I was totally surprised on the huge impact on coal fired generation.  The interesting thing is that the carbon tax should have had about a $23 per Megawatt impact on coal generated electricity. In fact, the cost impact is not evenly distributed. Ironically, the highest impact has been in South Australia, even though they have more gas generation.

In Queensland, which has the highest proportion of coal -fired generation, the increased cost per MW is a bit less than expected. That's because there is currently a higher demand for gas generation (and solar PV etc), and a lower demand for coal-fired electricity. The market price is therefore less that would have been expected. Currently, there is something like 1800MW of Solar PV electricity generated in Australia, which is comparable to a medium-sized power station.  It will be interesting to see what happens in summer with the increased load.

Climate change has moved into a new and dangerous phase. The Arctic has been warming two to three times faster than the rest of the world. In the past few weeks, melting of the Arctic sea ice has accelerated dramatically, reducing the area and volume to levels never previously experienced. About 80 per cent of the summer sea-ice has been lost since 1979; on current trends the Arctic will be ice-free in summer by 2015 and ice-free all year by 2030 - events that were not expected to occur for another 100 years. More concerning, the Greenland ice sheet this year has had unprecedented melting, adding to a trend that will substantially increase sea levels.

Beyond the Arctic, the world is in the fifth year of a severe food crisis - largely climate change driven - that is about to become far worse as the full impact of extreme drought in the US food bowl works its way through the global food chain, leading to price rises from which Australia will not be immune. Drought around the Mediterranean contributed to this and has played a big part in triggering the Arab Spring. Globally, the escalation of extreme weather continues.

Science is clearly linking these events to climate change, with human carbon emissions as the prime cause.

The polar icecaps are one of the vital regulators of global climate; if the ice disappears, the absorption of more solar radiation accelerates ocean warming, with increasing risk of large-scale release of carbon dioxide and methane from melting permafrost. This may initiate irreversible runaway warming.
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Global energy, food and water security are also poised on a knife edge. These changes are occurring at the 0.8 degrees increase, relative to pre-industrial conditions already experienced, let alone the extra 1.2 degrees that probably will result from our historic emissions.

The "official" target of limiting temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees is way too high. Current policies, such as our Clean Energy Future package, are far worse and would result in a 4 degrees-plus temperature rise. Official panaceas, such as carbon capture and storage, are not working.

Australian leaders glibly talk about adapting to a 4-degree world with little idea of what it means - which is a world of 1 billion people rather than the present 7 billion.

We know how to establish a genuine low-carbon economy, which would stave off the worst impacts of climate change, but it is too late for gradual implementation. It has to be set up at emergency speed.

Yet we hear nothing of this from the political, business or NGO institutions that should be leading the response. Why? Financial incentives are the main culprit, in particular the bonus culture that has spread through Australian business since the early 1990s.

The damage caused by this culture threatens the very foundations of democratic society. Few directors or executives are prepared to give serious attention to long-term issues such as climate change when their rewards are based almost entirely on short-term performance.

Many privately agree that climate change needs far more urgent action, but few are prepared to speak out for fear of derailing "business as usual". This is a fundamental failure of governance - directors have a fiduciary responsibility to objectively assess the critical risks to which their companies are exposed and take action to ensure these risks are adequately managed. But if they acknowledge climate change as a serious risk, they are bound to act, which requires a radical redirection of Australian business away from our addiction to high-carbon coal and gas, our most powerful vested interests losing out in the process. Better, then, to stick to absolute denial, irrespective of the consequences.

This flows through to politicians, non government organisations and the bureaucracy, who are subjected to immense pressure from the corporate sector not to rock the boat. The chorus is picked up with vehemence by a compliant media and shock jocks, the result being politically expedient and contradictory climate policy.

Adversarial politics and corporate myopia are incapable of addressing life-threatening climate change. The community must go around these barriers and demand leaders take urgent action before the poisoned chalice we pass to our grandchildren becomes even more toxic.

Ian Dunlop chaired the Australian Coal Association 1987-1988 and Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissions Trading 1998-2000.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/fourdegree-rise-demands-90degre...