gold_medal
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perceptions_now wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 12:34pm: gold_medal wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 9:16am: Bobby. wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 9:11am: gold_medal wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 9:08am: Bobby. wrote on Aug 3 rd, 2012 at 8:51pm: Good question but there is no doubt that the major oil fields are well in decline. Just as there is no doubt that the NEW oil fields are significantly BIGGER than the current ones. It is such a pity that the doom-and-gloom paranoia of the left and the dumb (same thing) rarely matches reality. Perhaps that is why every left-governed country is such a mess or headed there. Rubbish, there has never been a bigger oil field found than in Saudi Arabia. The shale oil fields of the USA are 7 times larger than Saudi Arabia and recent improvements in drilling technology (going sideways) has made many other fields now economic and viable. Then we go to Canada whose tar sands are now becoming economic to recover and also contain 7 times the amount as in Saudi Arabia. Southern American oil fields are now also becoming economic driven both by higher oil prices and cheaper extraction technologies. So you might as well get over the fact that oil is still in plentiful supply. All we have done so far is access the EASY sources and as drilling technology continues to evole more and more deeper and otherwise inaccessible fields will come online. I know this is uncomfortable for you to accept but the peak oil nonsense is just that - nonsense. That is why we were supposed to run out of oil in 1985 and then again in 2000 and why now we are supposed to be experiencing chronic shortages while there is in fact a mild GLUT in world oil supplies. Must suck to be an uninformed gullible leftie, mustn't it? GM, As put to Prevailing already, you may like to comment on the following - "Given that Economics is all about Supply & Demand, perhaps you can explain to us, the reasons for the massive increases in Oil & Coal, in particular? If not shortages, then what are the reasons that have influenced the Crude Oil Price? For example, the Price of a barrel of WTi went from around US$10 in the late 1990's, to US$147 a barrel in 2008, before crashing to around US$40 in 2009, before starting to climb again, where it is now reaching back towards US$100. So, what reasoning could there be for the size of these increases & the great variations?" Btw, there are "Conventional" & "Unconventional" sources of Oil, Tar Sands & Shale Oil fall into the "Unconventional" sector. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil
The following chart mentions some of the Energy sources now in use, including the Tar Sands & Shale Oil you have mentioned.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/EROI_-_Ratio_of_Energy_...The EROEI on the following alternative fuel sources are clearly NOT going to replace Oil & Coal, with Oil in particular having an EROEI of 100-150 earlier on in its life.
EROEI (for US) Fuel 1.3 Biodiesel 1.3 Ethanol corn 1.6 Solar collector 1.9 Solar flat plate 3.0 Bitumen tar sands 5.0 Ethanol sugarcane 5.0 Shale oil 6.8 Photovoltaichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_investedIn any event, these "Unconventional" sources of Oil, including Tar Sands & Shale Oil, can not be produced in the volume required, to run the modern world.
In fact, part of the reason for the large Oil Price increases, since the late 1990's, can be traced back to the scaling up of Production for these "Unconventional" sources of Oil and that will continue to weigh on the Global Economy! You are correct, in at least one respect, what we have done so far is access all of the most easily accessible fruit (Energy Sources), from the lowest branches & from here on in, fruit picking (Energy Production) becomes more more difficult AND much more expensive! Peak Oil is a concept mostly promulgated by people without the slightest clue what it means. Peak Oil isnt about the ease or price of extraction but about the commercial viability of extraction in a global market place. As such, technology and discovery moves they THEROETICAL peak oil point further on in time. It is not an absolute, nor is it fixed in place. it is an ecnomic construct designed to help measure supply and demand curves into the future. You seem to be accepting all the negatives of demand qithout question while rejecting all the positives of supply improvements and other technologies including ones not yet delivered or imagined. Your peak oil philosphy seems based entirely on fear and paranoia. it isnt even close to reality based either historically or economically. You like doom-and-gloom. That's your choice. But it mainly comes across as depression and paranoia.
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