UP TO 100,000 jobs will be lost in Australia by the end of the year, with another 100,000 to go next year, economists have warned. This will take the unemployment rate from 5.1 per cent to 5.5 per cent by year end, and up to 6 per cent in 2012.   

While this rate is still considerably less than in the US (9.2 per cent), Britain (7.7 per cent) and Europe right now (6.1 per cent Germany, but 9.1 per cent France, 15 per cent Greece and 21 per cent in Spain), rising unemployment will further weigh on the Australian economy. It's one of the reasons some expect the Reserve Bank to start cutting interest rates soon - possibly as early as October.

Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Bank, says that this profit-reporting season shows many businesses are at a tipping point on employment.


''The major corporates who generally have a greater capacity to withstand cost pressures are now moving on jobs and it's also impacting broadly right through the economy,'' he says.   

''The current financial market turmoil means that companies that are doing OK and had been thinking about bringing in new workers will put the brakes on that; while in the retail sector, where they have been hanging on by their fingernails waiting for a good Christmas, they are starting to realise it's not going to happen, and we could see a steady loss of labour there.''

The profit reporting season has already delivered a slew of job-cut announcements. This has been an additional negative in a generally average profit reporting season, says AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver. He has calculated that 30 per cent of the profit results have exceeded expectations, against the usual 45 per cent, while 30 per cent have underperformed, against the usual 24 per cent.

There has been news of more than 1000 jobs to go at both Qantas and Westpac and 400 at OneSteel, with a similar number expected from rival steelmaker BlueScope when it delivers its profits tomorrow. Substantial job losses are expected at a range of other companies, including Telstra, SingTel, Ten Network, Coca-Cola, GWA and Boral. 

There have also been sizeable job losses recently at Colorado, Heinz and Shell, and some speculation that job losses may be looming at Suncorp.   

The future of the retail sector, the country's largest industry employer with 1.2 million workers or about 11 per cent of the workforce, is also in danger. Retailers have been struggling for nearly two years but so far overall employment has held up. AMP Capital's Dr Oliver doubts this can last.

''We're heading into a difficult period in the jobs market. Companies have been hiding people, waiting for the economy to pick up, but it just hasn't changed, and the economic turmoil is now encouraging them to lay these people off.   

''How severe the shedding of labour in the economy will be over the coming months will depend on how quickly the RBA acts - if they move quickly, the damage will be limited.'' He expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates as a result, possibly as early as October.

Margy Osmond, chief executive of retail industry body Australian National Retailers Association, is also expecting job losses among smaller retailers.   

''My gut feeling is that we are going to see some jobs leakage at the small end of the retail market but that the retail majors will try and hang on,'' she says. ''We are going to see a reduction in hours there, but they won't want to lose their experienced staff - that's how they have coped in the past.''

Deutsche Bank senior economist Phil O'Donaghoe is more positive about jobs. He expects additional jobs created in the resources sector and its service industries to offset job losses elsewhere, for the next few months at least. ''We are expecting employment growth to continue to be moderately positive - at 5000 to 10,000 jobs a month for the next three months.

''But things are changing rapidly offshore at the moment and that will affect business employment decisions later in the year in Australia,'' he says.   

''On the positive side, the RBA still has its interest rate policy lever to use, so if unemployment starts to tick towards 7 or 8 per cent, we expect it to respond.''

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/jobs-under-pressure-20110820-1j3ls.html#ixzz1Vbfz68Wx

I'd be surprised if it ever gets over the 5% mark even if half the country is unemployed  fudging the stats   

The only way that we know it's getting higher is by the new penalties they introduce to ensure the unemployed feel ostracised.

Another sure sign (regional - not the city) is when the streets are overcrowded during the day, like we know when school's out kids everywhere.

Let us not forget also, didn't Mr Hockey let the cat out of the bag?.  When he said the liberals would get rid of around 12,000 public servants.  That does seem not a bad start.   

Build more Centrelink offices.   

Baronvonrort wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2011 at 8:17am:



Not the pen-pushers and paper-shufflers.

But, I daresay you'd soon start missing police, firies, nurses etc.

More than 100,000 could be jobless soon as Australian economy slows

MORE than 50,000 jobs are expected to be lost as the economy slows in the next nine months, with some experts tipping the loss of as many as 100,000.

The strong rise in unemployment will increase pressure on the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates to offer relief to householders and stimulate the non-mining sector of the economy

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/over-100000-could-join-unemployed-ranks/story-e6frfmci-1226120070199#ixzz1VmvmS76k

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100,000 more bludgers. Why don't they get a job?



It's ok, I'm only making fun of the rightard mentality.

100,000 more living below the poverty line 

At least when it gets to a million they might start to rebel.....I live in hope.


Read more:

http://www.news.com.au/money/over-100000-could-join-unemployed-ranks/story-e6frf...

Plenty of work in the military too