Michelle Grattan. June 4, 2012.
LABOR'S primary vote has fallen to a parlous 26 per cent - equal to its record low of last July - in an Age/Nielsen poll that also shows Tony Abbott's personal disapproval rising by 5 points to an all time high.
In a result that will depress Labor MPs and renew speculation about Julia Gillard's leadership, the May federal budget has so far failed to boost the government's fortunes with voters.
On a two-party basis, Labor trails 43 per cent - up 1 point in three weeks - to the Coalition's 57 per cent, down one.
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Taking this and the previous poll together, the government's budget cash splash has had no discernible impact, although the money is only starting to go out, with the Schoolkids Bonus to be paid later this month.
The poll comes after a parliamentary fortnight in which Labor was embarrassed by internal divisions over allowing Gina Rinehart to hire foreign workers, and Mr Abbott's unpopularity became a talking point.
The Labor primary vote is down 2 points. If an election were held now, on these figures it would be a wipeout for the government with a swing of about 7 per cent against it.
Voters continue to want Kevin Rudd back: 62 per cent prefer him as ALP leader compared with 32 per cent for Ms Gillard. Just over half (52 per cent) say Labor should change leaders; 45 per cent say it should stay with Ms Gillard.
But voters are also discontent with the leadership on the other side, with 61 per cent saying they would prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader to Mr Abbott's 34 per cent. Coalition supporters are evenly split between the two, while Labor supporters overwhelmingly prefer Mr Turnbull.
Mr Abbott's approval rating is down 5 points to 39 per cent, equalling his personal record low. With his disapproval now at 57 per cent, his net approval is at a personal record low of minus 18, indicating Labor's attacks on him have had some effect. Ms Gillard has narrowed the gap as preferred PM: Mr Abbott leads 46 (down 4) to her 44 (up 2).
Despite criticism of Mr Abbott for his relentless pursuit of Craig Thomson, public opinion is on the Coalition's side, with 37 per cent saying the opposition's response has been reasonable, and 16 per cent saying it has not gone far enough.
Labor MPs were heartened last week when the ALP primary vote rose to 32 per cent in a Newspoll. But of seven post-budget polls from four pollsters, the ALP has been on 30 per cent or below in five of them.
In the Age poll, the Coalition primary vote is down 1 point to 48 per cent, while the Greens are up 2 to 14 per cent.
Ms Gillard's approval has risen a point to 36 per cent and her disapproval is steady on 60.
Ms Gillard is preferred as ALP leader compared with Mr Rudd among Labor voters (53-45 per cent) but Mr Rudd is overwhelmingly the choice of Coalition supporters 71-19 per cent).
Two-thirds of Labor voters think the party should stick with Ms Gillard, and one-third back change, although there has been a 4-point lift in those advocating a switch of leaders.
The national poll of 1400 people was taken from Thursday to Saturday.
Pollster John Stirton said: "Labor has yet to receive a boost from the budget and has been in the doldrums since the Queensland election.
''Its best hope is that the experience of the carbon tax, like the GST just over a decade ago, proves to be not as bad as many voters fear.
''Labor's second best hope is that voters will see Tony Abbott as too risky, as they did with Mark Latham eight years ago."
The leader of the House, Anthony Albanese, said yesterday that Mr Abbott was unfit to be prime minister, lacking the right temperament for the job.
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