Australian Politics Forum - Right wing refo rubbish

progressiveslol

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #240 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:40pm

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:39pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:37pm:

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:35pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:30pm:

So where does your divergence come from. I still cant see it with this AGW type quakery.

You failed on the red line big time.

As I said, the red line is a ratio - people per boat. It's been steadily increasing since 2005 which means that boats are steadily getting more and more people on them.

ONE boat sinking in 2005 would on average have meant 3 deaths. In 2011 ONE boat sinking would have meant on average 66 deaths.

So where is that number represented on the graph.

For the third time - it is plotted on the right axis.

So you somehow got the right axis to represent boats and ratio. Well done.

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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #241 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:46pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:40pm:

Yes so imagine 100 boats and the extra chance of that 100 people on just 1 boat. You are fooling no-one. 7 boats, if all sank, 700 people. 100 boats 10000 people.

Are you being intentionally obtuse? Wouldn't be the first time.

We're talking about a trend OVER TIME. 2005 through to 2007 to be specific. One 2005 boat is not equivalent to one 2007 boat or a 2012 boat either for that matter. That's because the trend is upwards and continuing to rise.

So stopping 100 boats out of 700 doesn't mean much if the exactly the same number of people cram on to the remaining 600 boats does it?

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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #242 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:50pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:40pm:

So you somehow got the right axis to represent boats and ratio. Well done.

Hardly noteworthy. It just so happens that they're a similar range - 0 to about 130 - so they can be plotted directly on the same axis. Otherwise I'd have had to use a multiplier somewhere.

Of course, if you want to use a cannon like SPSS to shoot a grasshopper then it could be tricky...

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progressiveslol

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #243 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:54pm

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:50pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:40pm:

So you somehow got the right axis to represent boats and ratio. Well done.

Hardly noteworthy. It just so happens that they're a similar range - 0 to about 130 - so they can be plotted directly on the same axis. Otherwise I'd have had to use a multiplier somewhere.

Of course, if you want to use a cannon like SPSS to shoot a grasshopper then it could be tricky...

Now for you to make it complete.

How many boats sank ratio. Then trend that line with how many boats were in the pacific solution to how many there are without the pacific solution.

What is the trend. 1 out of 100 boats sink/sank. 1 out of 50?

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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #244 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 2:04pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:54pm:

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:50pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:40pm:

So you somehow got the right axis to represent boats and ratio. Well done.

Hardly noteworthy. It just so happens that they're a similar range - 0 to about 130 - so they can be plotted directly on the same axis. Otherwise I'd have had to use a multiplier somewhere.

Of course, if you want to use a cannon like SPSS to shoot a grasshopper then it could be tricky...

Now for you to make it complete.

How many boats sank ratio. Then trend that line with how many boats were in the pacific solution to how many there are without the pacific solution.

What is the trend. 1 out of 100 boats sink/sank. 1 out of 50?

Yes, I agree, that'd be an interesting thing to examine. But as far as I know that info isn't available. Neither is the number of boats that set out and returned to Indonesia of their own accord.

Both of these would give a fuller picture of how many boats/people who left Indonesia bound for Australia which is what we really should talk about. I've seen references for instance which mention sinkings AFTER the Pacific Solution was implemented. They don't get counted of course. If they did then perhaps that sudden drop in wouldn't be so sharp.

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Sir Spot of Borg Gold Member Offline WE ARE BORG Posts: 26509 Australia	Re: Right wing refo rubbish Reply #245 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 2:10pm .
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progressiveslol

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #246 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 2:18pm

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:46pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 1:40pm:

Yes so imagine 100 boats and the extra chance of that 100 people on just 1 boat. You are fooling no-one. 7 boats, if all sank, 700 people. 100 boats 10000 people.

Are you being intentionally obtuse? Wouldn't be the first time.

We're talking about a trend OVER TIME. 2005 through to 2007 to be specific. One 2005 boat is not equivalent to one 2007 boat or a 2012 boat either for that matter. That's because the trend is upwards and continuing to rise.

So stopping 100 boats out of 700 doesn't mean much if the exactly the same number of people cram on to the remaining 600 boats does it?

The numbers would be far worse outside of the pacific solution with an average persons per boat atleast double that of the worst persons per boat of the pacific solution.

Getting worse in 2012 with atleast 4500 people for the half year to june.

So without a doubt, the more boats, the more deaths (simple math a child could do it). Pacific solution is the only solution known to work and Gillard is being partisan to somehow save face.

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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #247 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:36pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 2:18pm:

The numbers would be far worse outside of the pacific solution with an average persons per boat atleast double that of the worst persons per boat of the pacific solution.

Getting worse in 2012 with atleast 4500 people for the half year to june.

So without a doubt, the more boats, the more deaths (simple math a child could do it). Pacific solution is the only solution known to work and Gillard is being partisan to somehow save face.

Yes without a doubt more boats equals more deaths. But apparently, 10 boats with 10 people each on them is TEN TIMES WORSE than 1 boat with 100 people on it.

And of course, ONE boat sinking with a 1,000 people on it is a major success...

Whodathunkit? Tongue

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 105358 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Right wing refo rubbish Reply #248 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:53pm This is what they do to people in Malaysia: It's barbaric & amounts to torture.
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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #249 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:58pm

Bobby. wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:53pm:

This is what they do to people in Malaysia:

It's barbaric & amounts to torture.

I agree bobby.

However it is also what they WOULDN'T be doing to the asylum seekers sent there under the Malaysia Solution. It was specifically agreed with the Malaysians that they would not cane the asylum seekers sent there.

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Bobby.

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #250 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:02pm

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:58pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:53pm:

This is what they do to people in Malaysia:

It's barbaric & amounts to torture.

I agree bobby.

However it is also what they WOULDN'T be doing to the asylum seekers sent there under the Malaysia Solution. It was specifically agreed with the Malaysians that they would not cane the asylum seekers sent there.

But can you trust those Malaysians?

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progressiveslol

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #251 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:22pm

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 3:36pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 2:18pm:

The numbers would be far worse outside of the pacific solution with an average persons per boat atleast double that of the worst persons per boat of the pacific solution.

Getting worse in 2012 with atleast 4500 people for the half year to june.

So without a doubt, the more boats, the more deaths (simple math a child could do it). Pacific solution is the only solution known to work and Gillard is being partisan to somehow save face.

Yes without a doubt more boats equals more deaths. But apparently, 10 boats with 10 people each on them is TEN TIMES WORSE than 1 boat with 100 people on it.

And of course, ONE boat sinking with a 1,000 people on it is a major success...

Whodathunkit? Tongue

Average 29 persons per boat pacific solution. Average 46 persons per boat non-pacific solution. Math says non-pacific solution boats sinking = more deaths.

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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #252 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:38pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:22pm:

Average 29 persons per boat pacific solution. Average 46 persons per boat non-pacific solution. Math says non-pacific solution boats sinking = more deaths.

Maths also says that the Pacific Solution was failing from 2005 onwards. That's comparing PS years to PS years. Changes to legislation, elections, whatever - none of that comes into it.

Which was, after all, what I set out to show - the Pacific Solution was failing. If you want to claim it would work now given that it was failing then you had best show some evidence! Or continue just waving your arms around and making brazen assertions hoping you're right.

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progressiveslol

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #253 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:39pm

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:38pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:22pm:

Average 29 persons per boat pacific solution. Average 46 persons per boat non-pacific solution. Math says non-pacific solution boats sinking = more deaths.

Maths also says that the Pacific Solution was failing from 2005 onwards. That's comparing PS years to PS years. Changes to legislation, elections, whatever - none of that comes into it.

Which was, after all, what I set out to show - the Pacific Solution was failing. If you want to claim it would work now given that it was failing then you had best show some evidence! Or continue just waving your arms around and making brazen assertions hoping you're right.

No, maths does not at all. Cant blame the tool, just the tool using it. You.

7 boats tops. 1 boat extra per year. Maths says the tool using the tool, has failed. You again.

Compare 7 boats tops with 60 boats and 134 non-pacicific solution. You fail at maths.

And as stated above, the non-pacific solution had a higher rate of persons per boat. You fail at math again.

Here is a little math for ya.

1 pacific solution boat sinks. 29 dead.

1 non-pacific solution boat sinks 46 dead.

Which is the bigger number.

Then tell us, if you have 7 boats in 1 year compared to 134 boats in 1 year, are the chances of a boat sinking higher within the 134 boats or within the 7 boats?

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« Last Edit: Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:47pm by progressiveslol »

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Gist

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Re: Right wing refo rubbish
Reply #254 - Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:48pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:39pm:

Gist wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:38pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jun 29^th, 2012 at 4:22pm:

Average 29 persons per boat pacific solution. Average 46 persons per boat non-pacific solution. Math says non-pacific solution boats sinking = more deaths.

Maths also says that the Pacific Solution was failing from 2005 onwards. That's comparing PS years to PS years. Changes to legislation, elections, whatever - none of that comes into it.

Which was, after all, what I set out to show - the Pacific Solution was failing. If you want to claim it would work now given that it was failing then you had best show some evidence! Or continue just waving your arms around and making brazen assertions hoping you're right.

No, maths does not at all. Cant blame the tool, just the tool using it. You.

7 boats tops. 1 boat extra per year. Maths says the tool using the tool, has failed. You again.

Compare 7 boats tops with 60 boats and 134 non-pacicific solution. You fail at maths.

And as stated above, the non-pacific solution had a higher rate of persons per boat. You fail at math again.

There ya go! Obsessing with boats again after you've just been shown precisely how stupid that is just because it is the one small thin straw that you can clutch at which has any hope of supporting your claim.

You DO realise just how much that kind of thing undermines any cred you may have had?

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