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What's the Real truth? (Read 29144 times)
Maeve
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #30 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 12:10pm
 
http://climatereview.net/ChewTheFat/?p=206
Conclusion

So, there is perhaps an air of hypocrisy around Ross Garnaut’s position as “Champion of the Green movement”?  His hands are covered in muck, and we’re not talking about him pottering around his cabbage patch on a Sunday here.  The muck that he’s knee deep in is phenomenally toxic and, in classic colonial style, polluting jolly foreigner’s island whilst he’s reaping massive rewards.  He deregulated Papua New Guinea in the 70s and, since then, is now profiteering massively from their gold resources.  He really sets the “Gold” standard when it comes to environmentalism.

Evil, exploitative capitalism I can handle, but lashings of hypocrisy, well, that just gets my goat.

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #31 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 12:21pm
 
cods wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:43am:
philperth2010 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:35am:
Put simply, the crucial questions are very straight forward -
1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

b) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!

b) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!


It makes no difference weather climate change is real or not.....fossil fuels are dwindling fast.....when supply becomes even more erratic the price will sky rocket.....We cannot afford to wait and hope cheap fuel will last forever!!!





1) phil they have known about shrinking fossil fuel for ages...

2) they have worked on that for ages..

3) we cant sell enough of our ore/coal overseas quick enough..

4) so I have no doubt we have enough to get by on for a few more years yet..

5) in fact with a recession stareing us in the face we are very very much hoping to sell more of our fossil ore overseas to keep our head about water.


6) so does it seem alright with you that we put the CARBON CRISIS GW on the backburner untill after a recession has passed???????????


Cods,
Are you sure that you're not another Maqqa sock, because that post pretty much proves that you are as thick as Maqqa is!

1) That's correct, THEY have known about Peak Energy for quite some time.

2) That's also correct, probably a good 40, maybe 50 years.

3) That's also correct, but should that be any surprise, given what has already been acknowledged about Energy supply problems?

4) That's partially correct, that we have a few more years Energy Supplies left.
In fact, Globally we would likely have another 40-60 years of Fossil Fuels (Oil, Coal & Natural Gas and let's throw Uranium into that time line to), at current rates of use.
But those current rates of use will simply become impossible shortly, because Production/Supply will start to Decline!
Demand will continue to head North, for some time, in line with increasing Global Population.
Therefore, Economics 101 will ensure that Prices will rise and rise dramatically, as Demand outstrips Supply.
But, of even greater importance will be Energy shortages, even in first world Economies.
However, the ramifications will be far more pronounced & deadly in Developing & Thrid world Economies!

5) I'm now shaking my head!
You finally acknowledge that some of what I've been talking about is correct, by saying that we (OZ & Globally) are heading back into Recession, which we never really left.
But then, you turn around and say that you hope we sell more of our fossil ore overseas.
If the rest of the world heads back into Recession, which I expect it will, then the Global Energy Consumption will Decline, not increase and our exports will also Decline!
The overrider to that, could be if the Chinese decide not to proceed with their Nuclear program, given the recent Japanese problems and the fact the the Chinese Nuclear reactors would also be situated in a similar area, prone to the Pacific Rim of Fire (Earthquake zone).

But, the overriding issue from an Australian perspective is that all of the Fossil Fuels are set to get very expensive, then run out, within 40-60 years, so we shouldn't sell any overseas, we should keep it for our own future Consumption, IF NECESSARY!

6) So, does it seemed ok to put the Carbon Crisis on the backburner until after the Recession passes?
HELL NO!
Because of Peak Energy & the other major factors -
1) Demographics - The Baby Boomer Bust.
2) Climate Change.
3) Massive Global Debt overload.
this recession will be quite long and time is simply a luxury we don't have, as there are lengthy time lags involved in any attacks that may be possible, if we are to avoid the worst future affects of Climate Change!
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Prevailing
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #32 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:05pm
 
You can win this debate by collectively sending your power bills back unpaid until this farce stops.  Take action, take to the streets, riot, bring down the world dictatorship.

Class War till the end

http://catmacros.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/anarchy_sid_vicious_quote_cat.jpgw=480&h=408 Smiley
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I condemn Male Violence Against Women
The Government Supports Gynocide
There Is Something Dreadfully Wrong With Men
 
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #33 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm
 
philperth2010 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:35am:
Put simply, the crucial questions are very straight forward -
1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

b) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!

b) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!


It makes no difference weather climate change is real or not.....fossil fuels are dwindling fast.....when supply becomes even more erratic the price will sky rocket.....We cannot afford to wait and hope cheap fuel will last forever!!!


Phil, that's a ridiculous response...
The planet would NOT 'be in real trouble' in the event of Q2a...
Nor for that matter, in Q2b.....
If (or rather when) fossil fuels 'run out' or run low, humanity will simply change to alternative energy sources....

Your responses to Q1 apply equally to Q2...

PN's original 'crucial questions' are in fact the very same question, reworded....
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #34 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm
 
I post this here, because it's relevant!

Soren wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 12:00pm:
AGW is real and we do
something
- cost is equal to the cost of what we are doing. Whether it is effective is unknown as the effects of AGW are unknown.
nothing - cost is equal to the effects of AGW (unknown).



AGW is not real and we do  
Something
 - cost is equal to the cost of whatever we are doing but it is all pointless waste as far as the climate is concerned
nothing - no cost.



A sober assessment indicates that it is better to wait and see what happoens and spend the money on coping with any change that may eventuate than to start spending in advance on a change that we do not fully understand either in scope or whether it is going to happen at all.

It is certainly much more prudent to explore ways of capturing and storing CO2 than to cripple industry and global development.






1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!


We, the current batch of humans, would have done whatever we could to prevent a catastrophe and we would have done so on the user pays principle. At least, we would not have completely postponed any costs, exclusively to future generations, so that we could continue to pander to our own immediate whims!

There is no denying that the costs of taking action now, would be significant and when combined with what is already happening relevant to -
1) Demographics - The Baby Boomer Bust.
2) Peak Energy.
3) Massive Global Debt overload.
those costs would most likely make the upcoming Depression, very long & even more painfull.
In relative GDP terms, if all countries chipped in now, then the cost could perhaps be at least 5% of GDP.

However, an overrider is that it must be an all in approach, if some of the larger Economies such as the USA, China, India, Europe and even Australia do not play ball fairly, then whatever is done is likely not to bear fruit and failure will have severe costs!  

b) Incorrect!

Then we will unnecessarily have exacerbated a Depression, into a severe Depression.

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!

Then we will unnecessarily have exacerbated a Depression, into a severe Depression.

b) Incorrect!

IF action does not start fairly soon on both Climate Change & Peak Energy, then the results would be -
* The entire Global Economy may vanish!
* A catastrophe, in human loss of life, on a Biblical scale!

The basic difference between the two approaches, is that if we accept there may be a Threat, then we will have simply followed good business practices and acted on the SWOT approach, which is simply a strategic planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in any project, Private business venture and Governments, at all levels.

We will have detected possible Threats, such as Climate Change & Peak Energy and done our Due Diligence, to see that future generations had a reasonable chance of living a life worth living.

In other words, we (collectively) will simply have done what good businesses, governments & individuals should do, every day and what most actually do.

We have assessed the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats, several significant Threats have appeared and we have treated them according to their priority. These threats, whilst some may say they are not overwhelming, nor perhaps even likely, they are of such a size, if they become reality, that we CAN NOT IGNORE THEM.

So, we do what good business pratice dictates, we look at insurance to cover the RISK of SYSTEMIC MELTDOWN, by getting everyone to pitch in a bit every year,  as preventative measures and we take all possible mitigation measures, to try to prevent the systemic meltdown of the Business/Government/Global Economy.    

The likely outcomes of two scenario's is the same, we simply make a bad scenario worse.

If we assume that Climate Change is real, it turns out to be real, we take proper Business Risk mitgation and everyone joins in, then humanity & the Economy, still has hope.

If we assume that Climate Change is NOT real,  but it turns out to be real, we continue with Business as usual and do nothing, then humanity & the Economy, losses all hope and we really are doomed.
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #35 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:34pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
I post this here, because it's relevant!


What if humanity depended on us using all the fossil fuels to invent ways of suriving major disasters. What then.

I give you crack pot idea against your crack pot idea of AGW and having to do something.
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #36 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:42pm
 


progressiveslol wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:34pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
I post this here, because it's relevant!


What if humanity depended on us using all the fossil fuels to invent ways of suriving major disasters. What then.

I give you crack pot idea against your crack pot idea of AGW and having to do something.




Actually, you indirectly point to an important aspect of the fossil 'fuel' consumption debate - i.e. that: humanity ought to be conserving its finite oil reserves for far more valuable and productive long-term uses, by future generations, than once-off combustion for temporary energy!

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Lamenting the shift in the Australian psyche, away from the egalitarian ideal of the fair-go - and the rise of short-sighted pollies, who worship the 'Growth Fairy' and seek to divide and conquer!
 
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #37 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:46pm
 
progressiveslol wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:34pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
I post this here, because it's relevant!


What if humanity depended on us using all the fossil fuels to invent ways of suriving major disasters. What then.

I give you crack pot idea against your crack pot idea of AGW and having to do something.


Who knows? We should never say, never, but that scenario is "somewhat less likely than Peak Oil & Climate Change".

The difference is that both Peak Energy & Climate Change are already on the radar and they are real & present dangers, now!

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #38 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:47pm
 


...

...

Quote:
For more than 2 million years our earth has cycled in and out of Ice Ages, accompanied by massive ice sheets accumulating over polar landmasses and a cold, desert-like global climate. Although the tropics during the Ice Age were still tropical, the temperate regions and sub-tropical regions were markedly different than they are today. There is a strong correlation between temperature and CO2 concentrations during this time.

Historically, glacial cycles of about 100,000 years are interupted by brief warm interglacial periods-- like the one we enjoy today. Changes in both temperatures and CO2 are considerable and generally synchronized, according to data analysis from ice and air samples collected over the last half century from permanent glaciers in Antarctica and other places. Interglacial periods of 15,000- 20,000 years provide a brief respite from the normal state of our natural world-- an Ice Age Climate. Our present interglacial vacation from the last Ice Age began about 18,000 years ago.

Over the last 400,000 years the natural upper limit of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is assumed from the ice core data to be about 300 ppm. Other studies using proxy such as plant stomata, however, indicate this may closer to the average value, at least over the last 15,000 years. Today, CO2 concentrations worldwide average about 380 ppm. Compared to former geologic periods, concentrations of CO2 in our atmosphere are still very small and may not have a statistically measurable effect on global temperatures. For example, during the Ordovician Period 460 million years ago CO2 concentrations were 4400 ppm while temperatures then were about the same as they are today.

Do rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause increasing global temperatures, or could it be the other way around? This is one of the questions being debated today. Interestingly, CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes-- confirming that CO2 is not the cause of the temperature increases. One thing is certain-- earth's climate has been warming and cooling on it's own for at least the last 400,000 years, as the data below show. At year 18,000 and counting in our current interglacial vacation from the Ice Age, we may be due-- some say overdue-- for return to another icehouse climate!



http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_400k_yrs.html
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #39 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 3:16pm
 


...


This is the alarming graph. Suddenly it looks as though co2 has gone off the radar.  What will hurt the ecosystem is the rate of change. No plant or animal will be able to evolve in time for the change.

Worldwide temperature data is showing a clear warming.  There is no peer researched data which is not falling into line with the global warming theory.
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #40 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 3:27pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 3:16pm:
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/CO2_0-400k_yrs.gif


This is the alarming graph. Suddenly it looks as though co2 has gone off the radar.  What will hurt the ecosystem is the rate of change. No plant or animal will be able to evolve in time for the change.

Worldwide temperature data is showing a clear warming.  There is no peer researched data which is not falling into line with the global warming theory.


And you completely missed the corelation between historic Co2 levels and historic temperatures, didn't you???
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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #41 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:14pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 3:27pm:
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 3:16pm:
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/CO2_0-400k_yrs.gif


This is the alarming graph. Suddenly it looks as though co2 has gone off the radar.  What will hurt the ecosystem is the rate of change. No plant or animal will be able to evolve in time for the change.

Worldwide temperature data is showing a clear warming.  There is no peer researched data which is not falling into line with the global warming theory.


And you completely missed the corelation between historic Co2 levels and historic temperatures, didn't you???

lol he didnt even see that CO2 followed the temps and didnt drive them. IPCC loves his type of mushroom, oh and skip.
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #42 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:20pm
 
Both these graphs are highly misleading for anything over a few thousand years.   No data is reliable after that.  Thats basic science.

The problem with the misuse of scientific data is the they grab one bit of data from one source, ignore the error component, plonk it into excel and produce whatever they want.

Here they are trying to potray everything as absolutely normal, except they forgot to chop off the last few decades on the co2 graph.

World temperature has been rising. Perhaps they chopped that off the temp graph, or found one of the temp samples that bucked the trend. But across all samples, the world is warming.

Its very mischeivious for sham artists to misuse data like this, and then expect non-scientific review to be anywhere near accurate.  Climate scientists is an amazingly complex field. Anyone who has not worked in the field for a good couple of decades shouldnt be trying to draw their own conclusions.

I dont advice rocket scientists how to build rockets, and neither should you.
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #43 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:36pm
 

Skeptics seem to be focussed on fudging data to show that we can beltch out a few billion tonnes of c02 every year and it will have no effect.

Even the simpliest of minds, must wonder what is happening to that co2. Where is it going, and what is it doing.

It must be impossible to believe that we can continue to beltch out that much, exponentially increasing, ad infinitum, and not cause any changes ?

Even if you can convince yourself the world is not warming ( it is) but is the sea not getting more carbonic ?  Is sealife producing smaller shells ?, impacting the food chain. ?  Are the hundreds of other consequences not concerning you ?

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #44 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:46pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:36pm:
Skeptics seem to be focussed on fudging data to show that we can beltch out a few billion tonnes of c02 every year and it will have no effect.

Even the simpliest of minds, must wonder what is happening to that co2. Where is it going, and what is it doing.

It must be impossible to believe that we can continue to beltch out that much, exponentially increasing, ad infinitum, and not cause any changes ?

Even if you can convince yourself the world is not warming ( it is) but is the sea not getting more carbonic ?  Is sealife producing smaller shells ?, impacting the food chain. ?  Are the hundreds of other consequences not concerning you ?


Big numbers seem really really big hey. But in the scheme of things, is a drop of water in a 100ltr tank very BIG to you.
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