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What's the Real truth? (Read 29136 times)
philperth2010
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #45 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 5:03pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
philperth2010 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:35am:
Put simply, the crucial questions are very straight forward -
1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

b) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!

b) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!


It makes no difference weather climate change is real or not.....fossil fuels are dwindling fast.....when supply becomes even more erratic the price will sky rocket.....We cannot afford to wait and hope cheap fuel will last forever!!!


Phil, that's a ridiculous response...
The planet would NOT 'be in real trouble' in the event of Q2a...
Nor for that matter, in Q2b.....
If (or rather when) fossil fuels 'run out' or run low, humanity will simply change to alternative energy sources....

Your responses to Q1 apply equally to Q2...

PN's original 'crucial questions' are in fact the very same question, reworded....


Simply change to alternative energy sources....that would be developed and manufactured by whom.....I think you have just confirmed the importance of a policy that provides initiatives to change to renewable energy......Doing nothing is not a solution!!!

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If knowledge can create problems, it is not through ignorance that we can solve them.
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BlOoDy RiPpEr
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #46 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 5:10pm
 
I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!

And we get these end of the earth people in tin foil hats telling us droughts and flooding rains never happened before and its caused by man. "you might fool refo's who are new to this land with that bulldust"
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perceptions_now
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #47 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 6:50pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
I post this here, because it's relevant!

Soren wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 12:00pm:
AGW is real and we do
something
- cost is equal to the cost of what we are doing. Whether it is effective is unknown as the effects of AGW are unknown.
nothing - cost is equal to the effects of AGW (unknown).



AGW is not real and we do  
Something
 - cost is equal to the cost of whatever we are doing but it is all pointless waste as far as the climate is concerned
nothing - no cost.



A sober assessment indicates that it is better to wait and see what happoens and spend the money on coping with any change that may eventuate than to start spending in advance on a change that we do not fully understand either in scope or whether it is going to happen at all.

It is certainly much more prudent to explore ways of capturing and storing CO2 than to cripple industry and global development.






1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!


We, the current batch of humans, would have done whatever we could to prevent a catastrophe and we would have done so on the user pays principle. At least, we would not have completely postponed any costs, exclusively to future generations, so that we could continue to pander to our own immediate whims!

There is no denying that the costs of taking action now, would be significant and when combined with what is already happening relevant to -
1) Demographics - The Baby Boomer Bust.
2) Peak Energy.
3) Massive Global Debt overload.
those costs would most likely make the upcoming Depression, very long & even more painfull.
In relative GDP terms, if all countries chipped in now, then the cost could perhaps be at least 5% of GDP.

However, an overrider is that it must be an all in approach, if some of the larger Economies such as the USA, China, India, Europe and even Australia do not play ball fairly, then whatever is done is likely not to bear fruit and failure will have severe costs!  

b) Incorrect!

Then we will unnecessarily have exacerbated a Depression, into a severe Depression.

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!

Then we will unnecessarily have exacerbated a Depression, into a severe Depression.

b) Incorrect!

IF action does not start fairly soon on both Climate Change & Peak Energy, then the results would be -
* The entire Global Economy may vanish!
* A catastrophe, in human loss of life, on a Biblical scale!

The basic difference between the two approaches, is that if we accept there may be a Threat, then we will have simply followed good business practices and acted on the SWOT approach, which is simply a strategic planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in any project, Private business venture and Governments, at all levels.

We will have detected possible Threats, such as Climate Change & Peak Energy and done our Due Diligence, to see that future generations had a reasonable chance of living a life worth living.

In other words, we (collectively) will simply have done what good businesses, governments & individuals should do, every day and what most actually do.

We have assessed the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats, several significant Threats have appeared and we have treated them according to their priority. These threats, whilst some may say they are not overwhelming, nor perhaps even likely, they are of such a size, if they become reality, that we CAN NOT IGNORE THEM.

So, we do what good business pratice dictates, we look at insurance to cover the RISK of SYSTEMIC MELTDOWN, by getting everyone to pitch in a bit every year,  as preventative measures and we take all possible mitigation measures, to try to prevent the systemic meltdown of the Business/Government/Global Economy.    

The likely outcomes of two scenario's is the same, we simply make a bad scenario worse.

If we assume that Climate Change is real, it turns out to be real, we take proper Business Risk mitgation and everyone joins in, then humanity & the Economy, still has hope.

If we assume that Climate Change is NOT real,  but it turns out to be real, we continue with Business as usual and do nothing, then humanity & the Economy, losses all hope and we really are doomed.


And, here was me, thinking that some of those on the Conservative Right, who seem to think that Business is their domain, may have commented, on what are standard business practices?

But, it's just further proof that the myth of Economic infallibility that many Conservatives raise, is just that, it's a myth!

If anyone ran a business, like some of you want to approach Climate Change & Peak Energy, then you would most likely be in the 50% of businesses that fail, in the first 12 months!  
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creep
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #48 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:08pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:36pm:
Skeptics seem to be focussed on fudging data to show that we can beltch out a few billion tonnes of c02 every year and it will have no effect.

Even the simpliest of minds, must wonder what is happening to that co2. Where is it going, and what is it doing.

It must be impossible to believe that we can continue to beltch out that much, exponentially increasing, ad infinitum, and not cause any changes ?

Even if you can convince yourself the world is not warming ( it is) but is the sea not getting more carbonic ?  Is sealife producing smaller shells ?, impacting the food chain. ?  Are the hundreds of other consequences not concerning you ?





Meanwhile the gullible gerties agree with the proved fudged figures from the scaremongering global warmists.
Like the famous Hockey stick which the global warmists lied and created the data to fool the gerties.
Oh and the hockey stick was the worst that the scaremongerers could conjure up, yet it is nothing to worry about when compared to our earlier history!





You know, when you are trying to convince the world of 'something' it is not a good idea not to lie about the data like the global warmist Michael Mann did.
If you're right about something then there's no need to fudge or conjure up the data or straight out lie like Michael Mann did.
And now that Michael Mann has been exposed for lieing about scientific data then whatever credibility he once had is now all gone.
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perceptions_now
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #49 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 9:18pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 6:50pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
I post this here, because it's relevant!

1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!


We, the current batch of humans, would have done whatever we could to prevent a catastrophe and we would have done so on the user pays principle. At least, we would not have completely postponed any costs, exclusively to future generations, so that we could continue to pander to our own immediate whims!

There is no denying that the costs of taking action now, would be significant and when combined with what is already happening relevant to -
1) Demographics - The Baby Boomer Bust.
2) Peak Energy.
3) Massive Global Debt overload.
those costs would most likely make the upcoming Depression, very long & even more painfull.
In relative GDP terms, if all countries chipped in now, then the cost could perhaps be at least 5% of GDP.

However, an overrider is that it must be an all in approach, if some of the larger Economies such as the USA, China, India, Europe and even Australia do not play ball fairly, then whatever is done is likely not to bear fruit and failure will have severe costs!  

b) Incorrect!

Then we will unnecessarily have exacerbated a Depression, into a severe Depression.

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!

Then we will unnecessarily have exacerbated a Depression, into a severe Depression.

b) Incorrect!

IF action does not start fairly soon on both Climate Change & Peak Energy, then the results would be -
* The entire Global Economy may vanish!
* A catastrophe, in human loss of life, on a Biblical scale!

The basic difference between the two approaches, is that if we accept there may be a Threat, then we will have simply followed good business practices and acted on the SWOT approach, which is simply a strategic planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in any project, Private business venture and Governments, at all levels.

We will have detected possible Threats, such as Climate Change & Peak Energy and done our Due Diligence, to see that future generations had a reasonable chance of living a life worth living.

In other words, we (collectively) will simply have done what good businesses, governments & individuals should do, every day and what most actually do.

We have assessed the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats, several significant Threats have appeared and we have treated them according to their priority. These threats, whilst some may say they are not overwhelming, nor perhaps even likely, they are of such a size, if they become reality, that we CAN NOT IGNORE THEM.

So, we do what good business pratice dictates, we look at insurance to cover the RISK of SYSTEMIC MELTDOWN, by getting everyone to pitch in a bit every year,  as preventative measures and we take all possible mitigation measures, to try to prevent the systemic meltdown of the Business/Government/Global Economy.    

The likely outcomes of two scenario's is the same, we simply make a bad scenario worse.

If we assume that Climate Change is real, it turns out to be real, we take proper Business Risk mitgation and everyone joins in, then humanity & the Economy, still has hope.

If we assume that Climate Change is NOT real,  but it turns out to be real, we continue with Business as usual and do nothing, then humanity & the Economy, losses all hope and we really are doomed.


And, here was me, thinking that some of those on the Conservative Right, who seem to think that Business is their domain, may have commented, on what are standard business practices?

But, it's just further proof that the myth of Economic infallibility that many Conservatives raise, is just that, it's a myth!

If anyone ran a business, like some of you want to approach Climate Change & Peak Energy, then you would most likely be in the 50% of businesses that fail, in the first 12 months!  


No comment from the Conservative "think" tankers - Maqqa, Cods, LW & associates.

I'll take that as confirmation that the Conservative/Liberal Economic managers myth, is dead & buried!!!
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creep
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #50 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 9:20pm
 
creep wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:08pm:
Meanwhile the gullible gerties agree with the proved fudged figures from the scaremongering global warmists.
Like the famous Hockey stick which the global warmists lied and created the data to fool the gerties.
Oh and the hockey stick was the worst that the scaremongerers could conjure up, yet it is nothing to worry about when compared to our earlier history!





You know, when you are trying to convince the world of 'something' it is not a good idea not to lie about the data like the global warmist Michael Mann did.
If you're right about something then there's no need to fudge or conjure up the data or straight out lie like Michael Mann did.
And now that Michael Mann has been exposed for lieing about scientific data then whatever credibility he once had is now all gone.

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gizmo_2655
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #51 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:49pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:20pm:
Both these graphs are highly misleading for anything over a few thousand years.   No data is reliable after that.  Thats basic science.

The problem with the misuse of scientific data is the they grab one bit of data from one source, ignore the error component, plonk it into excel and produce whatever they want.

Here they are trying to potray everything as absolutely normal, except they forgot to chop off the last few decades on the co2 graph.

World temperature has been rising. Perhaps they chopped that off the temp graph, or found one of the temp samples that bucked the trend. But across all samples, the world is warming.

Its very mischeivious for sham artists to misuse data like this, and then expect non-scientific review to be anywhere near accurate.  Climate scientists is an amazingly complex field. Anyone who has not worked in the field for a good couple of decades shouldnt be trying to draw their own conclusions.

I dont advice rocket scientists how to build rockets, and neither should you.



No, but perhaps you should find someone to help interpret graphs??

According to those ice core measurements (which the IPCC use), just over 120,000 years ago, the Co2 level was 100ppm LOWER than now, but the temperature was +/-3 degrees HIGHER than now...

This is hard data, checked AND in a peer-reviewed journal..
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It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #52 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:55pm
 
Sprintcyclist wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:47pm:


I love how proxy temperatures are fine when they think it supports their case but unreliable when it doesn't! Roll Eyes

But, the argument is bunk anyway:

...
Figure 1: Vostok ice core records for carbon dioxide concentration (Petit 2000) and temperature change (Barnola 2003).

...
Figure 2: The three main orbital variations. Eccentricity: changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit.Obliquity: changes in the tilt of the Earth’s rotational axis. Precession: wobbles in the Earth’s rotational axis.

Quote:
Over the last half million years, our climate has experienced long ice ages regularly punctuated by brief warm periods called interglacials. Atmospheric carbon dioxide closely matches the cycle, increasing by around 80 to 100 parts per million as Antarctic temperatures warm up to 10°C. However, when you look closer, CO2 actually lags temperature by around 1000 years. While this result was predicted two decades ago (Lorius 1990), it still surprises and confuses many. Does warming cause CO2 rise or the other way around? In actuality, the answer is both.

Interglacials come along approximately every 100,000 years. This is called the Milankovitch cycle, brought on by changes in the Earth's orbit. There are three main changes to the earth's orbit. The shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun (eccentricity) varies between an ellipse to a more circular shape. The earth's axis is tilted relative to the sun at around 23°. This tilt oscillates between 22.5° and 24.5° (obliquity). As the earth spins around it's axis, the axis wobbles from pointing towards the North Star to pointing at the star Vega (precession).

The combined effect of these orbital cycles cause long term changes in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth at different seasons, particularly at high latitudes. For example, around 18,000 years ago, there was an increase in the amount of sunlight hitting the Southern Hemisphere during the southern spring. This lead to retreating Antarctic sea ice and melting glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere.(Shemesh 2002). The ice loss had a positive feedback effect with less ice reflecting sunlight back into space (decreased albedo). This enhanced the warming.

As the Southern Ocean warms, the solubility of CO2 in water falls (Martin 2005). This causes the oceans to give up more CO2, emitting it into the atmosphere. The exact mechanism of how the deep ocean gives up its CO2 is not fully understood but believed to be related to vertical ocean mixing (Toggweiler 1999). The process takes around 800 to 1000 years, so CO2 levels are observed to rise around 1000 years after the initial warming (Monnin 2001, Mudelsee 2001).

The outgassing of CO2 from the ocean has several effects. The increased CO2 in the atmosphere amplifies the original warming. The relatively weak forcing from Milankovitch cycles is insufficient to cause the dramatic temperature change taking our climate out of an ice age (this period is called a deglaciation). However, the amplifying effect of CO2 is consistent with the observed warming.

CO2 from the Southern Ocean also mixes through the atmosphere, spreading the warming north (Cuffey 2001). Tropical marine sediments record warming in the tropics around 1000 years after Antarctic warming, around the same time as the CO2 rise (Stott 2007). Ice cores in Greenland find that warming in the Northern Hemisphere lags the Antarctic CO2 rise (Caillon 2003).

To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things:

  • Deglaciation is not initiated by CO2 but by orbital cycles
  • CO2 amplifies the warming which cannot be explained by orbital cycles alone
  • CO2 spreads warming throughout the planet
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Andrei.Hicks wrote on Sep 11th, 2011 at 11:23am:
So tell me, you'd like to see more and more craphouse coloured people in Australia right?&&Yeah good idea moron.&&
 
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creep
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #53 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:56pm
 
gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:49pm:
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 4:20pm:
Both these graphs are highly misleading for anything over a few thousand years.   No data is reliable after that.  Thats basic science.

The problem with the misuse of scientific data is the they grab one bit of data from one source, ignore the error component, plonk it into excel and produce whatever they want.

Here they are trying to potray everything as absolutely normal, except they forgot to chop off the last few decades on the co2 graph.

World temperature has been rising. Perhaps they chopped that off the temp graph, or found one of the temp samples that bucked the trend. But across all samples, the world is warming.

Its very mischeivious for sham artists to misuse data like this, and then expect non-scientific review to be anywhere near accurate.  Climate scientists is an amazingly complex field. Anyone who has not worked in the field for a good couple of decades shouldnt be trying to draw their own conclusions.

I dont advice rocket scientists how to build rockets, and neither should you.



No, but perhaps you should find someone to help interpret graphs??

According to those ice core measurements (which the IPCC use), just over 120,000 years ago, the Co2 level was 100ppm LOWER than now, but the temperature was +/-3 degrees HIGHER than now...

This is hard data, checked AND in a peer-reviewed journal..



You will also find that the global warmists will claim that the Arctic is melting due to global warming.
What the global warmists won't tell you is that the global warmists initially claimed that the Arctic was getting bigger due to global warming. They even had a model to prove it, but then the global warmists discovered that teh ARctic was actually melting, so the global warmists changed their model and viola that now proves that global warming is causing the Arctic to melt.

So let's apply that revised global warming model to the Antartic!

Also the global warmists won't tell you that the Antartic growing. And the Antartic is 2-3 times the size of the Arctic.
So the Arctic is shrinking but the Antartic is growing - both must be due to global warming!!!
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #54 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:59pm
 
Quote:
No comment from the Conservative "think" tankers - Maqqa, Cods, LW & associates.

I'll take that as confirmation that the Conservative/Liberal Economic managers myth, is dead & buried!!!


Perhaps PERCEPTION WE LIKE TO DEAL WITH GROUNDED REALITY OF TODAY, INSTEAD OF YOUR SCENARIOS OF IFS AND IFS AND MAYBES OF TOMORROW.
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gizmo_2655
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #55 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:59pm
 
philperth2010 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 5:03pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:23pm:
philperth2010 wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 7:35am:
Put simply, the crucial questions are very straight forward -
1) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on MY scenario that Climate Change is a reality and it turned out that my Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

b) The world would be better placed to provide sustainable energy supplies and would have moved to alternative fuels!!!

2) What are the likely costs, benefits & losses involved, IF humanity were to proceed on the scenario that Climate Change is NOT a reality and it turned out that Climate Change scenario was -
a) Correct!
b) Incorrect!


a) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!

b) The world would be struggling to provide sustainable energy supplies where alternative fuels would be expensive and hard to resource....Our planet would be in real trouble!!!


It makes no difference weather climate change is real or not.....fossil fuels are dwindling fast.....when supply becomes even more erratic the price will sky rocket.....We cannot afford to wait and hope cheap fuel will last forever!!!


Phil, that's a ridiculous response...
The planet would NOT 'be in real trouble' in the event of Q2a...
Nor for that matter, in Q2b.....
If (or rather when) fossil fuels 'run out' or run low, humanity will simply change to alternative energy sources....

Your responses to Q1 apply equally to Q2...

PN's original 'crucial questions' are in fact the very same question, reworded....


Simply change to alternative energy sources....that would be developed and manufactured by whom.....I think you have just confirmed the importance of a policy that provides initiatives to change to renewable energy......Doing nothing is not a solution!!!



I've never been against changing to renewable energy...

What I AM against is artificially increasing the prices of current energy sources to make renewables 'appear' more competitive( Carbon Tax), instead of developing the technology to actually make renewables cheaper..

And I'm against causing panic through 'horror' stories in the attempt to 'hurry' the changeover for political, idealogical, and financial reasons...to the detriment of economic and living standards... (Anthropogenic Climate Change)
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"I just get sick of people who place a label on someone else with their own definition.

It's similar to a strawman fallacy"
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #56 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 11:01pm
 
creep wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:56pm:
You will also find that the global warmists will claim that the Arctic is melting due to global warming.
What the global warmists won't tell you is that the global warmists initially claimed that the Arctic was getting bigger due to global warming. They even had a model to prove it, but then the global warmists discovered that teh ARctic was actually melting, so the global warmists changed their model and viola that now proves that global warming is causing the Arctic to melt.

So let's apply that revised global warming model to the Antartic!

Also the global warmists won't tell you that the Antartic growing. And the Antartic is 2-3 times the size of the Arctic.
So the Arctic is shrinking but the Antartic is growing - both must be due to global warming!!!


You spastic! You have confused the Arctic with the Antarctic, you numpty. The Arctic IS melting rapidly. And, while Antarctica isn't warming nearly as rapidly as the Arctic, it DOES appear to be losing ice mass in areas not predicted to do so for a number of decades yet. Climate models did predict such a warming but it is happening faster than ever predicted.

So, far from models being 'alarmist", they are proving again and again to have been far to conservative in their projections. There IS uncertainty and unluckily for us that uncertainty is ALL on the side of just how bad it will be, not whether it is happening or not.
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Andrei.Hicks wrote on Sep 11th, 2011 at 11:23am:
So tell me, you'd like to see more and more craphouse coloured people in Australia right?&&Yeah good idea moron.&&
 
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #57 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 11:03pm
 
So now the Arctic is melting rapidly!!!!
LOL

I guess it will all be gone by when? next week?
next month? next year?

But how come the Antartic is getting bigger in size?

Guess that side of our planet isn't exposed to global warming.

And to think that the global warmists tried to use their same model on the Antartic as they did on the Arctic....gee guess they have to change their model again!
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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #58 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 11:08pm
 
astro_surf wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 10:55pm:
Sprintcyclist wrote on Jun 2nd, 2011 at 2:47pm:


I love how proxy temperatures are fine when they think it supports their case but unreliable when it doesn't! Roll Eyes

But, the argument is bunk anyway:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Milankovitch_Cycles_400000.gif
Figure 1: Vostok ice core records for carbon dioxide concentration (Petit 2000) and temperature change (Barnola 2003).

http://www.skepticalscience.com/images/Milankovitch_Cycles.jpg
Figure 2: The three main orbital variations. Eccentricity: changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit.Obliquity: changes in the tilt of the Earth’s rotational axis. Precession: wobbles in the Earth’s rotational axis.

Quote:
Over the last half million years, our climate has experienced long ice ages regularly punctuated by brief warm periods called interglacials. Atmospheric carbon dioxide closely matches the cycle, increasing by around 80 to 100 parts per million as Antarctic temperatures warm up to 10°C. However, when you look closer, CO2 actually lags temperature by around 1000 years. While this result was predicted two decades ago (Lorius 1990), it still surprises and confuses many. Does warming cause CO2 rise or the other way around? In actuality, the answer is both.

Interglacials come along approximately every 100,000 years. This is called the Milankovitch cycle, brought on by changes in the Earth's orbit. There are three main changes to the earth's orbit. The shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun (eccentricity) varies between an ellipse to a more circular shape. The earth's axis is tilted relative to the sun at around 23°. This tilt oscillates between 22.5° and 24.5° (obliquity). As the earth spins around it's axis, the axis wobbles from pointing towards the North Star to pointing at the star Vega (precession).

The combined effect of these orbital cycles cause long term changes in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth at different seasons, particularly at high latitudes. For example, around 18,000 years ago, there was an increase in the amount of sunlight hitting the Southern Hemisphere during the southern spring. This lead to retreating Antarctic sea ice and melting glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere.(Shemesh 2002). The ice loss had a positive feedback effect with less ice reflecting sunlight back into space (decreased albedo). This enhanced the warming.

As the Southern Ocean warms, the solubility of CO2 in water falls (Martin 2005). This causes the oceans to give up more CO2, emitting it into the atmosphere. The exact mechanism of how the deep ocean gives up its CO2 is not fully understood but believed to be related to vertical ocean mixing (Toggweiler 1999). The process takes around 800 to 1000 years, so CO2 levels are observed to rise around 1000 years after the initial warming (Monnin 2001, Mudelsee 2001).

The outgassing of CO2 from the ocean has several effects. The increased CO2 in the atmosphere amplifies the original warming. The relatively weak forcing from Milankovitch cycles is insufficient to cause the dramatic temperature change taking our climate out of an ice age (this period is called a deglaciation). However, the amplifying effect of CO2 is consistent with the observed warming.

CO2 from the Southern Ocean also mixes through the atmosphere, spreading the warming north (Cuffey 2001). Tropical marine sediments record warming in the tropics around 1000 years after Antarctic warming, around the same time as the CO2 rise (Stott 2007). Ice cores in Greenland find that warming in the Northern Hemisphere lags the Antarctic CO2 rise (Caillon 2003).

To claim that the CO2 lag disproves the warming effect of CO2 displays a lack of understanding of the processes that drive Milankovitch cycles. A review of the peer reviewed research into past periods of deglaciation tells us several things:

  • Deglaciation is not initiated by CO2 but by orbital cycles
  • CO2 amplifies the warming which cannot be explained by orbital cycles alone
  • CO2 spreads warming throughout the planet


Good luck, with your scientific explanations, Astro!

I don't bother, as much these days, because it has become obvious that most peoples believe system is fixed and nothing short of a waking up one morning to the news that there is no ice on both polar caps, has any remote possibility of changing those set beliefs!

In fact, those that suggest they are diehard Conservative/Liberals, even refuse to believe standard business & pratices are also the proper course of action, just because Climate Change is involved.

The situation may not be irretrievable yet, but I don't see any of these idiots changing their mindsets, so the situation may well run for just a little too long and at some point, it will be too late.

Good luck & watch the Debt!

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creep
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Australian Politics

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Re: What's the Real truth?
Reply #59 - Jun 2nd, 2011 at 11:16pm
 
Here's one for the gerties



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