Australian Politics Forum - Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.

gold_medal

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #45 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:09am

The Doran survey was a joke surely. TWO QUESTIONS on which we are supposed to make the claim that consensus exists??? two poorly constructed question with no check question and no external validation? and of course MASSIVE self-selection bias.

by any determination the doran survey is worthless. and even if it were a good survey, in what discipline would you claim consensus on the basis of 77 responses??? you get that on a survey HERE!!!!

consensus... the alarmists alternative to evidence.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #46 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:37am

gold_medal wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:06am:

adelcrow wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 7:16am:

All deniers have is misrepresenting the facts and until there are thousands of peer reviewed papers supporting the denialists arguments thats all they will ever have.
Cmon..with all the money the fossil fuel industry is throwing at the denialists surely they can get a few thousand peer reviewed papers up and running...or how about a few hundred if thats the best they can do.

ah.. adelcrow - the new skippy. no content, just disagreement and abuse. what a waste.

Well, IF anyone is looking for an expert on those qualities, THEN perhaps I could suggest YOU, to provide some tips.

Btw, the definition of an Expert -
Someone, who was formerly a DRIP and who is now under pressure.

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progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings. Reply #47 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:42am This is how you win a horse race. Follow AGW loons system Did we catch every single scenario lol If it gets cooler, we can always rely on our mates to cool the past and warm the present.
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MOTR

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #48 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:55am

gold_medal wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:09am:

The Doran survey was a joke surely. TWO QUESTIONS on which we are supposed to make the claim that consensus exists??? two poorly constructed question with no check question and no external validation? and of course MASSIVE self-selection bias.

by any determination the doran survey is worthless. and even if it were a good survey, in what discipline would you claim consensus on the basis of 77 responses??? you get that on a survey HERE!!!!

consensus... the alarmists alternative to evidence.

Yeah, we have a sample of 77 published climatologists that regularly visit this forum.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #49 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:58am

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 7:11am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 6:09am:

So what makes you think Antarctica is getting colder, progs?

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2786

I cant seem to get my ice to melt at -20 degrees C

What is the margin of error in the temps? A whole 50% I would suggest it is much worse than that, but in any case, it isnt a temperature measure to be relied upon to any degree.

Prog's homespun science, trumps the research coming from real scientists in his little world.

Quote:

Antarctic ice melting from warm water below

Antarctica's massive ice shelves are shrinking because they are being eaten away from below by warm water, a new study finds. That suggests that future sea levels could rise faster than many scientists have been predicting.

The western chunk of Antarctica is losing 23 feet (seven metres) of its floating ice sheet each year. Until now, scientists weren't exactly sure how it was happening and whether or how man-made global warming might be a factor. The answer, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is that climate change plays an indirect role — but one that has larger repercussions than if Antarctic ice were merely melting from warmer air.

Hamish Pritchard, a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey, said research using an ice-gazing NASA satellite showed that warmer air alone couldn't explain what was happening to Antarctica. A more detailed examination found a chain of events that explained the shrinking ice shelves.
Advertisement

Twenty ice shelves showed signs that they were melting from warm water below. Changes in wind currents pushed that relatively warmer water closer to and beneath the floating ice shelves. The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/antarctic-ice-melting-from-warm...

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« Last Edit: Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:05am by MOTR »

Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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progressiveslol

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #50 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:02am

Left it long enough.

Now see what really happened

They hid the decline!
In the first graph, observational data ends about 2011 or 12. In the second graph though, it ends about 2007 or 8. There are four or five years of observational data missing from the second graph. Fortunately the two graphs are scaled identically which makes it very easy to use a highly sophisticated tool called “cut and paste” to move the observational data from the first graph to the second graph and see what it should have looked like:

Well oops. Once one brings the observational data up to date, it turns out that we are currently below the entire range of models in the 5% to 95% confidence range across all emission scenarios
. The light gray shading is for RCP 4.5, the most likely emission scenario. But we’re also below the dark gray which is all emission scenarios for all models, including the ones where we strangle the global economy.

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progressiveslol

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #51 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:07am

It gets worse.

I did a little back of the envelope math (OK, OK, a spreadsheet, who has envelopes anymore these days?) and calculated that, assuming a linear warming starting today, we’d need to get to 1.58 degrees above the reference period to get an average of +1.0 over the course of the reference period itself. If my calcs are correct, extrapolating a straight line from end of current observations through 1.6 degrees in 2035 ought to just catch the top of that black bar showing the “Likely Range” in the centre of the graph:

But now it is even worse for the IPCC. To meet the upper bound of their estimated range, the IPCC would need warming that (according to their own data) is below projections for all their models in all emission scenarios to suddenly increase to a rate higher than all their projections from all their models across all emission scenarios. In brief, the upper range of their estimate cannot be supported by their own data from their own models.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/30/ar5-chapter-11-hiding-the-decline-part-ii/

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progressiveslol

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #52 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:08am

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:58am:

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 7:11am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 6:09am:

So what makes you think Antarctica is getting colder, progs?

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2786

I cant seem to get my ice to melt at -20 degrees C

What is the margin of error in the temps? A whole 50% I would suggest it is much worse than that, but in any case, it isnt a temperature measure to be relied upon to any degree.

Prog's homespun science, trumps the research coming from real scientists in his little world.

Quote:

Antarctic ice melting from warm water below

Antarctica's massive ice shelves are shrinking because they are being eaten away from below by warm water, a new study finds. That suggests that future sea levels could rise faster than many scientists have been predicting.

The western chunk of Antarctica is losing 23 feet (seven metres) of its floating ice sheet each year. Until now, scientists weren't exactly sure how it was happening and whether or how man-made global warming might be a factor. The answer, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is that climate change plays an indirect role — but one that has larger repercussions than if Antarctic ice were merely melting from warmer air.

Hamish Pritchard, a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey, said research using an ice-gazing NASA satellite showed that warmer air alone couldn't explain what was happening to Antarctica. A more detailed examination found a chain of events that explained the shrinking ice shelves.
Advertisement

Twenty ice shelves showed signs that they were melting from warm water below. Changes in wind currents pushed that relatively warmer water closer to and beneath the floating ice shelves. The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/antarctic-ice-melting-from-warm...

Hate to break it to you, but melting ice in water, does nothing for water level. Where is your science coming from.

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings. Reply #53 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:12am As long as it sounds sophisticated and appears to create doubt about warming or an anthropogenic forcing, progs will paste it.
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progressiveslol

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #54 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:14am

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:12am:

As long as it sounds sophisticated and appears to create doubt about warming or an anthropogenic forcing, progs will paste it.

Yeh thats a good rebuttal. So tell us all how ice floating on water and melting, changes the water level. Would love to hear this new scientific evidence.

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MOTR

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #55 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:14am

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:08am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:58am:

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 7:11am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 6:09am:

So what makes you think Antarctica is getting colder, progs?

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2786

I cant seem to get my ice to melt at -20 degrees C

What is the margin of error in the temps? A whole 50% I would suggest it is much worse than that, but in any case, it isnt a temperature measure to be relied upon to any degree.

Prog's homespun science, trumps the research coming from real scientists in his little world.

Quote:

Antarctic ice melting from warm water below

Antarctica's massive ice shelves are shrinking because they are being eaten away from below by warm water, a new study finds. That suggests that future sea levels could rise faster than many scientists have been predicting.

The western chunk of Antarctica is losing 23 feet (seven metres) of its floating ice sheet each year. Until now, scientists weren't exactly sure how it was happening and whether or how man-made global warming might be a factor. The answer, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is that climate change plays an indirect role — but one that has larger repercussions than if Antarctic ice were merely melting from warmer air.

Hamish Pritchard, a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey, said research using an ice-gazing NASA satellite showed that warmer air alone couldn't explain what was happening to Antarctica. A more detailed examination found a chain of events that explained the shrinking ice shelves.
Advertisement

Twenty ice shelves showed signs that they were melting from warm water below. Changes in wind currents pushed that relatively warmer water closer to and beneath the floating ice shelves. The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/antarctic-ice-melting-from-warm...

Hate to break it to you, but melting ice in water, does nothing for water level. Where is your science coming from.

Hard to believe those dunderheads could get something so simple wrong. Stupid dumb scientists.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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FRED.

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #56 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:17am

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:14am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:12am:

As long as it sounds sophisticated and appears to create doubt about warming or an anthropogenic forcing, progs will paste it.

Yeh thats a good rebuttal. So tell us all how ice floating on water and melting, changes the water level. Would love to hear this new scientific evidence.

Don't put ICE in your drink when it melts it flows all over the bar Wink

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progressiveslol

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #57 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:18am

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:14am:

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:08am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 8:58am:

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 7:11am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 6:09am:

So what makes you think Antarctica is getting colder, progs?

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2786

I cant seem to get my ice to melt at -20 degrees C

What is the margin of error in the temps? A whole 50% I would suggest it is much worse than that, but in any case, it isnt a temperature measure to be relied upon to any degree.

Prog's homespun science, trumps the research coming from real scientists in his little world.

Quote:

Antarctic ice melting from warm water below

Antarctica's massive ice shelves are shrinking because they are being eaten away from below by warm water, a new study finds. That suggests that future sea levels could rise faster than many scientists have been predicting.

The western chunk of Antarctica is losing 23 feet (seven metres) of its floating ice sheet each year. Until now, scientists weren't exactly sure how it was happening and whether or how man-made global warming might be a factor. The answer, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is that climate change plays an indirect role — but one that has larger repercussions than if Antarctic ice were merely melting from warmer air.

Hamish Pritchard, a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey, said research using an ice-gazing NASA satellite showed that warmer air alone couldn't explain what was happening to Antarctica. A more detailed examination found a chain of events that explained the shrinking ice shelves.
Advertisement

Twenty ice shelves showed signs that they were melting from warm water below. Changes in wind currents pushed that relatively warmer water closer to and beneath the floating ice shelves. The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/antarctic-ice-melting-from-warm...

Hate to break it to you, but melting ice in water, does nothing for water level. Where is your science coming from.

Hard to believe those dunderheads could get something so simple wrong. Stupid dumb scientists.

Did you see their explanation for this new phenomenon of melting floating ice causing water levels to change? I missed it.

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MOTR

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #58 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:29am

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/20100108_Is_Antarctica_Melting.html

Quote:

The retreat of West Antarctica's glaciers is being accelerated by ice shelf collapse. Ice shelves are the part of a glacier that extends past the grounding line towards the ocean they are the most vulnerable to warming seas. A longstanding theory in glaciology is that these ice shelves tend to buttress (support the end wall of) glaciers, with their mass slowing the ice movement towards the sea, and this was confirmed by the spectacular collapse of the Rhode Island-sized Larsen B shelf along the Eastern edge of the Antarctic Peninsula in 2002. The disintegration, which was caught on camera by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imaging instruments on board its Terra and Aqua satellites, was dramatic: it took just three weeks to crumble a 12,000-year old ice shelf. Over the next few years, satellite radar data showed that some of the ice streams flowing behind Larsen B had accelerated significantly, while others, still supported by smaller ice shelves, had not 9. This dynamic process of ice flowing downhill to the sea is what enables Antarctica to continue losing mass even as surface melting declines.

Michael Schodlok, a JPL scientist who models the way ice shelves and the ocean interact, says melting of the underside of the shelf is a pre-requisite to these collapses. Thinning of the ice shelf reduces its buttressing effect on the glacier behind it, allowing glacier flow to speed up. The thinner shelf is also more likely to crack. In the summer, meltwater ponds on the surface can drain into the cracks. Since liquid water is denser than solid ice, enough meltwater on the surface can open the cracks up deeper down into the ice, leading to disintegration of the shelf. The oceans surrounding Antarctica have been warming 10, so Schodlok doesn't doubt that the ice shelves are being undermined by warmer water being brought up from the depths. But he admits that it hasn't been proven rigorously, because satellites can’t measure underneath the ice.

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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MOTR

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Re: Deniers nailed misrepresenting IPCC findings.
Reply #59 - Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:37am

FRED. wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:17am:

progressiveslol wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:14am:

MOTR wrote on Dec 31^st, 2012 at 9:12am:

As long as it sounds sophisticated and appears to create doubt about warming or an anthropogenic forcing, progs will paste it.

Yeh thats a good rebuttal. So tell us all how ice floating on water and melting, changes the water level. Would love to hear this new scientific evidence.

Don't put ICE in your drink when it melts it flows all over the bar Wink

Looks like you've got a buddy, progs. If you read what the scientists are saying you'll find this particular analogy doesn't fit the situation.

Don't ever add ice to a drink full to the brim, you'll get your coaster wet. Wink

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Hunt says Coalition accepts IPCC findings

"What does this mean? It means that we need to do practical things that actually reduce emissions."

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