Quote:Be careful what you wish for
Amanda Vanstone
March 19, 2012
Opinion
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Why is it we so quickly forget how quickly things change in politics? When the polls look good for an opposition, their members can become euphoric. That they could be blinded by the short-term positive and fall into complacency shows how little notice we take of history.
In 1998, after John Howard's annus horribilis, Labor MPs were measuring up the ministerial offices and arguing over who would get what after what they thought would be their inevitable victory. They forgot how fast things can change. Counting the spoils of office before an election is never smart.
The man they liked to call "little Johnny" (who in fact was taller than Bob Hawke) went on to trounce Labor at the polls that year. And a few more times after that.
Similarly it can be hard to persuade troops within a government that bad polling today does not mean all is lost. Governments are perennially unpopular during their terms of office; being in government means taking the flak for everything that goes wrong.
Marginal-seat holders can get very tense and lose their objectivity. A deputation of 20 in their electorate office can put panic into the hearts of an MP who won by only a few hundred votes. Such small majorities concentrate the mind.
But when an election comes around, governments have natural advantages. They can pump-prime the electorate with good things and exploit the credibility that goes with being in office. Good leaders never lose heart.
Howard was always very good at rallying the troops. Whenever there was a bad poll for Labor and overconfidence looked like creeping in to Coalition ranks, or when restless troops wanted to break out, he would give everyone a wake-up call. It was compelling stuff, when a man people had written off as unelectable reminded his own party room that no one was unelectable and that you underestimated your opponent to your peril.
There is a risk now for the Abbott opposition. The Gillard government is in a shemozzle and the Prime Minister just cannot persuade voters to trust her. Almost no one thinks Labor can win the next election.
But I can remember many times between entering Parliament in 1985 and winning office in 1996 when the Labor government looked set to fall. And didn't. And I remember being in government and everyone thinking we would lose — and we didn't.
Right now, Australians are not happy with their politicians.
I hear both Liberal and Labor friends saying of Gillard: "She cannot win. Nobody likes her — look at her polling." The trouble with this argument is that while Abbott is more popular, he is not much more popular. Voters do not warm to either of them. This is a worrying position for Abbott.
If Bob Carr's ascendancy to the Senate changes the game, Labor's popularity could improve. The government only needs to be within striking distance of the Coalition at the start of the election campaign. Then, just one undisciplined slip-up by the opposition could hand Labor the election. Oppositions who peak too early lose.
A contributing factor to Labor's difficulties is the uncertainty of minority government. One interpretation of how we ended up in this position is that many people just didn't want either Julia or Tony. Certainly, an increasing number of people can be heard saying, "a pox on both their houses". My worst nightmare is that this line of thinking continues and more, not fewer, people vote for independents at the next election.
Australia needs stable and strong government. Minority government means the opposite.
Still, the government is showing no signs of wanting to call an election. When a female PM from the Labor movement refuses to stand up for low-income health workers whose money has been misused by somebody to use women as prostitutes, it is pretty clear power is not going to be thrown away.
That is why Abbott will not and should not be taunted into putting all his policy cards on the table now. Why give Labor something to steal, attack or discredit? Better to leave the ALP lying in the bed it made.
Abbott calls regularly for this whole mess to be brought to an end. He is relentless in promoting the idea that we need an election. Giving Australians the chance to say whether they want to continue with this shemozzle seems a good idea. But "be careful what you wish for" is a timely adage.
Being in opposition is child's play compared with being in government. Government runs 24/7; it is enormous. Mistakes when they inevitably happen can be hard to chase down. You wanted the job of dealing with the issues as they arose and there they are on your doorstep every morning, in your head every night.
Does Abbott feel ready for this? He knows what it is like and has shown a work ethic that will easily handle government a second time around. But what about his team? Are they all up at the crack of dawn and on the job? If they are not, he should change them around.
He should ask himself two questions.
First, have I got the best people in my team and in the right jobs? Surely we could not consider a Liberal government without new senator Arthur Sinodinos in the ministry? Is Malcolm Turnbull being used to his fullest capacity? If not, does that reflect a weakness on Abbott's part? And sadly, there are a few "shadows" who, to steal a phrase, don't cast one.
Second, his team has had some difficulty avoiding slip-ups and singing the same tune. If this isn't the time for a reshuffle, when will Abbott tighten up his team? If you can't control it now, it won't be any easier in government
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-20120318-1vdjt.html#ixzz1pWozezZW
This from a Liberal insider, pity the hacks here don't have her insight.
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