Australian Politics Forum - 61% of voters want Turnbull.

skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull. Reply #30 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:16pm The longer the Libs ignore 61% of voters want Turnbull and not Abbott the longer Labor are in the game. If I were Labor i'd hold on until a month before an election, dump Gillard for the people's choice and watch the libs lose the unlosable election. Though I doubt Labor are that smart.
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john_g

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #31 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:17pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:05pm:

john_g wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:02pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:58am:

skippy. wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:56am:

john_g wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:53am:

skippy. wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:50am:

Quote:

Given Turnbull's pro-carbon tax stance there's no way he will be back in. It will give Labor a platform to launch their next election.

Never say he wont be back. If Gillard is dumped, and I think she will be, so will Abbott be. Because no matter what spin you put on it, Rudd will beat Abbott,and the Libs know it. Turnbull will be the Libs only choice, IF they want government. Abbott NEVER beat Rudd as preferred PM and the Libs were NEVER ahead on TPP under Rudd, thems the facts.

Technically, that's not true, skip. Before the leadership challenge earlier in the year, there were two polls conducted; one for if Gillard stayed, the other for if Rudd were re-instated. The first had the Coalition leading 54-46, the second a much closer 51-49.

I don't think that Labor can win, irrespective of leader or anything else, unless they repeal the carbon tax. A change of leader, particularly Rudd, however, could/would make it much closer.

That poll you mention was a HYPOTHETICAL, in ALL the polls while Rudd was leader he NEVER lost a preferred PM or TPP.

Rudd was dumped when his polls were heading south.

The thing was skippy that I would argue a different PM would still be there.
Problem was that Rudd was so disliked inside of his own party, that he only needed a hint of polling drop and they were all over him to cut him loose and settle some scores.

Gillard's polling has been beyond atrocious but because she is popular within her party (but she struggles massively to translate to the populace) she holds on.

Rudd is the better option for me than Gillard and Abbott but that choice is unpalatable to many inside of the ALP.

Which would you prefer, though, Andrei?:

Scenario 1 - Rudd/ALP - with carbon tax.
Scenario 2 - Abbott/LNP - without carbon tax.

I do find it weird how Gillard is so popular with the party, and so loathed by the people, and Rudd is exactly the opposite.

Ideally it would be Turnbull/LNP - without the carbon tax.

But we know Turnbull's stance on the ETS so it ain't gunna happen.

I think Hockey will emerge as the other candidate

So, what's your order, Maqqa? I always thought that you were an Abbott fan, but this suggests otherwise.

For me, it's Turnbull>Abbott>Hockey.

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Gist

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #32 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:18pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:10pm:

He was already dysfunctional - sandwiches, hair drier etc

All of which could be forgiven as long as things were basically hanging together in big picture terms. Towards the end though, they weren't.

The entire caucus has said pretty clearly that they don't want to go back to that - it was a record vote against Rudd just a few months ago. I think anyone trumpeting a return of the Ruddster is either projecting their own desires or just plain ignorant of the facts.

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john_g

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #33 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:19pm

skippy. wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:16pm:

The longer the Libs ignore 61% of voters want Turnbull and not Abbott the longer Labor are in the game. If I were Labor i'd hold on until a month before an election, dump Gillard for the people's choice and watch the libs lose the unlosable election. Though I doubt Labor are that smart.

What about the carbon tax? Do you think that Labor have any chance while it's still there? I certainly don't.

I remember when Abbott became leader in late 2009. A lot of people were saying that it didn't matter what Labor does, the Coalition had no chance while he was there, irrespective of who led Labor, as well.

57-43 says otherwise.

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Gist Gold Member Offline I am not a sock, I am a human being! Posts: 5476	Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull. Reply #34 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:21pm john_g wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:17pm: For me, it's Turnbull>Abbott>Hockey. Turnbull>Hockey>? I'd have to give that last one some thought. Forget Abbott. The only thing he'd be preferable to would be fresh dog vomit and even then I'd have to think carefully.
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Dsmithy70

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #35 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:21pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

I wonder how many of the 61% are Labor voters hoping Turnbull comeback in to save Gillard?

Ask And ye shall receive

Quote:

Mr Turnbull remains more popular than Mr Abbott among Labor and Greens voters by a ratio of four to one.

But there is now no difference among Coalition voters, who used to favour Mr Abbott. The poll shows 49 per cent prefer Mr Turnbull and 50 per cent Mr Abbott.

Did you see those 4 words,

who used to favour Mr Abbott

Seem most Libs are waking up to the fact you cant govern with shallow slogans.

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Andrei.Hicks

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #36 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:23pm

Gist wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:18pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:10pm:

He was already dysfunctional - sandwiches, hair drier etc

All of which could be forgiven as long as things were basically hanging together in big picture terms. Towards the end though, they weren't.

The entire caucus has said pretty clearly that they don't want to go back to that - it was a record vote against Rudd just a few months ago. I think anyone trumpeting a return of the Ruddster is either projecting their own desires or just plain ignorant of the facts.

Or aware of the fact he is by far their best chance of pulling off a miraculous comeback win.

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PoliticalReality

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #37 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:27pm

john_g wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:43am:

Yes, sure do. As I have said time and again, I will most likely be donkey voting at the next election. There's no way I'm voting Green or Labor, but I don't see myself voting for an Abbott-led Coalition, either. A shame, because I always really valued my vote.

Put Turnbull there, and the Libs will be getting my vote, 100%.

You do know that by donkey voting you're still voting for somebody, you'd be better off voting informally

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Gist

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #38 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 1:15pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:23pm:

Or aware of the fact he is by far their best chance of pulling off a miraculous comeback win.

Which is simply another way of saying they are projecting their own desires for a win. It in no way changes the fact that the caucus are the only ones to elect the leader and they comprehensively rejected him.

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adelcrow

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #39 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 1:31pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:23pm:

Gist wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:18pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:10pm:

He was already dysfunctional - sandwiches, hair drier etc

All of which could be forgiven as long as things were basically hanging together in big picture terms. Towards the end though, they weren't.

The entire caucus has said pretty clearly that they don't want to go back to that - it was a record vote against Rudd just a few months ago. I think anyone trumpeting a return of the Ruddster is either projecting their own desires or just plain ignorant of the facts.

Or aware of the fact he is by far their best chance of pulling off a miraculous comeback win.

We'll know by this time next year after the carbon price has had 12 mths to bed down.
I wouldnt be trying to predict the election outcome until then.

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Andrei.Hicks

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #40 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 1:40pm

adelcrow wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 1:31pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:23pm:

Gist wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:18pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:10pm:

He was already dysfunctional - sandwiches, hair drier etc

All of which could be forgiven as long as things were basically hanging together in big picture terms. Towards the end though, they weren't.

The entire caucus has said pretty clearly that they don't want to go back to that - it was a record vote against Rudd just a few months ago. I think anyone trumpeting a return of the Ruddster is either projecting their own desires or just plain ignorant of the facts.

Or aware of the fact he is by far their best chance of pulling off a miraculous comeback win.

We'll know by this time next year after the carbon price has had 12 mths to bed down.
I wouldnt be trying to predict the election outcome until then.

People's bills will rise and the economy looks like tanking.
The Labor brand is stuck on 26%-30% for the best part of a year.

If I was the ALP I wouldn't go ordering party hats.

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Sir Spot of Borg

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #41 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 1:49pm

Actually I have watched a bit of QT lately and I dont see what the problem is with gillard. Yeah she lied but they ALL lie. You arent going to find one that doesnt lie. Apart from that she seems to know pretty much what she is doing. Shes trying to get her message across through QT because the media is anti-her but tony is so bad that he is doing it for her.

Of course she is not "left" thats for sure. And she is nothing like the labour of old. Heck she is carrying on howards policies. Thats not good but why would you take abbott over her when he is even worse i cant imagine. We need to dump them all and get a whole new batch to choose from. Get some real difference between the parties.

SOB

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Maqqa Gold Member Offline 14% - that low?! Posts: 16000	Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull. Reply #42 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 4:30pm Sir Spot of Borg wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 1:49pm: Actually I have watched a bit of QT lately and I dont see what the problem is with gillard. Yeah she lied but they ALL lie. SOB By saying this you are assuming all lies should be judged the same?
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Maqqa

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #43 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 4:31pm

Dsmithy70 wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 12:21pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

I wonder how many of the 61% are Labor voters hoping Turnbull comeback in to save Gillard?

Ask And ye shall receive

Quote:

Mr Turnbull remains more popular than Mr Abbott among Labor and Greens voters by a ratio of four to one.

But there is now no difference among Coalition voters, who used to favour Mr Abbott. The poll shows 49 per cent prefer Mr Turnbull and 50 per cent Mr Abbott.

Did you see those 4 words,

who used to favour Mr Abbott

Seem most Libs are waking up to the fact you cant govern with shallow slogans.

Yes but the TPP is still bad for Labor despite what you say

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Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number

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Sir Spot of Borg

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Re: 61% of voters want Turnbull.
Reply #44 - Jun 4^th, 2012 at 4:31pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 4^th, 2012 at 4:30pm: