perceptions_now
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Australian Politics
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Perth WA
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gold_medal wrote on Aug 7 th, 2012 at 4:52pm: perceptions_now wrote on Aug 6 th, 2012 at 9:07pm: gold_medal wrote on Aug 6 th, 2012 at 8:26pm: You may have noticed that NO ONE responds to the sock allegations because they are so pointless. A) everyone is mellie according to the marsupial and B) what does it matter anyhow?
people with an interest in debate and half the brain to do so read the post, not wax on about the name behind the ID.
and perceptions, you lengthy and thoroughly inaccurate posts on oil are silly. as mentioned several times (with no reply) if your predictions make the assumption of no new oil fields and no new extractiontechnologies or efficiencies of use than all you are doing is ensuring that your prediction will fail big time. I have done work in predictive modelling and one of the big issues is to ensure that you include FUTURE CHANGES. assuming that nothing changes is the fool-proof death to your model because EVERYTHING CHANGES1 GM/Longy, Can I suggest there are 2 pointless things here - 1) Using a sock! 2) Replying to specific issues, by using generalities! As previously said, IF you have some real information/input on the reasons for the big Energy Price hikes OR the likely effects of the Energy Sink that is "Unconventional" Oil, then please post them. Otherwise, there really isn't much point. Sigh... sometimes it is like debating with a child. the reasons for the big energy prices are many and well established. However, the rise in the price of oil has been part and parcel of why some previously uneconomic fields are now economically viable. This is basic economic theory which makes it surprising why you dont understand it. Not once have you ever conceded that exproration and technology may increase the known viable supplies of oil. How can you seriously expect anyone to believe your points is you deliberately and obstintately exclude 'change' from your predictive model? I am equally sure that you do not have an answer so you will return to your normal style of simply repeating your one mantra time and time again. I am happy for you to disappoint me in that regard! Longy,
In reality, you've said nothing new, you still didn't answer why Energy Prices have been rising so much and you still didn't answer how your favoured new Energy sources are anything, other than an Energy Sink!
You refer to basic Economic theory, but you fail to concede that the most basic of tenant of Economic theory is Supply & Demand & that is the real reason for the big Energy Price hikes. Demand (of Energy) is going up & Supply (of Energy) is leveling off, as a prelude to going down, as Hubbert predicted for both the US, which is already historical FACT & Globally, which is now becoming a FACT!
You say, some previously uneconomic fields are now economically viable and that is correct. However, the Oil being produced by these old fields is quite small in the overall Production required, particularly compared to the substantial depletion rates of the BIG old fields such as the Middle East & the big European North Sea fields.
In fact, the North Sea is well into its Decline phase & the 2 BIG M/E fields of Ghawar & Burgan are about to enter that phase OR already have.
However, all of this is really basic stuff, which you continue to avoid, as being the main reason for the big Price increases -
IT IS BASIC ECONOMICS
IT IS SUPPLY & DEMAND!!!
As for your new Energy sources, you continue to say nothing about how to avoid those being Net Energy Sinks!
As for exploration and technology, that is a given, YES both of those areas will add to the available Supply level, but they will not offset the losses from the Depletion of the OLD, BIG fields, which you obstinately refuse to discuss, let alone acknowledge.
Finally, I am sure you will continue to repeat your well worn mantra of saying nothing of substance and nothing that addresses the real issues.
As I have previously said, IF you have some real information/input on the reasons for the big Energy Price hikes OR the likely effects of the Energy Sink that is "Unconventional" Oil, then please post them.
Otherwise, there really isn't much point.
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