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Avoiding Climate Extremism (Read 32302 times)
Doctor Jolly
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #330 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:27pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 11:50am:
actually EVERY SINGLE climate model has failed the litmus test of retrospectivity. if a model is to be trusted it should be able to accurately reconstruct the past. If it cannot do this then its future predictions are unlikely to be accurate.



What a load of BS. Please stop peddling your lies.
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longweekend58
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #331 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:31pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:27pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 11:50am:
actually EVERY SINGLE climate model has failed the litmus test of retrospectivity. if a model is to be trusted it should be able to accurately reconstruct the past. If it cannot do this then its future predictions are unlikely to be accurate.



What a load of BS. Please stop peddling your lies.


Oh it's very true. Why do you think climate predictions are changing every other week? because the models change constantly.  this is the 'settled science' you talk about. ROFL!!!
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Doctor Jolly
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #332 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:32pm
 
cods wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 10:58am:
Read what you wrote wthout the blinkers. The EU are not afraid to keep going down this path. Fine. But keep in mind that it still DOESNT work and probably wont work without 3-4 times the imposts they currently have. That would be economic suicide but in case you havent noticed, the EU is commmitting slow economic suicide anyhow. If not for Germany and France and to a lesser extent UK, the EU would already be bacnkrupt from coast to coast instead of simply MOSTLY bankrupt.

the point of the post which you fail to understand is that Phase 1 with a carbon cost HIGHER than the one we wil have is already known to have been totally ineffective.  And so we push ahead to replicate a failed scheme. Why should I not call it ideologically-driven extremism? Would you prefer I call it utter foolishness? coz i wont cal it good policy when it has zero chance of sucess.  
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what I dont understand is our fixation with the EU.. UK.. Germany.... what does what they do have to do with us???... after all do they buy our COAL or our ORE?... n o they dont its CHINA that is the concumer of our minerals...even though they are evil and destroying the globe.

I would thinks its Brazil we should be concentrating on.. after all they are not shy about selling the evil money making minerals anymore that we are... so if we price ourselves out of this market.. ???????

now we have done the live cattle market in.???

we will only be exporting humans wont we?


Equating the European debt crisis with greenhouse schemes is beyond stupid.  I dont recall Iceland having a lot of solar roof top panels. ?
You should have twigged when you mentioned Germany as one of the strongest. One of the strongest economies and the one that has done the most to combat co2.

The European carbon price is actually working quite well now. Hitting targets as predicted, and most countries are moving to the next stage with more ambitious targets.


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Doctor Jolly
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #333 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:33pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:31pm:
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:27pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 11:50am:
actually EVERY SINGLE climate model has failed the litmus test of retrospectivity. if a model is to be trusted it should be able to accurately reconstruct the past. If it cannot do this then its future predictions are unlikely to be accurate.



What a load of BS. Please stop peddling your lies.


Oh it's very true. Why do you think climate predictions are changing every other week? because the models change constantly.  this is the 'settled science' you talk about. ROFL!!!


You are talking out your arse.  Show my some semblence of data to back your wild fantasy?  [From a reputable source of course, not some neo con blogger]

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longweekend58
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #334 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:35pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:32pm:
cods wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 10:58am:
Read what you wrote wthout the blinkers. The EU are not afraid to keep going down this path. Fine. But keep in mind that it still DOESNT work and probably wont work without 3-4 times the imposts they currently have. That would be economic suicide but in case you havent noticed, the EU is commmitting slow economic suicide anyhow. If not for Germany and France and to a lesser extent UK, the EU would already be bacnkrupt from coast to coast instead of simply MOSTLY bankrupt.

the point of the post which you fail to understand is that Phase 1 with a carbon cost HIGHER than the one we wil have is already known to have been totally ineffective.  And so we push ahead to replicate a failed scheme. Why should I not call it ideologically-driven extremism? Would you prefer I call it utter foolishness? coz i wont cal it good policy when it has zero chance of sucess.  
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what I dont understand is our fixation with the EU.. UK.. Germany.... what does what they do have to do with us???... after all do they buy our COAL or our ORE?... n o they dont its CHINA that is the concumer of our minerals...even though they are evil and destroying the globe.

I would thinks its Brazil we should be concentrating on.. after all they are not shy about selling the evil money making minerals anymore that we are... so if we price ourselves out of this market.. ???????

now we have done the live cattle market in.???

we will only be exporting humans wont we?


Equating the European debt crisis with greenhouse schemes is beyond stupid.  I dont recall Iceland having a lot of solar roof top panels. ?
You should have twigged when you mentioned Germany as one of the strongest. One of the strongest economies and the one that has done the most to combat co2.

The European carbon price is actually working quite well now. Hitting targets as predicted, and most countries are moving to the next stage with more ambitious targets.




not according to the EU itself. they admit that their phase one has had ZERO impact on emissions. and that is with an effectively carbon price ABOVE the one we wil likely have.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Doctor Jolly
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #335 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:37pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:35pm:
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:32pm:
cods wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 10:58am:
Read what you wrote wthout the blinkers. The EU are not afraid to keep going down this path. Fine. But keep in mind that it still DOESNT work and probably wont work without 3-4 times the imposts they currently have. That would be economic suicide but in case you havent noticed, the EU is commmitting slow economic suicide anyhow. If not for Germany and France and to a lesser extent UK, the EU would already be bacnkrupt from coast to coast instead of simply MOSTLY bankrupt.

the point of the post which you fail to understand is that Phase 1 with a carbon cost HIGHER than the one we wil have is already known to have been totally ineffective.  And so we push ahead to replicate a failed scheme. Why should I not call it ideologically-driven extremism? Would you prefer I call it utter foolishness? coz i wont cal it good policy when it has zero chance of sucess.  
Back to top    



what I dont understand is our fixation with the EU.. UK.. Germany.... what does what they do have to do with us???... after all do they buy our COAL or our ORE?... n o they dont its CHINA that is the concumer of our minerals...even though they are evil and destroying the globe.

I would thinks its Brazil we should be concentrating on.. after all they are not shy about selling the evil money making minerals anymore that we are... so if we price ourselves out of this market.. ???????

now we have done the live cattle market in.???

we will only be exporting humans wont we?


Equating the European debt crisis with greenhouse schemes is beyond stupid.  I dont recall Iceland having a lot of solar roof top panels. ?
You should have twigged when you mentioned Germany as one of the strongest. One of the strongest economies and the one that has done the most to combat co2.

The European carbon price is actually working quite well now. Hitting targets as predicted, and most countries are moving to the next stage with more ambitious targets.




not according to the EU itself. they admit that their phase one has had ZERO impact on emissions. and that is with an effectively carbon price ABOVE the one we wil likely have.



More BS. Stop peddling your lies.
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longweekend58
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #336 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:39pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:37pm:
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:35pm:
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:32pm:
cods wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 10:58am:
Read what you wrote wthout the blinkers. The EU are not afraid to keep going down this path. Fine. But keep in mind that it still DOESNT work and probably wont work without 3-4 times the imposts they currently have. That would be economic suicide but in case you havent noticed, the EU is commmitting slow economic suicide anyhow. If not for Germany and France and to a lesser extent UK, the EU would already be bacnkrupt from coast to coast instead of simply MOSTLY bankrupt.

the point of the post which you fail to understand is that Phase 1 with a carbon cost HIGHER than the one we wil have is already known to have been totally ineffective.  And so we push ahead to replicate a failed scheme. Why should I not call it ideologically-driven extremism? Would you prefer I call it utter foolishness? coz i wont cal it good policy when it has zero chance of sucess.  
Back to top    



what I dont understand is our fixation with the EU.. UK.. Germany.... what does what they do have to do with us???... after all do they buy our COAL or our ORE?... n o they dont its CHINA that is the concumer of our minerals...even though they are evil and destroying the globe.

I would thinks its Brazil we should be concentrating on.. after all they are not shy about selling the evil money making minerals anymore that we are... so if we price ourselves out of this market.. ???????

now we have done the live cattle market in.???

we will only be exporting humans wont we?


Equating the European debt crisis with greenhouse schemes is beyond stupid.  I dont recall Iceland having a lot of solar roof top panels. ?
You should have twigged when you mentioned Germany as one of the strongest. One of the strongest economies and the one that has done the most to combat co2.

The European carbon price is actually working quite well now. Hitting targets as predicted, and most countries are moving to the next stage with more ambitious targets.




not according to the EU itself. they admit that their phase one has had ZERO impact on emissions. and that is with an effectively carbon price ABOVE the one we wil likely have.



More BS. Stop peddling your lies.


that's the best you can do? you sound like skippy minues the gratuitous insults.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Doctor Jolly
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #337 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:40pm
 
Calling you out for being full of sh1t is not enough ?


You are following points 18 and 19 perfectly.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1307582609

**18). If your opponent has taken up a line of argument that will end in your defeat, you must not allow him or her to carry it to its conclusion. Interrupt the dispute, break it off altogether, or lead the opponent to a different subject.

**19). Should your opponent expressly challenge you to produce any objection to some definite point in his or her argument, and you have nothing much to say, try to make the argument less specific.
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longweekend58
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #338 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:55pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 12:40pm:
Calling you out for being full of sh1t is not enough ?


You are following points 18 and 19 perfectly.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1307582609

**18). If your opponent has taken up a line of argument that will end in your defeat, you must not allow him or her to carry it to its conclusion. Interrupt the dispute, break it off altogether, or lead the opponent to a different subject.

**19). Should your opponent expressly challenge you to produce any objection to some definite point in his or her argument, and you have nothing much to say, try to make the argument less specific.


hey toad... Im the one who wrote the OP and you havent even attempted to address the issues it raises.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #339 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 1:33pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 11:50am:
astro_surf wrote on Jun 9th, 2011 at 10:03pm:
progressiveslol wrote on Jun 9th, 2011 at 10:00pm:
Funny enough, just not on climate.

As for the CO2, history tells us they you are way off base as well.


Um, yes on climate. Climate models have been very successful, the only way they have been unsuccessful is by being too conservative and underestimating the rate of change.

And, no, history very much supports AGW. Please explain how the planet can warm from an ice age in the way that it does from the change in solar energy alone. Go on! I bet you can't! You knob jockey! Grin

Explain how the planet retains heat if not for greenhouse gasses? Explain how CO2 ISN'T a greenhouse gas? Grin


actually EVERY SINGLE climate model has failed the litmus test of retrospectivity. if a model is to be trusted it should be able to accurately reconstruct the past. If it cannot do this then its future predictions are unlikely to be accurate.




True, LW
The perfect example is the global warmists model for the Arctic, at first the global warmists were claiming that their model was accurate and predicted that the Arctic was growing.
Then they learnt that the Arctic was melting, so the global warmists dished that model and came out with a different model.
But they can't use that model to explain why Antartica is getting bigger!
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #340 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 1:44pm
 
Has anyone got a climate change model that has worked on predicting science.

I dont want one that can predict with accuracy on what happened in the past.
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longweekend58
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #341 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 3:34pm
 
progressiveslol wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 1:44pm:
Has anyone got a climate change model that has worked on predicting science.

I dont want one that can predict with accuracy on what happened in the past.


being able to 'predict' the past is the litmus test of a model where you can already know the correct answer.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #342 - Jun 10th, 2011 at 3:42pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 3:34pm:
progressiveslol wrote on Jun 10th, 2011 at 1:44pm:
Has anyone got a climate change model that has worked on predicting science.

I dont want one that can predict with accuracy on what happened in the past.


being able to 'predict' the past is the litmus test of a model where you can already know the correct answer.

Sounds similar to the neural network prediction programs iv'e written. Easy to train the network on past data but may do nothing for the future numbers. Put in the enormous complexities of climate and you would have too much noise.

Not saying climate models are the same but if all they can do is predict the past, then they are useless.
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #343 - Jun 11th, 2011 at 7:03am
 
After 25 years writing this column, I've had my first experience of an internet hate campaign. So far, more than 2400 people, nearly all American, have emailed me. More emails come every time I hit the send/receive button. About 5 per cent contain threats of violence. Even stranger, quite a few threaten me with sexual violence. They say, in various forms, that they want to rape me.

The only good news: quite a few don't seem to know the precise location of Sydney. Or Sidney, as some call it. ''You are so out of touch with America, I cannot believe you are published by an American paper,'' writes one emailer, having read the story on The Sydney Morning Herald website. Quite a few tell me I should be nervous if I ever try to leave Britain.

Here's how it started. Last week, in this spot, I wrote a piece about climate change. It was critical of both the left and the right and contained some comic hyperbole about both: that environmental zealots wanted us all to live in caves and that climate-change deniers should tattoo their beliefs on their bodies so they couldn't later deny their role in preventing action on climate change.
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So far, so hum-hum. On Saturday and Sunday, the piece never made it to the Herald's list of ''most read'' opinion pieces. I had nine emails - four of them saying they agreed, five against, but all expressed pleasantly. No one thought the piece was offensive or even that remarkable. The comic hyperbole was seen as, well, comic hyperbole.

Then - sometime Sunday night - a link to the piece was put on a right-wing website in the US, offering me up as another communist trying to ruin the world through the ''hoax'' of climate change. The piece started multiplying in cyberspace, mainly on websites dedicated to exposing the leftist conspiracy about climate change.

Suddenly I was the toast of town: about 300,000 people read the piece on smh.com.au between Sunday night and Tuesday morning. I had more readers than anyone else in the Herald. Only problem was: many of them wanted to kill me.

I'm not going to argue that Americans don't understand irony; American comic writing can be as sophisticated and sarcastic and subtle as that of any country.

On the other hand, one of the dangers of the web is that writing with an English or Australian sensibility can be placed in front of an audience with a different tradition. When I write about tying a climate denier to a post off Manly so he can be consumed by the ever-rising waves, it was clear to an Australian readership that the image was meant to be comic and absurd. Indeed, in the original piece I explicitly call the notion ''not ideal''.

Clear? I thought so - but not clear enough.

The Americans believed I was seriously proposing they be tattooed against their will. Given what they thought I was saying, I guess their upset was understandable.

And, boy, were they upset. TTB, from Nevada, said he had ''a couple of 9mm hollowpoints with your name on them''. Jonathan, of Sag Harbor, NY, wanted to remove my testicles, while DB wanted to remove my penis. And M. Glasgow, in an email sunnily titled ''can't wait to meet you'', observed that: ''I will kill you so dead that your rotting body will do nothing but energise the worms and maggots that will do their part in saving the planet from morons like you.''

Actually helping nature through my own death is a theme that energises much of the correspondence. JH, for example, suggests that since I like nature so much, I should donate my ''otherwise worthless body to the study of marine life by serving as shark bait''.

Actually, that did make me laugh.

Many use that phrase ''you f---ing commie bastard'', which seems charmingly retro. In others I'm a ''hardcore-Left ideologue and operative''. Stan, in Seattle, on the other hand, has me working for the British royal family: ''A whore working for the Queen's yellow green paper money''.

And a huge proportion mention Al Gore, who they believe is paying me. So, boss, I need to tell you: they hate you even more than they hate me.

Apparently Gore has bought a beach property (in some emails he's bought two, in others four), thus proving Gore doesn't believe his own lies. Quite a few accuse me (and him) of working for what they call ''the Jews'', and mention several big companies as having financed the hoax.

By quoting these strange theories, I'm not arguing that there are not debates to be had about global warming - particularly in terms of the best way to tackle it. From Monday onwards, another handful of emails came from Australians taking me to task - all expressed reasonably.

What wisdom have I drawn from the experience? Don't put an email address at the end of articles. Avoid travel in the near future to the American states of Arizona, Texas and Nevada.

And maybe, in a world of international publishing, learn to be clearer. The thing about tattoos was not meant to be taken as a serious suggestion. For those who took it as such, my apologies.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/a-climate-change-wave-of-hate-20110609-1ftix.html
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Re: Avoiding Climate Extremism
Reply #344 - Jun 11th, 2011 at 7:05am
 
AUSTRALIAN climate scientists have revealed details of the offensive emails they are routinely subjected to, amid concerns that the vitriolic campaign could deter the next generation of researchers.

The emails typically contain obscenities, insults and sexual slurs, with some including threats such as ''the quicker that c---s like you and your kind die, the better''.

The Australian Academy of Science condemned the attacks yesterday, saying researchers had a right to do their work free from abuse, acts of intimidation and threats of violence.

''We call on leaders across the community to make the same defence of intellectual freedom,'' the academy's president, Professor Suzanne Cory, said.

A climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, David Karoly, said he had been receiving abusive emails for more than two years, but the barrage intensified earlier this year.

He referred a threatening one which said ''Die you lying bastard'' to police in January and they identified the person who sent it.

No action was taken, however, because the police judged he was not at risk of immediate physical violence, Professor Karoly said.

As a result of harassment, he has increased his personal security, making his home phone number silent and removing the location of his office from websites.

While the hate mail was presumably intended to silence him, Professor Karoly said it made him only more determined to publicly discuss the latest scientific findings on climate change. ''The more they do it, the more they encourage me to feel as though this is an important time and the information presented is important.''

A marine scientist at the University of Queensland, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, said it was not unusual to get 10 to 20 libellous emails a day as part of a campaign that is widely targeted.

''It is clearly to unsettle people,'' he said.

Climate change researchers at the Australian National University have also been targeted for three years, resulting in nine academic and general staff being moved to more secure offices that require an access card.

The chief executive of the Australian Research Council, Margaret Sheil, said she was concerned the campaign of abuse of senior scientists could discourage students from becoming climate scientists if it continued.

''We don't need any more barriers keeping our best minds out of science,'' Professor Sheil said.

The intimidation has also been denounced this week by the government and groups including Universities Australia and the Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies.

Its chief executive, Anna-Maria Arabia, said deliberately divisive debate on climate change had gone too far and called on the leaders of all political parties to speak out and support climate scientists.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/academics-fear-climate-change-hate-mail-might-deter-future-researchers-20110610-1fx40.html
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