Australian Politics Forum - Abbott days are numbered

Phallic Baldwin

Senior Member

Offline

Phallic Baldwin

Posts: 370
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #30 - Jun 14^th, 2012 at 10:03pm

Sir Spot of Borg wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 3:12pm:

Quote:

The ALP is just so bad at selling their policies, it’s the main reason no no Abbott is still in the race.

Well since the media is all abbott abbott abbott and trashing her its a bit hard. She doesnt get much airtime.

This reminds me of something I found funny - I heard her on the radio last week on 2DayFM in the morning. Because everyone knows that the best political coverage comes from the Kyle and Jackie O show Grin

Back to top

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #31 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

Dsmithy70

Gold Member

Offline

ire futuis vobismetipsis

Posts: 13147
Newy
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #32 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:11am

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

I think the quote is
"Voters were waiting with baseball bats"
How you can claim Howard was less popular than Keating is beyond comprehension & points to delusion/fear starting to niggle.

BTW you said Howard was in Government in 96 2 days ago so what is it?

Back to top

REBELLION is not what most people think it is.
REBELLION is when you turn off the TV & start educating & thinking for yourself.
Gavin Nascimento

IP Logged

Gist

Gold Member

Offline

I am not a sock, I am
a human being!

Posts: 5476

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #33 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:51am

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

Read the highlighted bit over and over and eventually it'll begin to dawn on you. You're best not to say anything more until then.

Back to top

"When our military goes to war it should be for purposes and objectives clearly in Australia’s interests, not merely because the Americans want some company" - Malcolm Fraser (2012 Whitlam Oration)

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #34 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:12am

Dsmithy70 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:11am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

I think the quote is
"Voters were waiting with baseball bats"
How you can claim Howard was less popular than Keating is beyond comprehension & points to delusion/fear starting to niggle.

BTW you said Howard was in Government in 96 2 days ago so what is it?

Howard rarely had high personal popularity and keating usually was above him. But Im confused about your second line. Howard WAS in govt in 96. Am I missing something?

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #35 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:13am

Gist wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:51am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

Read the highlighted bit over and over and eventually it'll begin to dawn on you. You're best not to say anything more until then.

as usual, YOU DONT GET IT. Abbott will win the election in a landslide and just as Howard won elections when sometimes not personally popular, so will Abbott.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

PoliticalReality

Full Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 155
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #36 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Back to top

IP Logged

Dsmithy70

Gold Member

Offline

ire futuis vobismetipsis

Posts: 13147
Newy
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #37 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:32am

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:12am:

Dsmithy70 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:11am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

I think the quote is
"Voters were waiting with baseball bats"
How you can claim Howard was less popular than Keating is beyond comprehension & points to delusion/fear starting to niggle.

BTW you said Howard was in Government in 96 2 days ago so what is it?

Howard rarely had high personal popularity and keating usually was above him. But Im confused about your second line. Howard WAS in govt in 96. Am I missing something?

Quote:

Lowest approval rating

Paul Keating holds the record with 27% (20-22 August 1993).
John Howard is second lowest, with 32% (26-28 June 1998).
Bob Hawke is tied second lowest, with 32% (22-24 November 1991 & 29 November-1 December 1991 & 6-8 December 1991).
Julia Gillard is third lowest, with 34% (2-4 September 2011).
Highest dissatisfied rating

Paul Keating holds the record with 75% (3-5 September 1993).
Julia Gillard is second highest, with 68% (2-4 September 2011).
John Howard is third highest, with 64% (9-11 March 2001).
Bob Hawke is tied third highest, with 64% (29 November-1 December 1991 & 6-8 December 1991).

Quote:

At the 1996 election, the Keating Government was swept from power in a landslide, losing 29 seats and suffering a five percent two party preferred swing--in terms of seats lost, the second-worst defeat of a sitting government at the federal level in Australia. Keating immediately resigned as Labor Party leader, and resigned from Parliament a little over a month later, on 23 April 1996.[34]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Keating#Prime_Minister:_1991.E2.80.931996

So going back to the "Is anyone suprised" thread and your assertion Howards speeches were made from Government not opposition, it would seem I was right.
Howard could release policy with detail yet Abbott cannot unless your going to try & say those speeches were made after the election.

Quote:

CW - thanks for thinking about the deeper issues in a non partisan way Smiley

AP - why could Howard do it yet Abbott can't/won't, again a bold outline would do at this stage.

As for the rest of the usual suspects, I assume your part of the 24% [quote]

[quote]serious? you dont realise that howard was in GOVT at the time and Abbott is OPPOSITION leader?? different rules there smithy. Govts have to show their policies otherwishe they dont actually have to do anything, oppositions get to keep their powder dry. It's been that way for a while now.

That is the reason for the 2nd line

Back to top

REBELLION is not what most people think it is.
REBELLION is when you turn off the TV & start educating & thinking for yourself.
Gavin Nascimento

IP Logged

Maqqa

Gold Member

Offline

14% - that low?!

Posts: 16000

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #38 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:40am

PoliticalReality wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Seats are won on individual

Governments are won on 2PP

Your post says Part's have won 2PP and have not won the election - give us an example please

Back to top

Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number

IP Logged

Dsmithy70

Gold Member

Offline

ire futuis vobismetipsis

Posts: 13147
Newy
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #39 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:43am

Maqqa wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

PoliticalReality wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Seats are won on individual

Governments are won on 2PP

Your post says Part's have won 2PP and have not won the election - give us an example please

John Howard
98 GST election

Quote:

The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party.

Back to top

REBELLION is not what most people think it is.
REBELLION is when you turn off the TV & start educating & thinking for yourself.
Gavin Nascimento

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #40 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 12:08pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

PoliticalReality wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Seats are won on individual

Governments are won on 2PP

Your post says Part's have won 2PP and have not won the election - give us an example please

SA 2010. labor won on 47.3% 2PP

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

PoliticalReality

Full Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 155
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #41 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 12:20pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

PoliticalReality wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Seats are won on individual

Governments are won on 2PP

Your post says Part's have won 2PP and have not won the election - give us an example please

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1998

"The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite gaining almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote, the Australian Labor Party fell short of forming government by 8 seats. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937."

So it's happened 6 times Federally

Back to top

IP Logged

Maqqa

Gold Member

Offline

14% - that low?!

Posts: 16000

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #42 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 12:23pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 12:08pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

PoliticalReality wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Seats are won on individual

Governments are won on 2PP

Your post says Part's have won 2PP and have not won the election - give us an example please

SA 2010. labor won on 47.3% 2PP

I stand corrected

The ALP still won more seat?

The only way to win a seat is the individual wins based on the 2PP?

So if you win enough seats to win government then you would win the 2PP

The SA election showed the swing is not uniform in the seats ie in some seats there were huge swings and in some seats there were little to no change which is why the ALP only lost 2 seats

Back to top

Bill 14% is not the alcohol content of that wine. It's your poll number

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Abbott days are numbered
Reply #43 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 5:11pm

Maqqa wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 12:23pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 12:08pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:40am:

PoliticalReality wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 11:15am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 15^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

Gist wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 8:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 14^th, 2012 at 4:53pm:

how do you figure that? A very large majority awaits... and there is no evidence of the margin changing much. all it has done in the last 18months is vary from very large to massive.

Because like the useless dishrag you are, you're completely unable to distinguish between Abbott's numbers and the coalition's numbers. While the coalition may well be sitting comfortably at 56/44, Abbott's approval sits about par with Gillard's at just about on par with the popularity of dog vomit. One side only has to blink and the other will switch leaders faster than you can say "STAB!"

and guess how elections are won... on 2PP - not personal popularity. Howard won a massive victory in 96 while being less popular than keating. Do you think anyone wanted to replace Howard?

You keep saying that but it's not actually true - Party's have won the 2PP vote and still not formed government

Seats are won on 2PP, elections are won by whoever can form government, ie, Seats in the Lower House

Seats are won on individual

Governments are won on 2PP

Your post says Part's have won 2PP and have not won the election - give us an example please

SA 2010. labor won on 47.3% 2PP

I stand corrected

The ALP still won more seat?

The only way to win a seat is the individual wins based on the 2PP?

So if you win enough seats to win government then you would win the 2PP

The SA election showed the swing is not uniform in the seats ie in some seats there were huge swings and in some seats there were little to no change which is why the ALP only lost 2 seats

the SA example was an extreme one. It is not however all that unusual for a govt to be formed onslightly less than half the 2PP. However, the 2PP is not an official measurment that forms no part of the electoral act. it is a statistical grouping method used to make disaplying preference outcomes more easily.the 2PP is founded upon the notion that all preferences are genuine whereas they are plainly not. the vast majority vote for one person with little to no consideration for 2nd preference. 90%+ follow the party voting slip where preferences are made strategically rather than based on individual value of the candidate.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

longweekend58 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 45675 Gender:	Re: Abbott days are numbered Reply #44 - Jun 15^th, 2012 at 5:13pm I see Valley Boy has been deleted as a member. Couldnt happen to a more deserving freak.
Back to top	AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..." IP Logged