Dnarever wrote on Jun 10
th, 2012 at 7:31pm:
Any common sense look at the prospect of removing this legislation would have to conclude it very unlikely for a number of very good reasons.
It would be very difficult to remove structurally without control of both houses of parliament which looks to be unlikely.
The prospect of a DD election I would think equally unlikely, the time model shows the earliest possible would be mid 2014 but late 2014 more probable and early 2015 by far the most likely. Up to almost 3 years after the fixed price is implemented before the first step of legislation could be passed.
Would Tnoy go to a DD in 2015? The probability is no way jose.
By 2015 with the fixed price in play for 3 years and no longer the prospect of fear and smear having an impact and obviously the world still on its axis the prospect of significant emotional support is very low.
It looks at this time like the Liberals may expect a huge sweeping victory in 2013 given 15 months of elector discontent with the liberals the likelihood of them risking seats on a DD I would think to be not even a remote possibility where they would know up front they were going to lose seats. A bounce back would be an almost certainty.
Then as has been discussed there is the huge problem about how to do it, where all we see is huge financial black holes in costing for no benefit. Will they go to a DD with an un-costed policy which is unaffordable will hurt people and still leave the carbon problem to be dealt with and paid for?
Are the Liberals that stupid? Well I'm not real sure but I hope so.
Lets assume what you say is correct - this can only benefit the LIBs
Right now 63% reject the carbon tax and 57% wants it repealed.
Therefore Abbott can take as long as he wants
Labor was very patience on the Thomson investigation - and that took 4 years.
So if the repeal takes 4 years - so be it!
Labor's Carbon Tax is the LIBs' Workchoices.
The LIBs stuck by Workchoices right up to the election results in 2007 so I don't expect Labor to be any different
But I can't see Labor being that stupid to hang onto the Carbon Tax if it's hit by 57/43 TPP results
Lefties claimed a whitewash in 2007 when he won by 53/47
If Labor lose by 57/43 - any sane Labor MP who survived the slaughter would be stupid to hang onto the Carbon Tax