Australian Politics Forum - Embarrassment for the climate alarmists

The_Barnacle

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #225 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:08pm

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 11:56am:

NASA finally breaking free of their embarrassing co2 only climate change rhetoric.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

It is a start. Finally some real science from real scientists.

Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem. To make progress, the NRC had to assemble dozens of experts from many fields at a single workshop. The report summarizes their combined efforts to frame the problem in a truly multi-disciplinary context.

One of the participants, Greg Kopp of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, pointed out that while the variations in luminosity over the 11-year solar cycle amount to only a tenth of a percent of the sun's total output, such a small fraction is still important. "Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth's core) combined," he says.

Of particular importance is the sun's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun’s output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere.

Several researchers discussed how changes in the upper atmosphere can trickle down to Earth's surface. There are many "top-down" pathways for the sun's influence. For instance, Charles Jackman of the Goddard Space Flight Center described how nitrogen oxides (NOx) created by solar energetic particles and cosmic rays in the stratosphere could reduce ozone levels by a few percent. Because ozone absorbs UV radiation, less ozone means that more UV rays from the sun would reach Earth's surface.

Isaac Held of NOAA took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it. "The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause,” he explains. “This alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies." In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.

Many of the mechanisms proposed at the workshop had a Rube Goldberg-like quality. They relied on multi-step interactions between multiples layers of atmosphere and ocean, some relying on chemistry to get their work done, others leaning on thermodynamics or fluid physics. But just because something is complicated doesn't mean it's not real.

Indeed, Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.

The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific.

http://climaterealists.com/?id=10912

1. NASA has NEVER claimed that CO2 is the only thing that produces climate change, but that it is ONE of the things that produces climate change.

2. The 11 year sunspot cycle is well known and is part of the reason for the short term "noise" on the temperature graphs. It is irrelevant when considering the trend of warming over the past 100 years.

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progressiveslol

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #226 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:12pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:08pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 11:56am:

NASA finally breaking free of their embarrassing co2 only climate change rhetoric.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

It is a start. Finally some real science from real scientists.

Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem. To make progress, the NRC had to assemble dozens of experts from many fields at a single workshop. The report summarizes their combined efforts to frame the problem in a truly multi-disciplinary context.

One of the participants, Greg Kopp of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, pointed out that while the variations in luminosity over the 11-year solar cycle amount to only a tenth of a percent of the sun's total output, such a small fraction is still important. "Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth's core) combined," he says.

Of particular importance is the sun's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun’s output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere.

Several researchers discussed how changes in the upper atmosphere can trickle down to Earth's surface. There are many "top-down" pathways for the sun's influence. For instance, Charles Jackman of the Goddard Space Flight Center described how nitrogen oxides (NOx) created by solar energetic particles and cosmic rays in the stratosphere could reduce ozone levels by a few percent. Because ozone absorbs UV radiation, less ozone means that more UV rays from the sun would reach Earth's surface.

Isaac Held of NOAA took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it. "The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause,” he explains. “This alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies." In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.

Many of the mechanisms proposed at the workshop had a Rube Goldberg-like quality. They relied on multi-step interactions between multiples layers of atmosphere and ocean, some relying on chemistry to get their work done, others leaning on thermodynamics or fluid physics. But just because something is complicated doesn't mean it's not real.

Indeed, Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.

The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific.

http://climaterealists.com/?id=10912

1. NASA has NEVER claimed that CO2 is the only thing that produces climate change, but that it is ONE of the things that produces climate change.

2. The 11 year sunspot cycle is well known and is part of the reason for the short term "noise" on the temperature graphs. It is irrelevant when considering the trend of warming over the past 100 years.

Yeh thats why it has taken up till now to get serious about anything but co2. You fool yourself, no-one else.

The 11 year is not the only sun-climate connection.

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buzzanddidj

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #227 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 8:16pm

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 5^th, 2013 at 12:12pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 11:15am:

the invalidity of these arguments are easy to prove.

temperatures arent rising and if your theories say they should then they are provably wrong. it really IS that simple.

But temeperatures ARE rising.

The planet IS getting warmer.

Each decade is warmer than the previous decade.

That is what "getting warmer" means.

Theory says the planets temperature should rise - an that is exactly what is happening. This is evidenced not only though surface temperature measurements, but also in ocean temperatures, glacial mass balance decrease, arctic sea ice decrease and sea level rise.

The plant is unambiguously warming.

Denying it is silly

A few INDISPUTABLE, UNDENIABLE FACTS

■The hottest average maximum temperature ever recorded across Australia – 40.33 degrees, was set on Monday, January 7, 2013 - surpassing the old record of 40.17 °C set in 1976. (Bureau of Meteorology)

■The number of consecutive days where the national average maximum daily temperature exceeded 39°C has also been broken this week—seven (7) days (between 2–8 January 2013), almost doubling the previous record of four (4) consecutive days in 1973, (BOM)

■According to the National Climate Data Centre, nine of the 10 hottest years on record have been since 2000 (the other is 1998).

■While temperatures vary on a local and regional scale, globally it has now been 27 years since the world experienced a month that was colder than average. "If you’re 27 or younger, you’ve never experienced a colder-than-average month" - Philip Bump, Grist, November 16, 2012.

■The CSIRO has found Australian annual average daily maximum temperatures have steadily increased in the last hundred years, with most of the warming trend occurring since 1970.

■The Bushfire CRC (Cooperative Research Centre) says large areas of southern Australia, from the east coast to the west coast, face “above average fire potential” in the summer of 2012-13. According to the Climate Institute extreme fire danger days are expected to rise more than 15 per cent in south-eastern Australia.

■The last four months of 2012 - globally - were the hottest on record. (British Met Office) and 2012 was the hottest year the continental United States of America has ever recorded.("2012 Was the Hottest Year in U.S. History. And Yes - It's Climate Change", Bryan Walsh, TIME 8 January, 2013).

■The hot-dry trend is expected to continue, with the Climate Commission predicting large increases in the number of days over 35°C this century.

■Around the world, 2013 could be the hottest ever recorded by modern instrumentation, according to a recent study by Britain’s Met Office. If that turns out to be accurate, 2013 would surpass the previous record, held jointly by 2005 and 2010.

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gold_medal

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #228 - Jan 11^th, 2013 at 11:58am

The_Barnacle wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:08pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 11:56am:

NASA finally breaking free of their embarrassing co2 only climate change rhetoric.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

It is a start. Finally some real science from real scientists.

Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem. To make progress, the NRC had to assemble dozens of experts from many fields at a single workshop. The report summarizes their combined efforts to frame the problem in a truly multi-disciplinary context.

One of the participants, Greg Kopp of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, pointed out that while the variations in luminosity over the 11-year solar cycle amount to only a tenth of a percent of the sun's total output, such a small fraction is still important. "Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth's core) combined," he says.

Of particular importance is the sun's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, which peaks during the years around solar maximum. Within the relatively narrow band of EUV wavelengths, the sun’s output varies not by a minuscule 0.1%, but by whopping factors of 10 or more. This can strongly affect the chemistry and thermal structure of the upper atmosphere.

Several researchers discussed how changes in the upper atmosphere can trickle down to Earth's surface. There are many "top-down" pathways for the sun's influence. For instance, Charles Jackman of the Goddard Space Flight Center described how nitrogen oxides (NOx) created by solar energetic particles and cosmic rays in the stratosphere could reduce ozone levels by a few percent. Because ozone absorbs UV radiation, less ozone means that more UV rays from the sun would reach Earth's surface.

Isaac Held of NOAA took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it. "The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause,” he explains. “This alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies." In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.

Many of the mechanisms proposed at the workshop had a Rube Goldberg-like quality. They relied on multi-step interactions between multiples layers of atmosphere and ocean, some relying on chemistry to get their work done, others leaning on thermodynamics or fluid physics. But just because something is complicated doesn't mean it's not real.

Indeed, Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.

The solar cycle signals are so strong in the Pacific, that Meehl and colleagues have begun to wonder if something in the Pacific climate system is acting to amplify them. "One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system ... is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific." Using supercomputer models of climate, they show that not only "top-down" but also "bottom-up" mechanisms involving atmosphere-ocean interactions are required to amplify solar forcing at the surface of the Pacific.

http://climaterealists.com/?id=10912

1. NASA has NEVER claimed that CO2 is the only thing that produces climate change, but that it is ONE of the things that produces climate change.
2. The 11 year sunspot cycle is well known and is part of the reason for the short term "noise" on the temperature graphs. It is irrelevant when considering the trend of warming over the past 100 years.

thats why we have Methane Tax and why we don't talk about decarbonising but rather....

yeah right. CO2 is ALL anyone ever talks about except at the periphery.

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gold_medal

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #229 - Jan 11^th, 2013 at 11:59am

buzzanddidj wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 8:16pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 5^th, 2013 at 12:12pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 11:15am:

the invalidity of these arguments are easy to prove.

temperatures arent rising and if your theories say they should then they are provably wrong. it really IS that simple.

But temeperatures ARE rising.

The planet IS getting warmer.

Each decade is warmer than the previous decade.

That is what "getting warmer" means.

Theory says the planets temperature should rise - an that is exactly what is happening. This is evidenced not only though surface temperature measurements, but also in ocean temperatures, glacial mass balance decrease, arctic sea ice decrease and sea level rise.

The plant is unambiguously warming.

Denying it is silly

A few INDISPUTABLE, UNDENIABLE FACTS

■The hottest average maximum temperature ever recorded across Australia – 40.33 degrees, was set on Monday, January 7, 2013 - surpassing the old record of 40.17 °C set in 1976. (Bureau of Meteorology)

■The number of consecutive days where the national average maximum daily temperature exceeded 39°C has also been broken this week—seven (7) days (between 2–8 January 2013), almost doubling the previous record of four (4) consecutive days in 1973, (BOM)

■According to the National Climate Data Centre, nine of the 10 hottest years on record have been since 2000 (the other is 1998).

■While temperatures vary on a local and regional scale, globally it has now been 27 years since the world experienced a month that was colder than average. "If you’re 27 or younger, you’ve never experienced a colder-than-average month" - Philip Bump, Grist, November 16, 2012.

■The CSIRO has found Australian annual average daily maximum temperatures have steadily increased in the last hundred years, with most of the warming trend occurring since 1970.

■The Bushfire CRC (Cooperative Research Centre) says large areas of southern Australia, from the east coast to the west coast, face “above average fire potential” in the summer of 2012-13. According to the Climate Institute extreme fire danger days are expected to rise more than 15 per cent in south-eastern Australia.

■The last four months of 2012 - globally - were the hottest on record. (British Met Office) and 2012 was the hottest year the continental United States of America has ever recorded.("2012 Was the Hottest Year in U.S. History. And Yes - It's Climate Change", Bryan Walsh, TIME 8 January, 2013).

■The hot-dry trend is expected to continue, with the Climate Commission predicting large increases in the number of days over 35°C this century.

■Around the world, 2013 could be the hottest ever recorded by modern instrumentation, according to a recent study by Britain’s Met Office. If that turns out to be accurate, 2013 would surpass the previous record, held jointly by 2005 and 2010.

come back to us when you want to also list the COLDEST termperatures.

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cods

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #230 - Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:20pm

come back to us when you want to also list the COLDEST termperatures.
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hilarious.... the thing is they overlook the words..

""ever recorded""...

WHAT HAPPENED TO WEATHER/CLIMATE BEFORE THEY STARTED RECORDING.?..

guess we didnt have any before then.. because certainly from where I see it.. the scientists dont seem to worry about that..

I guess it was all in the hands of dear old Mother Nature then...

and now mankind has taken over the running of the climate

since we started records of course..

boy here I was taught at school that all the coal formed thanks to burning trees over millions of years....what a load of rubbish. trees didnt burn down did they?

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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #231 - Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:22pm

cods wrote on Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:20pm:

come back to us when you want to also list the COLDEST termperatures.
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hilarious.... the thing is they overlook the words..

""ever recorded""...

WHAT HAPPENED TO WEATHER/CLIMATE BEFORE THEY STARTED RECORDING.?..

guess we didnt have any before then.. because certainly from where I see it.. the scientists dont seem to worry about that..

I guess it was all in the hands of dear old Mother Nature then...

and now mankind has taken over the running of the climate

since we started records of course..

boy here I was taught at school that all the coal formed thanks to burning trees over millions of years....what a load of rubbish. trees didnt burn down did they?

go back in time and find out, then tell us cuddles.

The rest of us can deal with the figures and numbers we have, as opposed to using an argument for what's not available being what determines if we should act or not.

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« Last Edit: Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:39pm by sir prince duke alevine »

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 137490 Gender:	Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists Reply #232 - Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:35pm cods wrote on Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:20pm: ... and now mankind has taken over the running of the climate since we started records of course. The alarmists also like to use ice cores and tree rings to support their "argument" (before we started records). It's even funnier when you say it out loud.
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gold_medal

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Re: Embarrassment for the climate alarmists
Reply #233 - Jan 11^th, 2013 at 4:32pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:35pm:

cods wrote on Jan 11^th, 2013 at 12:20pm:

... and now mankind has taken over the running of the climate

since we started records of course.

The alarmists also like to use ice cores and tree rings to support their "argument" (before we started records).

It's even funnier when you say it out loud. Grin

the argument re tree rings as a valid proxy is quite ferocious. did you know that paleo-climatologists actually seriously believe in 'tele-connection' that trees hundreds of kms away can communicate their temperature??? THIS is the so-called 'science' we are expected to take seriously - telepathic, sensient trees.

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