gold_medal
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perceptions_now wrote on Aug 5 th, 2012 at 9:34am: GM, Just in case you don't know how to bring up the previous post, I've asked you to respond to (a few times), here it is. You still don't seem to want to or have the answers to, the issues raised in the following post, you are simply going on hopium. So again, why have the Prices already changed so much, over the last decade or so & of what benefit are your "UnConventional" Oils (Tar Sands & Shale Oil) IF their EROEI makes them pretty much a net Energy sink? And that, is without even going into how "UnConventional" Oils (Tar Sands & Shale Oil) could be manufactured on the sort of scale required to run a modern Global Economy, with a world of over 7 Billion people? I look forward to your detailed response? perceptions_now wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 12:34pm: gold_medal wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 9:16am: Bobby. wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 9:11am: gold_medal wrote on Aug 4 th, 2012 at 9:08am: Bobby. wrote on Aug 3 rd, 2012 at 8:51pm: Good question but there is no doubt that the major oil fields are well in decline. Just as there is no doubt that the NEW oil fields are significantly BIGGER than the current ones. It is such a pity that the doom-and-gloom paranoia of the left and the dumb (same thing) rarely matches reality. Perhaps that is why every left-governed country is such a mess or headed there. Rubbish, there has never been a bigger oil field found than in Saudi Arabia. The shale oil fields of the USA are 7 times larger than Saudi Arabia and recent improvements in drilling technology (going sideways) has made many other fields now economic and viable. Then we go to Canada whose tar sands are now becoming economic to recover and also contain 7 times the amount as in Saudi Arabia. Southern American oil fields are now also becoming economic driven both by higher oil prices and cheaper extraction technologies. So you might as well get over the fact that oil is still in plentiful supply. All we have done so far is access the EASY sources and as drilling technology continues to evole more and more deeper and otherwise inaccessible fields will come online. I know this is uncomfortable for you to accept but the peak oil nonsense is just that - nonsense. That is why we were supposed to run out of oil in 1985 and then again in 2000 and why now we are supposed to be experiencing chronic shortages while there is in fact a mild GLUT in world oil supplies. Must suck to be an uninformed gullible leftie, mustn't it? GM, As put to Prevailing already, you may like to comment on the following - "Given that Economics is all about Supply & Demand, perhaps you can explain to us, the reasons for the massive increases in Oil & Coal, in particular? If not shortages, then what are the reasons that have influenced the Crude Oil Price? For example, the Price of a barrel of WTi went from around US$10 in the late 1990's, to US$147 a barrel in 2008, before crashing to around US$40 in 2009, before starting to climb again, where it is now reaching back towards US$100. So, what reasoning could there be for the size of these increases & the great variations?" Btw, there are "Conventional" & "Unconventional" sources of Oil, Tar Sands & Shale Oil fall into the "Unconventional" sector. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil
The following chart mentions some of the Energy sources now in use, including the Tar Sands & Shale Oil you have mentioned.http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/EROI_-_Ratio_of_Energy_...The EROEI on the following alternative fuel sources are clearly NOT going to replace Oil & Coal, with Oil in particular having an EROEI of 100-150 earlier on in its life.
EROEI (for US) Fuel 1.3 Biodiesel 1.3 Ethanol corn 1.6 Solar collector 1.9 Solar flat plate 3.0 Bitumen tar sands 5.0 Ethanol sugarcane 5.0 Shale oil 6.8 Photovoltaichttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_investedIn any event, these "Unconventional" sources of Oil, including Tar Sands & Shale Oil, can not be produced in the volume required, to run the modern world.
In fact, part of the reason for the large Oil Price increases, since the late 1990's, can be traced back to the scaling up of Production for these "Unconventional" sources of Oil and that will continue to weigh on the Global Economy! You are correct, in at least one respect, what we have done so far is access all of the most easily accessible fruit (Energy Sources), from the lowest branches & from here on in, fruit picking (Energy Production) becomes more more difficult AND much more expensive! Giving you a detailed response is pretty pointless because like so many others on this thread you will simply ignore some answers and misinterpret the rest. Youy love to believe we have passed peak oil. Go for it. Go hide under a rock if you have to but you are wrong. The amount of oil on planet earth is massive. The amount that is easily extracted is not. But technology is still evolving to handle these otherwise uneconomic fields. You rather gloomy predictions utterly ignore ANY new fields or any technology improvements to make existing unecomoic fields viable. You simply cannot produce a predictive model that ignores any change - especially when change is one of those constant things. You seem to be stuck in the 1970s and its energy industy back then which was inefficient and hopelessly narrow-vision. since then the energy industry and oil industry has taken a lot of very long-term investments in technology which will make oil extraction economic in the future. it is that approach which is making tar sands and shale oil viable now. You seem to have that depressive view that no good news ever affects. I predict that in 2025 when the biggest oil producers in the world are canada and USA that you will still be telling everyone that we are past peak oil etc etc showing a 2002 in 2012 was an embarrassment. Keep up and for goodness sake, get some therapy for that perennially gloomy outlook.
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