Well, once again it is the time of year when political analysts look into their crystal balls and make predictions for the coming year based on their intimate knowledge of the people and the process.

And get it totally wrong.

Politics is often unpredictable beyond today and perhaps tomorrow, but that doesn’t stop us trying to make our own efforts at prognostication and with those comments in mind, here come my enlightened efforts.

Just as 2012 will not see the end of the world, I agree with John Howard’s assessment that the Gillard Government will survive the year intact. That said, there are some very real danger signs around that could still send this fragile government to an early execution. The Craig Thomson affair could still blow up and the extraordinarily slow investigations into his all-too-obvious misdeeds might finally have a result leading to criminal prosecution. And the new Speaker of the House may have bought Gillard an extra vote for now, but his poor reputation and dubious ability may bring the same kind of tantrums and craziness that Peter Lewis inflicted on the SA parliament earlier this century. With Wilkie sidelined by the Slipper episode and his proposed pokie laws unlikely to ever see the light of day, how will he respond? My crystal ball predicts a short-lived tantrum followed by a long-drawn out case of RDS (Relevance Deprivation Syndrome). Labor won’t need his vote and the Liberals won’t buy it.

The NBN will continue to fall behind schedule just as has done since its very first day of operation. Despite the protestations from the government and NBN Corp itself, it has fallen well behind every single one of its own milestones. The real risk is that the project is so big and the scope so vast that it will take twice as long and cost three times as much as promised. Opera House, anyone?

Rob Oakeshott will continue to believe he can be re-elected while still unsure why so many people dislike him. Some things never change and some people never learn.

The Opposition Leader with the greatest amount of media access since Federation will finally discover the potentially toxic flip-side to this rare phenomenon - people are actually listening to him. While called ‘Dr No’ by those without any appreciation of political history or the fact that Oppositions have all blocked government legislation, Tony Abbott will need to counter this damaging perception with some positive policies. He has been the most successful Opposition Leader ever, taking the coalition from a killing field to leading by the highest margin ever. But his personal popularity is poor and only salvaged by a Prime Minister disliked by almost everyone. His position is assured by virtue of his massive electoral lead, but his often negative approach will take the edge off what could otherwise be a monstrous margin. The Coalition lacks a John Howard whose political savvy and common touch could take the current hatred of the ALP and turn it into a bloodbath.

On that note, it is a pretty safe bet to predict that the Gillard Government’s polls will remain in the cellar. It is in fact probably the only safe bet of the year. For that to change would require the entire Coalition Front Bench to be charged with serious crimes and for the Gillard Government to get a major policy implemented competently. Suffice to say that neither is very likely.
The Carbon Tax will be implemented.  Life will go on and industry will not die. However, just like WorkChoices did not harm anyone personally and yet destroyed John Howard and his Government, the unwanted and much maligned tax will ensure the Government’s defeat - in 2013.

Kevin Rudd will make a leadership challenge - and fail. With Julia Gillard leading the ALP to a Whitlamesque annihilation, many in the ALP already believe their only hope of salvation is in Kevin Rudd returning to the Lodge. It is a sound strategy supported by polls that tip a significant boost  if Rudd were to resume the Leadership, but it will fail and the fallout will be yet another large swathe of Labor supporters parking their votes with Tony Abbott’s Coalition.

Newly elected Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon will revert to form - she is a former Communist - and destabilise the Greens. With Green preferences being  the only way that half the current Labor Caucus are elected, a collapse in Green votes would be catastrophic for the ALP. With Bob Brown retiring at the next election, the leadership vacuum will become very obvious in 2012. If Lee Rhiannon has her way and she begins her anti-semitic tirade in the Senate then the Federal Greens could experience similar disasters as they did in the NSW election of March 2011. In only a couple of months the BDS policy of the Greens lopped a full 7% from their polls. A similar result federally could see the Greens reduced to just one or two senators and no MPs and being well on their way to a Democrats-like end.

Joe Hockey will learn something about economics just in time for Abbott to recognise the inevitable and promote the highly capable Malcolm Turnball to the number two position.

And while I am on Turnball predictions, I see him retaining his Keating -like petulance in always wanting his own way. Unlike Keating however, that petulance will continue to deny him the top spot. Petulant arrogance is only tolerated if you win.

Economically, the country is going to suffer. Hardly news really. While the Greeks continue to stumble with the concepts of work and paying taxes and the Italians still don’t realise that electing porn stars and buffoons hasn’t worked out all that well, the European slow-train wreck will finally derail and push the world into yet another deep recession. Our own economy is nowhere near as well placed as it was in 2008 and so this one will hurt.  I predict a small rise in unemployment and a ballooning federal debt.

The oft-promised surplus will not appear.

Well, that’s enough from me.  I will revisit this in twelve months time and then make a long-winded excuse for my many failed predictions. But there is one prediction that is solid-gold:

“There will be no carbon tax in any government I lead” will haunt and finally destroy the Gillard Government.

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 5^th, 2012 at 9:56am:




if you really want my vote.//. HUGE JACKMAN

Australia desperately needs a Ron Paul to vote for. The current batch of politicians on both sides, would have be the biggest pathetic bunch of losers this Nation has ever had the misfortune to produce.

If we the people don’t quickly start demanding more referendums on important issues and start taking back power that politicians underhandedly gave themselves, then we, your children and grandchildren are going to be in very big trouble.

Why the hell should we the tax payers be paying the salaries of the “opposition politicians” in Federal and State Governments & all their staff to do nothing more than sit around in Parliament and ask the Government in power bloody questions.

Besides asking questions and pointing out Government failures, what else is the opposition politicians getting $150K salaries to do?  They have NO effective power in either the upper or lower house, so what are they doing for their $150k salaries besides asking the same boring questions and pointing out the same boring Government failures?

Quote:

Gillard will slowly rise in the polls, and Abbott will continue his slow fall.
By the end of 2012 both parties will be close to each other (within 2 points) on 2PP.

I doubt either leader will be challenged in 2012.  In fact, I suspect a fairly quite year as the policy changes of 2011 kick in.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5^th, 2012 at 10:38am:


No, Currently the labor party creates a policy which is essentially centre-left.  To get it through parliment they have to compromise that policy to get enough votes. They can compromise to the Greens, to independents, or the liberal party.   The liberal party being the most mainstream of that bunch would seem the best outcome for Australia.  But Tony says "No".

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 5^th, 2012 at 10:38am:



I think the media "break" more stories and hold the serving Government to more accountable than any opposition I'm aware of past or present. 

Maybe you could give just a few examples of how both opposition Education, Defense, Communications Liberal & Labor ministers just to name a few; have directly made each other accountable when they have been in opposition - that's been a media worthy besides the NBN?