reach coal is dwindling by the day. And like oil, as global supplies fall, demand will spike.

Global demand is exploding. In China and India, electricity demand is up 14% and 8%, respectively; European coal generation jumped some 13% over the last year following Japan's nuclear nightmare, all of which helped drive Peabody's strong Q2 earnings growth and guidance.

While global supplies continue to fall, demand is expected to spike even more...

China was using 3.25 billion tons of coal last year, up 5.9% year over year, and that figure is likely to increase by 4.24% a year from 2011 to 2015. Coal consumption in India is expected to run another 20% higher over the same period.

Plus demand from emerging markets — especially for metallurgical coal needed for steel — is exploding. Global steel demand is expected to run another 6.5% to 7% this year on strong growth in developing countries.

And yet, in these early stages of coal's supercycle, not everyone is enthused about coal mining stocks...

As Tadeusz Patek and Greg Croft explain in Energy, the seven billion tons of coal "the world is now mining and burning each year is about the best it can do." The pair predicts coal will peak not because supplies are running out, but "because remaining deposits are increasingly difficult to find."

Link -
http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/is-peak-coal-real/1661

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #190 - Jul 23^rd, 2011 at 3:30pm

A Default By Any Other Name

We won’t belabor the point. Greece can’t solve a problem of too much debt by taking on even more. We will note, however, that by some measures, the United States is even more deeply in hock than Greece.

Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 143%. America’s is officially 97%. But the $14.3 trillion national debt, stacked up against a $14.7 trillion economy, doesn’t tell the whole story.

$14.3 trillion: “Official” national debt
$5 trillion: Amount Uncle Sam is on the hook for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
$62 trillion: Total liabilities and unfunded obligations for Social Security and Medicare

That’s more than $81 trillion… or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 553%.

And that doesn’t count the black box of bailouts.

We know how much the Federal Reserve doled out in emergency loans: $16.1 trillion between Dec. 1, 2007, and July 21, 2010.

We know that because yesterday the Government Accountability Office completed its first-ever audit of the Fed, made possible largely through the persistence of Rep. Ron Paul making that audit, however incomplete, the law.

What we don’t know is how much of that has been paid back. “We have literally injected about $5.3 trillion,” said Dr. Paul last week during his questioning of Fed chief Ben Bernanke, “and I don’t think we got very much for it. The national debt went up $5.1 trillion.”

Bernanke did not challenge those figures.

“To get our overall fiscal gap under control,” writes Boston University professor Laurence Kotlikoff in Bloomberg, “the U.S. must cut spending or raise tax revenue by $20 trillion over the next decade, far more than either the president wants or the House Republicans seek.”

Yep: The latest number we see bruited in Washington this morning is $3 trillion. Whatever the final number — and there will be a last-minute deal; there always is — it will be substantially less than $20 trillion over 10 years. The can will be kicked… as it keeps getting kicked in Greece.

In Greece, professor Savas Robolis at Panteion University in Athens reckons that by 2015, the average Greek employee and pensioner’s standard of living will have fallen 40% compared with 2008.

Even now, Americans are turning to their credit cards to pay for groceries and gas. According to First Data Corp., the volume of gasoline purchases put on credit cards jumped 39% over the last 12 months.

Link -
http://5minforecast.agorafinancial.com/default-by-any-other-name/
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In fact, the US Debt that currently stands "officially" at 97% is clearly much, much greater than that!

Even if the "unfunded" Social Security and Medicare Liabilities are not included, which they should be, there is still the $5 Trillion in Fannie & Freddy Liabilities (which is still increasing), plus $16 Trillion in "magic mushroom money" generated out of "thin air" by the FED Reserve, instead of via "official" government channels, plus who knows what in "black opps funding".

But, it is the estimated $50-$70 Trillion in Social Security & Health Care costs, which is totally unfunded that is a massive cause for concern, as the first of the Baby Boomer generation became eligible for pensions from January 1st, 2011 and over the next decade these payments will balloon and cause US Deficits & Debt into the stratosphere!

And, all of that whilst grappling with a Peaking Energy Supply, which will cause huge increases in Energy & related costs, plus the ripple effects of Climate Change.

Good luck & watch the Debt!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #191 - Jul 25^th, 2011 at 4:01pm

Threat to Japan’s Food Chain Multiplies as Radiation Spreads

Radiation threats to Japan’s food chain are multiplying as cesium emissions from the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant spread more widely, moving from hay to cattle to beef.

Hay contaminated with as much as 690,000 becquerels a kilogram, compared with a government safety standard of 300 becquerels, has been fed to cattle. Beef with unsafe levels of the radioactive element was detected in four prefectures, the health ministry said July 23.

Agriculture Minister Michihiko Kano has said officials were unaware of the risk that rice farmers might ship tainted hay to cattle growers. That highlights the government’s inability to think ahead and to act, said Mariko Sano, secretary general for Shufuren, a housewives organization in Tokyo.

“The government is so slow to move,” Sano said. “They’ve done little to ensure food safety.”

Prolonged exposure to radiation in the air, ground and food can cause leukemia and other cancers, according to the London- based World Nuclear Association.

A growing concern is that the release of radiation into waters near the Fukushima plant may multiply through the seafood chain.

Levels of cesium-134 in seawater near the Fukushima plant’s No. 3 reactor rose to levels 30 times the allowed safety standards last week, according to tests performed by Tokyo Electric Power Co, national broadcaster NHK reported.
No Testing System

Japan has no centralized system to check for radiation contamination of food. Prefectural authorities in cooperation with local farmers conduct voluntary tests. Products including spinach, mushrooms, bamboo shoots, tea, milk, plums and fish have been found contaminated with cesium and iodine as far as 360 kilometers from Dai-Ichi.

Tokyo Electric said June 14 it found cesium in milk tested near another nuclear reactor site about 210 kilometers from the Fukushima plant.

The government is considering if it’s feasible to test all cattle to prevent shipments of tainted meat to market, according to Yasuo Sasaki, senior press counselor for the agriculture ministry.

Four months after the earthquake and tsunami damage to the Fukushima plant, local governments short of equipment, staff and budget are struggling to test all farm products.

More than 2,600 cattle have been contaminated, Kyodo News reported July 23, after the Miyagi prefectural government said 1,183 cattle at 58 farms were fed the tainted hay before being shipped to meat markets.

Coming after the government banned cattle shipments from Fukushima on July 19, the latest discoveries signal efforts so far haven’t been sufficient to protect Japan’s food chain.

Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-24/threat-to-japanese-food-chain-multiplie...
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The TRUTH is, this is an INDUSTRY that CAN NOT be TRUSTED and they are BACKED by POLITICIANS, who LIE.

AND, believe it or not, whilst many governments are currently backing away from Nuclear power, in THE FUTURE, WE MAY NEED TO GO BACK TO NUCLEAR, as part of the transition AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS.

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #192 - Jul 25^th, 2011 at 4:19pm

Soros Is 75% in Cash

Though he is not one of my favorite people in the industry it isn’t really possible to doubt the investing acumen of George Soros. Over the years many have made a good bit of money in markets by simply mimicking his strategies. The most recent, however, is hardly worthwhile replicating for most investors.

Apparently, George’s flagship Quantum Fund currently has 75% of its assets in cash. Another sign that the even the most heavyweight financial players are unsure of the situation and that August 2011 is beginning to look more and more like August 2008.

Hoarding cash is usually a signal of uncertainty or extremely bearish beliefs. In today's uncertain environment, however, it can be considered a growth strategy and hedging instrument. Presumably Quantum’s cash is spread out over a basket of currencies ready to hop from one to the next if some sort of market shattering event occurs.

Soros has recently viewed his bearish perspective on Europe and is one of an increasing number of insiders claiming that Greece must be sent packing from the monetary union. As we full well know, cataclysmic events can often act like catalysts for markets. Perhaps the great cash hoard is akin to an army stockpiling weapons in expectation of a great battle. Soros has been known to play dead before and I wouldn’t put this seemingly risk averse move beyond being an aggressive strategy in passive clothing.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/281321-soros-is-75-in-cash?source=email_macro_vi...
=================================
The truth is, the period ahead is fraught with enormous danger and Economically the trend is to the Downside, so good luck & watch the Debt!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #193 - Jul 25^th, 2011 at 6:25pm

US rushes to avert disastrous default

THE White House and top lawmakers scrambled to reach a deal to save the world's richest country from a disastrous default on its debt, amid fears that inaction could affect markets around the globe.

With global financial markets on edge, President Barack Obama met at the White House with Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to map their way forward in the standoff.

Senator Reid said there was no progress with Republicans because of the rival party's "continued insistence on a short-term raise of the debt ceiling".

He said Democrats were working on a measure to raise the $US14.3 trillion ($A13.25 trillion) US debt ceiling, allowing Washington to pay its bills past an August 2 deadline, while cutting $US2.7 trillion ($A2.5 trillion) in spending over 10 years.

The strategy, detailed by a Democratic official on condition of anonymity, would also achieve President Obama's goal of avoiding another politically painful vote on the issue before he faces re-election in November 2012.

According to The New York Times, President Obama and the Democratic leaders decided at their meeting to hold firm against any short-term agreement that did not raise the debt ceiling beyond next year's presidential elections.

Earlier, House Speaker John Boehner privately urged fellow Republicans to unite behind a new plan to impose steep spending cuts as the price for raising the US debt limit and promised to have more details, two sources said.

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/us-rushes-to-avert-disastrous-def...
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The above situation is largely repsonsible for today's 70 point decline on the All Ord's -
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^AORD

Today's action on the local market was a follow up to the DOW's 40 point drop on Friday and a decline on DOW futures of over 100 points, during much of today's local trading.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

The TRUTH is that whether the US defaults now or not, it will not change the overall basic position going forward!

The US is effectively Bankrupt and it must make large reductions in its Expediture & large increases its taxes, particularly on the top 10% of income earners & Business.

However, whilst those actions are now necessary, it should never have got this far, as many of the reasons for arriving in this position have been known for a lengthy period of time, with some inputs being in the pipeline for 50-60 years.

That said, the actions that must now be taken will also precipitate adverse knock on effects, in the overall US Economy & the Global Economy, but to not take ALL of those actions could create a more dire set of circumstances?

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #194 - Jul 25^th, 2011 at 6:51pm

Who would have thought it would come to this? They made some very bad decisions with the first bailouts, leading to all the subsequent ones. When you really think about it, the consequences will be catastrophic whatever way they go, it's probably irrelevant if they lift the debt ceiling or default, the final outcome will be similar......disastrous for millions.

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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