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What's the Real truth? (Read 29100 times)

perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #270 - Aug 23^rd, 2011 at 1:53pm

21 signs that the new reality for many baby boomers will be to work as wage slaves until they drop dead (Cont)

#15 In 1950, each retiree's Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 U.S. workers. In 2010, each retiree's Social Security benefit was paid for by approximately 3.3 U.S. workers. By 2025, it is projected that there will be approximately two U.S. workers for each retiree. How in the world can the system possibly continue to function properly with numbers like that?

#16 According to a shocking U.S. government report, soaring interest costs on the U.S. national debt plus rapidly escalating spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will absorb approximately 92 cents of every single dollar of federal revenue by the year 2019. That is before a single dollar is spent on anything else.

#17 Most states have huge pension liabilities that are woefully underfunded. For example, pension consultant Girard Miller recently told California's Little Hoover Commission that state and local government bodies in the state of California have $325 billion in combined unfunded pension liabilities. When you break that down, it comes to $22,000 for every single working adult in the state of California.

#18 Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago and Joshua D. Rauh of Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management recently calculated the combined pension liability for all 50 U.S. states. What they found was that the 50 states are collectively facing $5.17 trillion in pension obligations, but they only have $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds. That is a difference of 3.2 trillion dollars. So where in the world is all of that extra money going to come from? Most of the states are already completely broke and on the verge of bankruptcy.

#19 According to one recent survey, 36 percent of Americans say that they don't contribute anything at all to retirement savings.

#20 According to another recent survey, 24 percent of all U.S. workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age at least once during the past year.

#21 Even though prices for necessities such as food and gas have been exploding, those receiving Social Security benefits have not received a cost of living increase for two year in a row. Many elderly Americans that are living on fixed incomes are being squeezed like they have never been squeezed before.

Today you will find a disturbingly large number of elderly Americans flipping burgers or welcoming people to Wal-Mart. But most of them are not doing it because they are bored with retirement. Rather, most of them are working as wage slaves because that is what they have to do in order to survive.

Sadly, there are a whole lot of companies out there that do not want to hire people that are past a certain age. If you are older than 50, there are a lot of jobs that you should just basically forget about applying for.

As the U.S. economy continues to crumble, the way we treat the elderly is probably going to get even worse.

Right now there is tons of bad news about the economy, and another major economic downturn would put even more pressure on federal, state and local government budgets.

The truth is that there is simply no way that we can keep all of the financial promises that we have made to elderly Americans even if the most optimistic projections for our economy play out.

If the worst happens, we are going to see a lot more elderly Americans eating out of trash cans and freezing to death in their own homes.

The United States is facing a retirement crisis of unprecedented magnitude. A comfortable, happy retirement is rapidly going to become a luxury that only the wealthy will enjoy.

For most of the rest of us, our golden years are going to mean a whole lot of pain and suffering. That may not be pleasant to hear, but that is the truth.

Link -
http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/195234.html
======================================
The Truth is, that the Baby Boomer explosion Peaked in many countries between 1946-1956 and then started to decline, before 1964 was given as the "official" end of the Boomer era.

So, whilst this article refers to 10,000 Boomer retirements per day, that is the average over the full 19 years, whereas in reality the average in the first 10 years is actually higher than 10,000 per day!

The Truth is, that Pensions & Health Care costs, are set to escalate dramatically over the next 2 decades and along with a decline in demand for many products & services, driven by Boomers who life style has taken a tumble, the outcome is a declining GDP and an increasing Debt to GDP ratio!

Finally, the Truth is that this scenario is not restricted to the USA, it applies to many other countries, including -
Japan
Much of Europe
UK
Korea
Australia
Yes, even China
& many others

In some, the effects will be felt less, whilst in other countries, it will be more pronounced.

So, Good luck & watch the Debt!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #271 - Aug 23^rd, 2011 at 10:04pm

Will The Fed Cavalry Ride To The Rescue Again?

As the Federal Reserve gathers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for its conclave this week, investors around the world are hoping (maybe praying) for Dr. Bernanke and his colleagues to, once again, ride to the rescue of global stock markets.

This past week’s volatility brought back memories of the not so good “good old days” of 2008 as markets struggled with dismal economic reports and the increasing likelihood of a double dip recession.

This week, stock market bulls will have to make a “last stand” from a technical point of view.

The economic view remains dark and threatening as this week’s readings brought no let up to the steady stream of negative data.

More shocking yet was the Philadelphia Federal Reserve report which plunged to -30.7 from +3.2 last month which is the lowest reading in this index since March, 2009, at the bottom of the “last recession.”

This is a most troubling number as readings below -20 in this index have always preceded or been accompanied by recession.

Treasury yields responded to the stock market volatility as bonds rose and yields declined to less than 2%, their lowest since the 1950s, while consumer prices continued their climb. So with rising inflation and falling bond yields, the 10 year Treasury is now producing a negative rate of return. Certainly not a good time for people on fixed income or trying to live off their bond yields.

The jobless picture remained glum with 408,000 new unemployment claims, again rising above the all important 400,000 level, while previous home sales declined to from last month’s levels, again missing a widely expected gain.

All the bad news and volatility caused the outflow from domestic stock funds to continue with the week ending August 10th seeing the biggest outflow since October, 2008.

What It All Means for Stock Market and ETF Investors
What it all means is pretty simple; more volatility, more danger and more opportunity for those who can be on the right side of these dynamic markets.

Markets remain oversold and so a dead cat bounce or bear market rally is a real possibility; however, the major trend remains negative and defensive positioning would seem appropriate.

I think that we have already entered a “double dip” recession and that we’ll see more evidence of that going forward as this global slowdown drifts into outright contraction. With U.S. growth already less than 1% for the first half of the year and economic reports continuing to deteriorate, it seems unlikely that there is any other possible outcome. At Wall Street Sector Selector, we remain defensive and expect the current downtrend to continue over the intermediate term.

The Business and Financial News Week Ahead
The big news this week comes on Friday.
Dr. Bernanke will speak at the Federal Reserve Conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and market participants are hoping for a replay of last year’s conference when he laid the groundwork for “QE2.”

Finally, August Consumer sentiment will be released and either add to or minimize the gloom. These three items will be huge movers of the market, and coming on the same day, should provide a lot of fireworks going into an otherwise quiet August weekend.

So will the cavalry once more ride to the rescue?

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/288820-will-the-fed-cavalry-ride-to-the-rescue-a...
=============================================
It seems the market may be looking at yet another bout of buy on the rumour & sell on the fact, as the DOW Futures have been upbeat for most of today?

The Truth is, whatever happens or doesn't happen, in the afterglow of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting, the FED has no real weapons that can kill off the major Economic factors that are suffocating Global Economic Growth!

In effect, the FED, other Central Banks & Governments, are now impotent!

There is nothing left in their bag of tricks, which can put the Global Economy back on the road of good Economic Health, over the next 10-20 years, all they can hope for, is to influence outcomes, to prevent unmitigated disasters?

The Truth is, the Exponential Economic Growth Fairy is Dead and the remains will soon be buried!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #272 - Aug 26^th, 2011 at 5:47pm

Economists Don't See The Recession That Has Already Started

A just released survey of 43 mainstream economists polled this month by the AP pegs the chances of the U.S. falling into recession in the next year at only 26% (one in four). As a group, the economists predict the economy will expand by over 2% in the second half of the year. Other news that appeared with the survey results included an article about how food stamp use in the U.S. is skyrocketing - a highly unlikely occurrence during an economic recovery.

When deciding how much credence should be given to the current recession view of the economics profession, investors should consider how accurately they predicted the Great Recession - the worst one since the 1930s. The recession began in December 2007. That same month a survey of 54 mainstream economist was published by Business Week under the title, "A Slower But Steady Economy" (AP could have used the same title for its current survey). How many of these highly-paid top economists realized that the U.S. was in recession? None, zero, nada, zilch. How many thought that the U.S. was about to experience the worst recession in almost 80 years? None, zero, nada, zilch.

Unless you have reason to believe that establishment economists have been regularly taking handfuls of smart pills in the last three years, it's unlikely that their views are any more accurate today.

Instead of listening to the miss-opinion of mainstream economists constantly being shoveled out by the mainstream media, investors would be wise to look at the hard evidence of what is actually taking place in the economy. Approximately 46 million Americans (15% of the population) are on food stamps. The number has increased by 74% since 2007. One wonders how big the increase would have been without the economic "recovery" that has supposedly taken place. Many of the people who receive food stamps are employed part-time and sometimes full-time in low paying jobs. If so, they are not part of the unemployment statistics and are considered successful examples of the U.S. pulling itself out of recession.

Of course having a large part of the country on food-aid is an expensive proposition. How exactly has the U.S. paid for this? Well, one way is through the approximately $2 trillion in money that the Federal Reserve has printed since 2007. Two trillion dollars of phony money can really juice up an economy. Without it, the GDP would still be in a deep hole from its 2007 levels and the illusion of economic recovery wouldn't exist. If it turns there's no free lunch after all, the U.S. is going to be hit with a very big inflation bill in the future. Don't expect Fed Chair Ben Bernanke to see this coming though. After all, the Fed remained oblivious to the Great Recession long after it had started. Even in the spring of 2008, their meeting notes indicate that they were still hopeful about avoiding the recession that had begun months before.

Investors should expect an ongoing stream of articles in the next several weeks or even months about how the U.S. is not going to experience another recession. The stock market is sending a very different message though and even the fluffed up economic statistics the government produces are likely to look a bit anemic this fall. But don't worry, establishment economists are optimistic as they always are when a recession begins.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/289200-economists-don-t-see-the-recession-that-h...
=============================================
One should not get too confused by imagining that people such as Politicians, Economists & Central Bankers are there to inform us, about how they see future realities.

The Truth is, that they generally tell us how they would like to see the future, not how they expect it to actually be!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #273 - Aug 27^th, 2011 at 12:20pm

Will Boomers Ruin Stocks for the Rest of Us?

At its most fundamental level, the stock market is merely a measure of supply and demand. So as the biggest and wealthiest part of the U.S. population approaches a situation in which its members will start needing to liquidate their vast investment portfolios in order to cover living expenses, it only makes sense to wonder whether all that extra supply of shares will hurt stock prices for years to come.

A recent study tries to quantify exactly what impact baby boomers will have on the stock market. Although the results are indeed alarming, there's a silver lining for long-term investors -- one that should help keep you from making emotional decisions that could threaten the success of your investing plan over the long run.

Selling out
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco tried to answer the question of what would happen with stocks as baby boomers begin to retire.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-26.html
To do so, it looked at the ratio of middle-aged workers in their 40s to older workers and young retirees in their 60s and compared it with the valuation of the stock market. Interestingly, the research found a strong connection between stock prices and this age ratio.

In particular, during the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s, boomers were in their peak earning and investing years, while a relatively small part of the population was approaching or entering retirement.

The report argues that those trends pushed earnings multiples for stocks up toward their peak around 30 in the late 1990s. Conversely, as boomers aged over the past decade, they gave way to a smaller cohort of middle-aged workers from the so-called baby bust, and as a result, earnings multiples have fallen.

The bad news is that this trend is likely to continue. In fact, the report suggests that P/E multiples could contract further, from their current levels in the mid-teens to as low as 8.4 by 2025.

Even assuming that inflation-adjusted earnings continue to grow at past rates -- an assumption that could prove heroic -- the research suggests a 13% real drop in stock prices, with stocks not returning to their 2010 levels on an inflation-adjusted basis until 2027.

The report does admit that other factors, including foreign investment and prices of competing investments like bonds, could affect these projections. But if you want to invest with demographic trends in mind, the key is to figure out which stocks boomers are most likely to want to hang onto -- and to make sure to get out of the ones that boomers will want to sell first.

Link -
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/08/25/will-boomers-ruin-stocks-for-the-rest-of-...
============================================
The Truth is, the Ageing Baby Boomer effect is only one of a group of major Economic influencing factors that are in the process of changing the accepted/standard Economic paradigms.

These major factors include -
1) Demographics (Boomer Ageing & Future actual Population Declines)
2) Peak Energy (Fossil Fuels)
3) Peak Debt
4) Climate Change

Individually, these factors would create adverse Economic outcomes!
Combining, as they currently are, these factors will change our way of life, as we have known it!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #274 - Aug 28^th, 2011 at 11:40am

Prospects For U.S. Stocks Grim

The latest thing whipping around the web is research that concludes domestic equity returns are going to stink for many years to come for what amounts to demographic reasons.

I first became aware of demographics' potential to move stocks a little over 20 years ago when I worked at Lehman Brothers. Back then it was put to us as a positive; wealth transference from Boomers' parents to the Boomers going into stocks and then at some point along the way it spun around to concern for what will happen when the Boomers take their money out when they presumably retire.

While I believe in demographic trends this type of look forward for US markets also needs to take in the fundamental picture too. The fundamentals are well worn ground so I'll just say there is a lack of visibility of what will help turn things around other than time, which is not much to build an investment thesis on.

This whole idea will be familiar to long-time readers in terms of prospects for US markets being relatively unattractive. I've probably underestimated the magnitude of the consequence of this but we have been heavy in foreign equities since before this site started.

Quite frankly I think this type of general outcome has been quite obvious for many years and I think it is still quite obvious looking forward. There will of course be big up years along the way but over some reasonable period of time, like maybe five years, the returns will smooth out to a lower average--this has been going on and I am saying I believe it will continue.

This belief has been a big reason for why I have sought out exposure to foreign and to themes for client portfolios. A long running idea here has been that "normal" returns were available in many countries during the previous decade and they will be available in this decade if the conclusions linked to above about the US turn out to be correct. To the extent there is comfort in crowds, much of the industry has been slow to adopt these views for US prospects and where to go to get "normal" returns.

Being wrong about this sort of thing is referred to as career risk but even if the 9% per year linear return is a thing of the past (it never really existed) you can spend the time and take the risk thus giving yourself (or your clients) a better chance at some desired average return. I do not mean to imply this is easy but it is not rocket science either.

Time spent, even if just focusing on what to avoid, will hopefully help some people.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/290101-prospects-for-u-s-stocks-grim?source=emai...
==========================================
As I have previously said, all markets are Globally connected and in particular, they are still connected to what happens in the USA!

However, what is now ocurring is the result of decades of inappropriate actions or lack of actions, in areas such as -
1) Underfunding of Boomer retirement pensions (Public & Private).
2) A lack of understanding on how Health costs would escalate, as the Boomer generation went into their retirement years.
3) Under regulation, particularly in the financial sector
4) Under Taxing, particularly of Business & the top 10% of income earners.
5) Overspending, by governments in general, but particularly at a Federal level and particularly that spending aimed at bailing out Private Financial institutions who did not derserve to be bailed out, by Public money!
6) How the 10 years prior to the start of the "official" Boomer retirement period and the next 20-30 years after, would be affected by the changing patterns of Demand for all sorts of Products & Services. These patterns have already started to head lower and they must continue to head lower, for many years, as the massive Boomer generation head into a much more frugal period, particularly given what will be a likely & considerable drop in their asset values, of their two main assets, those being Real Estate & Equities!

Finally, whilst measures can still be taken, to prevent the most adverse of outcomes, the Truth is it is regrettably too late for any normal corrective measures.

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perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: What's the Real truth? Reply #275 - Aug 28^th, 2011 at 11:53am Following is chart of projected PE ratio's, which The SanFran Fed has recently published.
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perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: What's the Real truth? Reply #276 - Aug 30^th, 2011 at 1:36pm Architects & Engineers - Solving the Mystery of WTC 7 - 9/11Truth.org The Real Truth, is still out there!
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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #277 - Sep 1^st, 2011 at 9:42am

Aging Baby Boomers May Curb U.S. Expansion

Women and baby boomers entering the American workforce helped to supercharge expansions in 1975 and 1983 by filling an increasing number of jobs and purchasing more goods and services. Now as the share of women with jobs falls and older Americans age into retirement, the shrinking -- or, at best, slowly growing -- workforce will weaken economic activity for the next two decades.

The demographic changes may be the biggest and least- appreciated reason why the two-year recovery has slowed, because the rate of growth for labor and capital is “the most important determinant” of economic expansion, said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist for Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.

More retirees mean slower household formation, reduced consumer spending and downward pressure on equity prices as retirement cuts people’s purchasing power, according to John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Group in New York, and Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

“A weaker labor force does dampen the pace of the rebound,” along with “our expectation for what an expansionary trend is,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “We should be lowering our sights on potential GDP compared to when our population was younger.”

Growth ‘Speed Limit’
Anemic gains in the number of new workers has effectively cut the long-term “speed limit for growth” to 2.25 percent, estimates Maki, a former senior economist at the Federal Reserve. That compares with the Fed’s estimated 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent rate for gross domestic product and average growth of 3.2 percent from 1980 to 2000.

Automakers General Motors Co. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) and natural- foods grocer Whole Foods Market Inc. may be hurt by the shift because most retirees will cut spending on big-ticket items and nonessentials, said C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America’s Research Group in Charleston, S.C., a consulting company that studies consumer behavior.

“Older people tend to have lower incomes, their consumption tends to be lower and in that sense, consumer- spending growth would be weaker as well,” said Moody’s Faucher. “There will be fewer people in prime car-buying years,” and “recreational goods and services are a young-adult thing.”

Sell Shares
The aging population also may hold down stock values for the next two decades as boomers sell shares to finance retirement, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco research paper released Aug. 22.

“The mentality has shifted to preserving wealth rather than growing wealth, with less-risky portfolio allocations,” said Emily Sanders, president of Sanders Financial Management Inc. in Norcross, Georgia, whose largest group of clients is aged 55-65. A typical 65-year-old may have 50 percent of his portfolio in stocks, which would drop to 30 percent at age 80, she said.

Aging Population
An estimated 72 million people, or 19.3 percent of the population, will be 65 and older by 2030, compared with 40 million, or 13 percent, in 2010, the Census Bureau estimates.

While new college graduates will assume some jobs as retirees leave the workforce, young adults’ share of the population is shrinking. By 2030, there will be 34 million people aged 18 to 24, representing 9.1 percent of the population, down from 9.9 percent in 2010, according to the Census Bureau. The share of people aged 25 to 44 will drop to 25.5 percent from 26.8 percent.

“We are at the threshold of retirement mountain: a huge, huge change in the numbers of people who are reaching the age where they are leaving the labor force,” said Neal Soss, chief economist with Credit Suisse Holdings USA in New York.

While losses from declines in the value of 401k and similar accounts may force some to delay retirement, these delays will be temporary, he said.

Boomers started turning 65 this year, and every day for the next 18 years, about 10,000 more will hit the age that historically has been associated with retirement, according to the Pew Research Center in Washington. Women’s participation in the labor force may decline slightly during the next 40 years to about 57 percent because fewer will have jobs as they grow older, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects.

Contracting Labor Force
All this means the workforce will expand 0.6 percent annually for the next 40 years, down sharply from 2 percent between 1950 and 1985, according to the bureau. The labor force has contracted 1.1 percent since 2008, mainly because the recession has forced people out of jobs and made it difficult for them to find new employment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-30/aging-baby-boomers-shrinking-labor-forc...
============================================
Whilst much of this article is correct, it continues a trend where people look at issues in isolation.

In Truth, this Demographic trend is only one of the major trends affecting Global Economics!

The others are -
1) Demographics (A reducing global Population, as boomers die)
2) Peak Energy
3) Massive Global Debt
4) Climate Change

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Gimme Gimme

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #278 - Sep 1^st, 2011 at 10:43am

Thank you for that powerful message..much appreciated.

I'll put this one on file for our Australia wide letter box drop to Australians being lied to by the corporate owned Liberal Party and TOXIC Tony Abbott. We as Australians who are concerned about the future for our children and our grand children have a moral obligation now to start a powerful Labor anti fear mongering campaign against the big mining owned Liberal Party. We have to awaken the Alan Jones grannies and isolated Australians with no access to the TRUTH apart from vile right wing shock jock radio propagandists!

We have two full years to SHAME this ugly man called Tony Abbott!! Angry

It WILL happen!

Cheers

'If everyone demanded peace instead of another television set, then there'd be peace.' &&John Lennon

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perceptions_now

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #279 - Sep 3^rd, 2011 at 9:52pm

The Mighty US$

Last Report dated 06/08/2011

US$ Index (basket of Currencies): @ 74.71 (Last Report - 74.52) (2010/06/04 - 87.85)
http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex24hour.php

Euro - US$: @ 1.4205 (Last Report - 1.4282) (2010/06/04 - 120.44)
AUD$ - US$: @ 1.0645 (Last Report - 1.0442) (2010/06/04 - 83.17)
AUD$ - GBP: @ 0.6563 (Last Report - 0.6371) (2010/06/04 - 57.04)
AUD$ - EURO: @ 0.7492 (Last Report - 0.7312) (2010/06/04 - 69.06)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/fxc.html

Gold - @ US$1,884.20 (Last Report - US$1,651.80) (2010/06/04 - $1,207.80)
Oil WTi - @ US$86.45 (Last Report - US$86.88) (2011/03/19 US$101.01) (2010/06/04 - $70.22)
BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDIY) - @ 1,740 (Up 58 @ Friday close) (Last Report – 1,268) (2010/06/04 - 3,844)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

DOW @ 11,240 - (Down 253 @ Friday close) (Last Report - 11,445) (2010/06/04 - 11,444)
ALL ORDS @ 4,322 (Down 61 @ Wednesday close) (Last Report - 4,170) (2010/06/04 - 4,840)
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE @ 2,528 (Down 28 @ Friday close) (Last Report - 2,626) (2010/06/04 - 2,553)
http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0

Last 5 years DOW -
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart3:symbol=

THERE was movement at the FED, for the word had passed around, That the US$ was an old Regret and its value had long since passed away
==================

Well, the VOLATILITY certainly has continued to escalate!

US$ Index
After approaching 89 in June and going under 76 in November, the US$ index finished 2010 at 78.96.
It then rose to 81, before falling again to a low of 75.57.
After hitting a recent low of around 73.50, the US$ has spiked again on recent turmoil, finishing Friday at $74.71
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/M

AUD$ - US$
One of the big winners last year was the OZ$, which slid to $0.83 against the US$ in June and has since recovered dramatically to close 2010 at $1.0233.
The OZ$ had range traded, but recent events had seen it drop to around 0.98, before rebounding to its current levels.
The OZ$ closed Friday at 1.0645, after trading recently as high as $1.076 range.
The OZ$ has also picked on the cross rates, against both the GBP & the Euro.

Gold
Gold dipped a little early in the year to around $1,050 in February, but finished the year strongly at $1,421.40.
It has since slipped and threatened to break back under $1,300, before rising again.
Gold has continued its recent charge, up from US$1,541.60 on July 9th, to US$1,651.80 on August 6th and US$1,884.20 today.

Oil WTi
Having slipped below $70 mid year, Crude Oil recovered to finish 2010 at $91.38.
It since slipped to around $85, before escalating sharply on Middle East tension to rise to around $107 a barrel.
After coming down from US$96.20 on July 9th, to US$86.88 on August 6th, Oil has been up & down, but finished Friday at US$86.45, close to its price at the August report.

The Oil Price will now decline along with the Global Economy, for some time, before recommencing it's rise, due to Supply related problems!

BALTIC DRY INDEX (BDIY)
The Baltic Dry Index finished Friday at 1,740, up somewhat on the previous report. However, I suspect that level will fall again in coming months.

DOW
Share markets after reaching mid year lows, as the DOW went from just under 9800 in July, to finish 2010 at 11,577.
The DOW Declined from 12,657 on July 9th, to 11,445 on August 6th, before hitting a recent low of 10,719 on August 10th, amid some wild recent fluctuations, before finishing down 253 on Friday, at 11,240.
Given the basic Economic factors in play, I suspect the trend is down & we are not yet anywhere close to a bottom.

ALL ORDS
The Australian market rose from just under 4,300 in July to finish 2010 at 4,847.
The All Ords Declined from 4,716 on July 9th, to 4,170 on August 6th, before hitting a recent low of 4057 on August 8th amid some wild swings, before finishing down 61 on Friday, at 4,321.
Following the US & Europe performances on Friday, it is likely that OZ will follow on Monday with another fall!
OZ, as with most other countries will follow the US and I therefore suspect that the All Ords is also no where close to a bottom.

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE
The Shanghai Composite continues to be the Roller Coaster Ride!
The Shanghai Composite finished down 28 on Friday, to close at 2,528.

NOTE: Given the REAL, BASIC ECONOMIC FACTORS involved -
1) Declining Demand, due to Demographics (Baby Boomer Ageing & Job losses) and the Public anticipating a poor Economic future, due to Debt problems in the US & Europe.
2) Peak Energy & related issues.
3) Neither side of the Economic divide (Keynesians Vs Austrians) can magically solve the current Global Economic dilemma's.
4) Bernanke & the FED are Impotent.
5) Obama can not stimulate the US Economy, as US Debt is already far too high, so any possible stimulus measures can only be mild and that is, IF any measures can get past the Republicans & the Tea Party.

I WOULD SUGGEST, THE TRUTH IS, THAT EQUITIES ARE GOING TO TAKE A HAMMERING for quite some time.

Good luck & watch the Debt!

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #280 - Sep 5^th, 2011 at 8:15pm

For the record -
1) The Australian All Ords has fallen about 10%, since its late July Peak.
2) The US DOW has fallen about 12%, since its late July Peak.
3) The UK FTSE has fallen about 13%, since its late July Peak.
and the European Powerhouses ?
4) The French CAC has fallen about 21%, since its late July Peak.
4) The German DAX has fallen about 27%, since its late July Peak.

I hope the rest of Europe are not relying on the French & the Germans, because IF they are, the Truth is they may be sorely disappointed!

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #281 - Sep 7^th, 2011 at 1:19pm

Yes, the OZ market has bounced today!

Following a bounce started in the US last night, where the DOW was down some 270 points,(which was following what happened in Europe the night before), it then turned around to finish the session down by only 101 points and DOW Futures have continued that trend, being up 66 now.

It could be there is an expectation that Obama is going to revive the "Exponential Growth Fairy", which is currently on life support in intensive care, in a speech he is due to make before the US Congress on Thursday?

Regrettably, the reality is that Obama, the FED and all those other "Economic authorities" have been making statements, which is all they can now do.

In Truth, they are now impotent, they can not revive the "Exponential Growth Fairy", in the face of the Macro factors now influencing Global Economics.

The Truth, bearing in mind the Demographics, Peaking Global Energy Supplies, Peaking Global Debt & Climate Change issues, there is zero chance of the "authorities" reviving Growth and if the Truth were known, I doubt that is their real intention, at least at some of the highest Global levels?

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #282 - Sep 10^th, 2011 at 8:32am

DOW - 10,992.13
Down 303.68 (2.69%)

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/zs=%5eDJI&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-AU&region=AU

U.S. stocks slammed by Europe’s troubles

U.S. stock indexes dove Friday on heightened worry about Greece’s debt crisis, pushing the dollar to a six-month high against the euro and 10-year yields to a record low.

The distress came along with news that the European Central Bank’s top economist had quit and that Germany was reportedly preparing to safeguard its banks against a possible Greek default.

“The perception is the ECB is not on the same page, that it doesn’t have a clear vision of how to stimulate the economy,” said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at Charles Schwab Corp.

Tallying its sixth straight triple-digit move, and its worst day in more than three weeks, The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -2.69% lost 303.68 points, or 2.7%, to 10,992.13, down 2.2% from the week-ago close.

All of the blue chips’ 30 components lost ground, including McDonald Corp.’s MCD -0.05% off 4%, after the world’s biggest burger chain reported a less-than-anticipated increase in global sales for August.

Also weighing on the Dow, Bank of America Corp. BAC -0.14% shares shed 3.1% on a Wall Street Journal report that executives have discussed cutting about 40,000 jobs in an initial restructuring wave.

Link -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-battered-by-ecb-members-exit-2011-09-...
========================================
The Truth is, Central banks and governments are now pretty much impotent, events are now in self sustaining feedback loops, much like Climate Change.

At some time, in the not too distant future, a tipping point will arrive, possibly Greece OR something else and the equity markets will crash.

That crash will most likely start in Europe or the US, but will flow on to the rest of the world, including China & the developing countries in Asia & elsewhere.

The crash is likely to see something in the order of 30-50% wiped off share values in the short term, but around 50-75%, in the longer term!

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #283 - Sep 13^th, 2011 at 8:54am

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/zs=%5eDJI&t=1d&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-AU&region=AU

So, after DOW Futures were down 240 shortly before trading started on the DOW, markets started to rise and within an hour of trading commencing the DOW was even.

However, after the usual ups & downs, the DOW was down about 170 with an hour & a half left of trading when rumours hit the market of the Chinese coming to the rescue of Italy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/u-s-stock-index-futures-decline-amid-co...

And, at the close, the DOW is up by 69.

So, as usual, another bout of slight of hand?

But, at the end of the day, slight of hand is not enough!

Reality eventually catches up and the Greek situation just foesn't magically disappear -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-12/greece-s-risk-of-default-increases-to-9...

That said and whilst Greece is bad enough, there is "No Hiding Place From the Bigger Crisis" -
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/No-Hiding-Place-From-Crisis-cnbc-3512402427.html?x...

"Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics is very worried about Europe. His central forecast is that the debt crisis will lead Europe into a depression that will mean soaring unemployment, deflation and zero interest rates for the foreseeable future.

After months of inaction, Weinberg believes the time to stop a Greek default has now passed. He believes that once it becomes clear that Greece has defaulted, the market will quickly come to the realization that other euro zone members like Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will be allowed to fail as well.

With the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) sitting on 3 trillion euros in debt, Weinberg is assuming losses could ultimately hit 50 cents in the euro, leading to a 1.5 trillion euro hit to the financial system.

This will in Weinberg's opinion force banks to stop lending. Governments will then be forced to bail them out, elevating debt-to-GDP ratios for national governments to "horrific levels"

With US and UK banks likely to have big on and off balance sheet exposure, Weinberg warns all they can do is prepare for the worse.

"There is no place to hide from this, at least not in the Euroland. German banks are no safer than Greek ones in this disaster scenario. The myth that bunds are a safe haven from Euroland debt woes will be proven wrong the minute the first German bank announces that it needs public help to recapitalize it," he said."

I'm sure, the sounds of the last can, being kicked down the last road, will still be ringing in the markets ears, as those same markets go into meltdown!

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #284 - Sep 14^th, 2011 at 3:24pm

Are The U.S. And Europe Headed Down Japan's Road?

In the past two years a lot of analysts have been warning that the US and/or Europe are about to turn “Japanese”. By this I guess they mean that very high levels of debt are going to set the stage for one or two decades of economic stagnation and zero growth.

I am not sure I agree. I think these kinds of comparisons seriously miss the point about what went wrong in Japan in the 1980s. Except at a very superficial levels Japan’s imbalances before 1990 were very different from the imbalances from which Europe and the US suffer today, and the resolutions in each case are likely to be very different.

But we are nonetheless hearing the comparison more and more often.

Believers of the west-is-turning-into-Japan argument point to several similarities. In both cases, large debt burdens mean sluggish growth after a stock market crash. Meanwhile, the political response to the troubles is confused and does little to alleviate the pain. “It is blatantly obvious that those comparisons are valid,” says Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of US fund manager DoubleLine. “[We have] over-indebtedness and banks with bad assets that they are not writing down because otherwise they would be insolvent. Instead, you try to grind it out on a multi-year horizon.”

These characteristics, it turns out, are the same characteristics we have seen dozens of times in the past two centuries. In fact they are the fairly normal set of characteristics during any financial crisis, Japanese-style or not. The one exception in Milligan’s list may be “poor demographics”, but that of course depends on what you mean by “poor”. If all you mean is a rapidly aging and declining population, then this characteristic is something pretty new to the history of financial crises, although for that reason it is not clear that it is a vitally important characteristic, and anyway Japan’s demographics are in no way like those of the US, whose population is growing quite quickly and is barely aging (and even Europe is not aging nearly as quickly and is far more open than Japan – at least for now – to immigration).

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/293074-are-the-u-s-and-europe-headed-down-japan-...
=========================================
Whilst there are some similarities between the Japanese situation of the last 20 years, to what is now happening, there are also some differences.

Yes, there is a substantial Ageing Demographic in Japan, which started well before the rest of the world and that situation is now also being reflected in the 80 Million US Baby Boomers, with similar situations in most other countries around the world.

In itself, this Ageing Demographic issue is quite a large drag on the Economy of each country, as has already been demonstrated in Japan.

However, in these times of a Global Economy, Japan was at least supported by virtue that the rest of the Global Economy was still "bubbling" along just fine, at least initially.

That said, as this century began, the same Demographic issue start to creep into other Economies, as more & more Baby Boomers started to move toward their official retirement years.

By 2005 the Boomer Demographic effect was becoming apparent, as Housing fell, because Boomer Demand was reducing in the US.

But, with the Boomer Demographic being worldwide, Demand for many Products & Services is also falling, as the massive Demographic moves into a more stringent retirement mode!

Of course, that also means that the Supply of many Resources, Capital & Labour is also going to fall.

So far, we have only raised the Ageing Demographic factor, which would certainly be a predictor of poor Economic outcomes, as it is unique in history, because of the sheer scale of numbers involved in Boomer retirements over the next 20 years.

However, that is not that only massive, nor unique factor involved, in the current Global Economic dilemmas.

In addition, there is -
1) Peak Global Total Population, where the Population of many countries will actually cease to grow, as it has almost always done and never greater than the last 80 years.
Most countries will actually arrive at a Peak Carrying capacity over the next 20 years or so and those Population levels will then commence to decline, in individual countries, but also Globally.
The Economic effect simply of the reduced growth would be large, but the effects of an actual decline will be massive.
Can't we simply start another Baby Boomer?
The answer is No!
And the reasons are Peak Energy and Peak Resources in general, including Food & Water!

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