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What happens when we run out of oil? (Read 2107 times)

perceptions_now

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #30 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 5:05pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 2:31pm:

All the alternatives to oil are either extremely expensive to get, or take away from our food supply which is already at danger point.

I wonder if it really will be a case of going back in time to before the industrial revolution. We'd all be a lot healthier that's for sure, maybe that's what we need to save mankind from death by consumption.

I hate these lawnmowers.

http://www.luxuryhousingtrends.com/reel-lawn-mower.jpg

I would have said -
All the alternatives to oil are either extremely expensive to get & take away from our food supply which is already at danger point.

PS - We don't have lawn, so lawn mowers are not a (my) problem.
Not having lawn, also means our water consumption is low, which is fortunate because we ain't getting any rain, in Perth!

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perceptions_now

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #31 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 5:08pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 2:55pm:

freediver wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 2:49pm:

Quote:

All the alternatives to oil are either extremely expensive to get, or take away from our food supply which is already at danger point.

That's because they are alternatives. Once there is serious demand for them people will put in the investments required to develop cheaper ways.

yes neccessity is the mother of all inventions Wink

True, BUT you can't invent what isn't there, unless you think magic is actually real?

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perceptions_now Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11694 Perth WA Gender:	Re: What happens when we run out of oil? Reply #32 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 5:08pm Prevailing wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 1:53pm: We have enough oil to fill the Earth three times over... Groan!!!!!
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perceptions_now

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #33 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 5:12pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 1:28pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:32pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 11:31am:

freediver wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:51am:

There are plenty of alternatives already, and that is without trying very hard to replace oil.

except of course that is a lie - a complete fallacy. Electric cars are no alternative to petrol cars as they simply dont do the job. and anyhow, they are still mainly recharged using coal-powered stations anyhow.

current expectations are that there is about 80-100 years left of oil in current reserves. and recent technology has made tar sands and shale oil commercially viable. USA and Canda currently has reserves of those oils of 14 times that which saudi arabia has - the worlds biggest oilfield.

the oil shortage has been oversold and over-rated - like most hysterias.

This is one of those rare occasions, when I will agree with Longweakend, at least on one point.

In fact, there are NOT plenty of alternatives to Crude Oil, at least not on the magnitude required or the Price needed.

However, I must disagree with Longweakend, in that the newer "alternatives", such as Tar Sands & Shale Oil, can NOT be Produced at the Net Energy output required.

They are in fact, Energy Sinks, which means they use more Energy than they Produce or they are very close to it, which means that the spare Energy capacity we once had is long gone, as are the existing levels of Productivity gains that arose from a mixture of Innovation & cheap Energy.

The EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested) was around 100/1 at one point, it is now down under 5/1 on many of the "New alternatives"! One exception being Hyrdo, but that isn't going to power transport & it's not going to Produce all the synthetic Products that currently are derived from the Hydrocarbons found in Crude Oil.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/EROI_-_Ratio_of_Energy_...

EROI (for US) Fuel
1.3 Biodiesel
3.0 Bitumen tar sands
80.0 Coal
1.3 Ethanol corn
5.0 Ethanol sugarcane
100.0 Hydro
35.0 Oil imports 1990
18.0 Oil imports 2005
12.0 Oil imports 2007
8.0 Oil discoveries
20.0 Oil production
10.0 Natural gas 2005
10.0 Nuclear
30.0 Oil and gas 1970
14.5 Oil and gas 2005
6.8 Photovoltaic
5.0 Shale oil
1.6 Solar collector
1.9 Solar flat plate
18.0 Wind
35.0 World oil production
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested

In terms of the current expectations being that there are about 80-100 years left of oil in current reserves, that is also well off the correct timeline, BUT the problems start well before these Energy lifelines actually completely run out.

In fact, we have already started to see the effects, from the perceptions that the end of Oil & Coal is now in sight and that has been under way for a decade of more.

Crude Oil was under US$10 per Barrel around the year 2000, it went as high as US$147 in 2008, before falling back to US$30, but it is now retracing back to around US$100, depending on the source and when these shortages become apparent Prices will rise thru the roof.

Coal has also started a relentless push upwards, which is caused by shortages & lessening Energy output, from the lower grades of Coal that must now be used, as the higher grade Coal Production has Peaked!

Finally, there is the question of lead times, to change over Global Technologies and in many cases in would take decades to change our Energy technologies, decades we just don't have!

So who can explain to me, how the following alternative fuel sources are going to replace Oil & Coal?

EROI (for US) Fuel
1.3 Biodiesel
1.3 Ethanol corn
1.6 Solar collector
1.9 Solar flat plate
3.0 Bitumen tar sands
5.0 Ethanol sugarcane
5.0 Shale oil
6.8 Photovoltaic

I didn't think so!

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longweekend58

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #34 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 6:10pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:46pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:37pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:31pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 11:31am:

freediver wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 9:51am:

There are plenty of alternatives already, and that is without trying very hard to replace oil.

except of course that is a lie - a complete fallacy. Electric cars are no alternative to petrol cars as they simply dont do the job. and anyhow, they are still mainly recharged using coal-powered stations anyhow.

current expectations are that there is about 80-100 years left of oil in current reserves. and recent technology has made tar sands and shale oil commercially viable. USA and Canda currently has reserves of those oils of 14 times that which saudi arabia has - the worlds biggest oilfield.

the oil shortage has been oversold and over-rated - like most hysterias.

like the second coming of christ which is one of your hysterias Cheesy

they fulfill the needs of 80% of commutes and plugin hybrids like the GM Volt will take care of the whingers like yourself. Just need to get them to people at resonable prices. They will come down in price just as flat screen TV's have Wink

The days of driving a V8 guzzler from one end of a country to another are over. Nobody except a loser would do that instead of getting on a plane Wink

You can't stop at picnic areas and tourist attractions on a plane nail...

and in a country the size of ours there are plenty of places further than 100km away that you cant get to by plane. Ive driven to Melbourne many times. Ive only ever flown to Perth but Ive driven to Brisbane and stopped off at various places along the way. If I had an EV it would have taken a month to get there.

the GM Volt will do what you want and it has to come down in price to compete with Toyota hybrids Wink

SO WHEN ARE YOU BUYING ONE, LOSERNAIL?

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #35 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 6:11pm

Sir Spot of Borg wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:53pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:40pm:

Sir Spot of Borg wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:34pm:

Quote:

Electric cars are no alternative to petrol cars as they simply dont do the job.

what job dont they do? Speeding? We should slow down anyway why all this high powered crap we arent allowed to use anyway?

Canberra there are a lot of electric cars.

Quote:

we were supposed to run out of petrol completely in 1983.

We are going to run out sooner or later. When do you think?

SOB

no there arent. damn, you are a stupid poster. you just make stuff up or recall some dream you were having and thought it was real.

http://www.actewagl.com.au/Environment/Environmental-initiatives/Green-energy-fo...

http://canberraev.org/

http://www.betterplace.com.au/media/media-releases/better-place-wires-up-the-nov...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fcanberra-powers-ahead-with-electric...

now answer my question kvnt

We are going to run out sooner or later. When do you think?

SOB

maybe the definition of 'a lot' is what confuses you 20 EVs is not 'a lot' for a major city.

moron.

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #36 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 6:12pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 3:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:39pm:

youve obviously not been in a plane very often. one out of 3 get a 6inch window to see a probably cloud covered landscape and the view from 35,000 feet is impressive for about 10 minutes. after that you dont see anything you havent already seen before.

You've never flown before, have you?

so lets kill off EV's simply because you can't guarantee a good window seat in a plane Cheesy

LOL

what a wanker !!

whan are YOU buying an EV, you dimwitted toad?

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Sir Spot of Borg

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Re: What happens when we run out of oil?
Reply #37 - Jul 30^th, 2012 at 6:18pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 6:11pm:

Sir Spot of Borg wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:53pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:40pm:

Sir Spot of Borg wrote on Jul 30^th, 2012 at 12:34pm:

Quote:

Electric cars are no alternative to petrol cars as they simply dont do the job.

what job dont they do? Speeding? We should slow down anyway why all this high powered crap we arent allowed to use anyway?

Canberra there are a lot of electric cars.

Quote:

we were supposed to run out of petrol completely in 1983.

We are going to run out sooner or later. When do you think?

SOB

no there arent. damn, you are a stupid poster. you just make stuff up or recall some dream you were having and thought it was real.

maybe the definition of 'a lot' is what confuses you 20 EVs is not 'a lot' for a major city.

moron.

There are more than 20 and canberra is a pretty small city. You see them all the time.

ANSWER MY QUESTION DIMWIT.

SOB

Whaaaaaah!
I'm a
Moron!

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