gold_medal wrote on Jan 1
st, 2013 at 9:21am:
MOTR wrote on Dec 31
st, 2012 at 6:15pm:
Maqqa wrote on Dec 31
st, 2012 at 5:08pm:
gold_medal wrote on Dec 31
st, 2012 at 4:08pm:
do you notice how MOTR runs away from discussion of any claim about no temperature rises once an opponetn shows facts???
you are a huge disappointment MOTR. I thought you might be a credible debater but instead you are justa cheer-squad member and and ideology to support.
and the unwise one
I'll always answer a direct question when I notice it. I don't recall any direct evidence that suggests their is a downward trend in global temperatures. Since the 1950s, every decade has been warmer than the last. The most obvious way to look for the trend is to take away known short term drivers. Take the short term noise away and we a left we a very clear trend. The argument that there has been a plateauing or a reversal in the long term trend is very weak indeed.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/FR11_All.gifI know progs will froth at the adjusted data because he doesn't seem to believe in the El Niño effect either.
im not a great fan of 'adjusted data' either. in fact, it is part of the hysterics modus operandi to 'alter' data but often invalidly or with intent to prove a point. Even here you are quoting stats that conveniently leave out data. Climate is the sum of ALL the facts and in the real world you cant eliminate the factors yu dont understand or dont like. bottom line is that the temperature now is identical to the temperature 16 years ago.
You are completely missing the thrust of the argument. The period of time immediately surrounding the El Niño event of 1997/1998 was cooler than it is today. The spike in temperatures, well above the underlying trend, is explained by a very well known driver of short term climate. You are missing the wood for the trees, goldie.
See how 1998 sticks out like dogs balls
Throughout the period of significant warming which we experienced in the later half of the 20th Century, there have been numerous points which can be cherry picked to demonstrate a superficial cooling trend. The rise in temperatures is not monotonic, quite well understood short term drivers will create noise. To get to the underlying long term trend you need to remove the short term noise. This exercise is not about eliminating drivers you don't understand it is actually factoring them into your analysis.
One way to do it is to separate El Niño, La Niña and neutral years. So what is the trend in these three groups? I'm glad you were curious enough to ask, goldie.
Another method is to remove the known and well understood short term drivers.
So your whole argument is based on ignoring the short term impact of these short term drivers.