Australian Politics Forum - Greens crashed in the polls

longweekend58

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Re: Greens crashed in the polls
Reply #15 - Jul 31^st, 2012 at 10:14am

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:45pm:

Do you guys know what a margin of error is? When I clock up another 5 posts and am allowed to post links I'll show you what one is and why you can't read polls.

that should be entertaining. most people who refer to margin of error try to use it to explain why labor isnt in fact way behind despite the historicaly evidence that newspoll's ACTUAL margin of error is about 1.1% not the 3% typically assigned such polls.

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Upton Sinclair Senior Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 496	Re: Greens crashed in the polls Reply #16 - Jul 31^st, 2012 at 12:26pm So, calculating the mean for the last 12 months of Newspoll data the Greens average at 12% support. Can the OP please explain how a drop of 1% on a 12-month average with a 3% margin of error translates into the Greens vote being "crushed"? I'm assuming I shouldn't hold my breath waiting for an answer?
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Upton Sinclair

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Re: Greens crashed in the polls
Reply #17 - Jul 31^st, 2012 at 12:30pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 31^st, 2012 at 10:14am:

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:45pm:

Do you guys know what a margin of error is? When I clock up another 5 posts and am allowed to post links I'll show you what one is and why you can't read polls.

that should be entertaining. most people who refer to margin of error try to use it to explain why labor isnt in fact way behind despite the historicaly evidence that newspoll's ACTUAL margin of error is about 1.1% not the 3% typically assigned such polls.

What have Labor got to do with a thread on the Greens polling? And, assuming that you are correct with the 1.1% margin of error you've ascribed to Newspoll, can you please explain how a drop of 1% from a 12-month running average translates into the Greens vote being "crushed"? That's still well within the margin of error and is statistically insignificant. and that's assuming that your 1.1% figure is indeed accurate, which a quick Google suggests that it isn't

From ABC AM:

Quote:

The Newspoll survey shows the party's primary vote has dropped to 28 per cent. The Coalition is now up to 47 per cent. That's a change of four percentage points in two weeks and the result is just outside the margin of error, which is 3 percentage points.

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"I am not asking the Australian people to take me on trust, but on the record of a lifetime,"
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Armchair_Politician

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Re: Greens crashed in the polls
Reply #18 - Jul 31^st, 2012 at 9:05pm

Bobby. wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:25pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 12^th, 2012 at 8:22pm:

bybe bye greens. you wont be missed.

I voted Green in the last election because I
had to try & keep the bastards honest & it worked.
Neither Labor nor Libbos could always have their own despot ways.

I hope the Greens get the balance & stuff Tony up next time.

I'm not so sure - Gillard lied her way into the Prime Ministership...

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John Smith

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Re: Greens crashed in the polls
Reply #19 - Jul 31^st, 2012 at 9:13pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 31^st, 2012 at 12:30pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 31^st, 2012 at 10:14am:

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:45pm:

Do you guys know what a margin of error is? When I clock up another 5 posts and am allowed to post links I'll show you what one is and why you can't read polls.

that should be entertaining. most people who refer to margin of error try to use it to explain why labor isnt in fact way behind despite the historicaly evidence that newspoll's ACTUAL margin of error is about 1.1% not the 3% typically assigned such polls.

What have Labor got to do with a thread on the Greens polling? And, assuming that you are correct with the 1.1% margin of error you've ascribed to Newspoll, can you please explain how a drop of 1% from a 12-month running average translates into the Greens vote being "crushed"? That's still well within the margin of error and is statistically insignificant. and that's assuming that your 1.1% figure is indeed accurate, which a quick Google suggests that it isn't

From ABC AM:

Quote:

The Newspoll survey shows the party's primary vote has dropped to 28 per cent. The Coalition is now up to 47 per cent. That's a change of four percentage points in two weeks and the result is just outside the margin of error, which is 3 percentage points.

you'll learn that longstupidone likes to make up 'facts' (it's the voices in his head that confuse him) , and then when he is confronted with the truth, he'll either change the conversation to something else or ignore you altogether ....

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Armchair_Politician

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Re: Greens crashed in the polls
Reply #20 - Jul 31^st, 2012 at 9:15pm

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 31^st, 2012 at 12:30pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 31^st, 2012 at 10:14am:

Upton Sinclair wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:45pm:

Do you guys know what a margin of error is? When I clock up another 5 posts and am allowed to post links I'll show you what one is and why you can't read polls.

that should be entertaining. most people who refer to margin of error try to use it to explain why labor isnt in fact way behind despite the historicaly evidence that newspoll's ACTUAL margin of error is about 1.1% not the 3% typically assigned such polls.

What have Labor got to do with a thread on the Greens polling? And, assuming that you are correct with the 1.1% margin of error you've ascribed to Newspoll, can you please explain how a drop of 1% from a 12-month running average translates into the Greens vote being "crushed"? That's still well within the margin of error and is statistically insignificant. and that's assuming that your 1.1% figure is indeed accurate, which a quick Google suggests that it isn't

From ABC AM:

Quote:

The Newspoll survey shows the party's primary vote has dropped to 28 per cent. The Coalition is now up to 47 per cent. That's a change of four percentage points in two weeks and the result is just outside the margin of error, which is 3 percentage points.

Well, the Greens never had that many votes to begin with, did they??? Grin

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Prevailing Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 7169 Stop Men	Re: Greens crashed in the polls Reply #21 - Aug 1^st, 2012 at 1:39am Australian citizens have a legal & constitutional right to defend themselves against corporate economic aggression, abuse of the power of the state and any attempt to impose social law and ideology on them...so be careful Beavis & Butthead and know your role...
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Verge

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Re: Greens crashed in the polls
Reply #22 - Aug 1^st, 2012 at 10:15am

adelcrow wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 6:50pm:

Wow its the same as the last election ..thats gonna mean they lose..no seats Grin

Considering the ALP has tanked, I would consider it a failure.

The Greens call themselves an alternative yet cant pick up disaffected voters.

If they were such a great alternative, they would have picked up the ALP voters who are walking away in disgust. Instead they would rather go to a party with Abbott in control. Says a lot really.

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