gold_medal wrote on Dec 18
th, 2012 at 8:40am:
Breaking news from the US – h/t Watts Up With That? – where a leaked draft of the IPCC's latest report AR5 admits what some of us have suspected for a very long time: that the case for man-made global warming is looking weaker by the day and that the sun plays a much more significant role in "climate change" than the scientific "consensus" has previously been prepared to concede.
Here's the killer admission:
Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.
As the leaker explains, this is a game-changer:
The admission of strong evidence for enhanced solar forcing changes everything. The climate alarmists can’t continue to claim that warming was almost entirely due to human activity over a period when solar warming effects, now acknowledged to be important, were at a maximum. The final draft of AR5 WG1 is not scheduled to be released for another year but the public needs to know now how the main premises and conclusions of the IPCC story line have been undercut by the IPCC itself.
Over to you greentards. I look forward to reading your extravagant apologias as to why this is a story of no significance and that it's business as usual for the great Climate Change Ponzi scheme.
Hmmm, more Longy -
C
redible
R
eliable
A
bundant
P
aradoxesLeaked IPCC report reaffirms dangerous climate change
A draft of a major report on climate change, due to be published next year, has been leaked online. Climate-sceptic bloggers have seized on it, claiming that it admits that much of global warming has been caused by the sun's variability, not by greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the report says nothing of the kind.
Rawls highlights a paragraph on page 43 of chapter 7, which he calls "a killing admission that completely undercuts the main premise and the main conclusion of the full report, revealing the fundamental dishonesty of the whole".
Cosmic influenceThe paragraph discusses the purported effects of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) on Earth's climate. We know that the sun's activity, or solar irradiance, varies on an 11-year cycle, and at its peak it can slightly raise global temperatures. GCRs could, in theory, amplify the effects of the solar cycle and lead to even more warming.
Rawls highlights this sentence from the IPCC draft report: "The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link."
Essentially, this says that observed changes in the sun's brightness over the last century have been small, and that their apparent effects on Earth's climate have been larger than might be expected. Therefore, you might think that some other mechanism was amplifying the sun's effects – such as the aforementioned cosmic rays.
Rawls claims this means that the sun's effects on Earth's climate have been much larger than climate scientists have been prepared to admit, and that the sun could therefore be the reason for the warming Earth has experienced in the last century. He writes: "Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing."
Wishful scepticsClimate scientists are lining up to debunk this claim, and to explain that the bloggers have simply got it wrong. "They're misunderstanding, either deliberately or otherwise, what that sentence is meant to say," says solar expert Joanna Haigh of Imperial College London.
Haigh says that if Rawls had read a bit further, he would have realised that the report goes on to largely dismiss the evidence that cosmic rays have a significant effect. "They conclude there's very little evidence that it has any effect," she says.
In fact, the report summary reaffirms that humanity's greenhouse gas emissions are the main reason for rising temperatures. It goes on to detail the many harmful effects, from more frequent heatwaves to rising sea levels.
What the sun doesHaigh points out that the sun actually began dimming slightly in the mid-1980s, if we take an average over its 11-year cycle, so fewer GCRs should have been deflected from Earth and more Earth-cooling clouds should have formed. "If there were some way cosmic rays could be causing global climate change, it should have started getting colder after 1985." The last three decades have seen continuing warming, with the last decade the warmest on record.
"If they can look at a short section of a report and walk away believing it says the opposite of what it actually says, and if this spin can be uncritically echoed by very influential blogs, imagine how wildly they are misinterpreting the scientific evidence."
Link -
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23005-leaked-ipcc-report-reaffirms-dangero...
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