Australian Politics Forum - We owe $4.8 trillion

Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #105 - Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 11:13pm

freediver wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 10:52pm:

LOL - 40%. That is hardly 'come to bear'. Most economists could have made a more accurate guess with about 5 minute's thought. The only thing that makes Keen stand out is how badly he got it wrong.

1.3 trillion in housing debt !! Are you kidding me !! It's only a matter of time before keen is vindicated !!

For starters when keen made that prediction he didn't allow for labors first home vendors boost which ended up making people pay more for housing and not the other way around Sad

Now they are drowning in a sea of debt. 1.3 trillion to be precise !!

But keen did get the retail slump right and I bet you wouldn't have believed it in 2008 when he made it. All financial predictions take time and labor's meddling with the first home vendors boost has just delayed the inevitable housing slump !!

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« Last Edit: Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 11:49pm by Sir lastnail »

In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #106 - Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 11:39pm

John Smith wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 7:52pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 7:28pm:

FD,
Quote:

Sure Bobby. If you don't know whether the mortgage is $10k and they are borrowing another $10k against the house to invest, or if it is $300k and steadily rising, or whether they are on $40k or $200k a year, then you know absolutely nothing at all about their situation, despite knowing that the mortgage is going up. I am not sure how many different ways I can say this. Likewise, you know absolutely nothing about Australia's debt situation if you cannot put the numbers in perspective. Merely pointing out that it is going up says nothing at all.

Hi FD,
I don't have as much trust in Wayne Swann's fiscal policies as you.

To me he acts like a drunken yobbo at a party who buys more beer
on his credit card to keep the party going.

and yet I would bet that were you at said party you would have no problem partaking of any beer.

there in lies the rub. that's exactly what people are doing with credit Sad

banks are throwing money at them to buy anything and they are grabbing it without thinking about the consequences !!

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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Sir Spot of Borg

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #107 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 5:41am

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 11:39pm:

John Smith wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 7:52pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2013 at 7:28pm:

FD,
Quote:

Sure Bobby. If you don't know whether the mortgage is $10k and they are borrowing another $10k against the house to invest, or if it is $300k and steadily rising, or whether they are on $40k or $200k a year, then you know absolutely nothing at all about their situation, despite knowing that the mortgage is going up. I am not sure how many different ways I can say this. Likewise, you know absolutely nothing about Australia's debt situation if you cannot put the numbers in perspective. Merely pointing out that it is going up says nothing at all.

Hi FD,
I don't have as much trust in Wayne Swann's fiscal policies as you.

To me he acts like a drunken yobbo at a party who buys more beer
on his credit card to keep the party going.

and yet I would bet that were you at said party you would have no problem partaking of any beer.

there in lies the rub. that's exactly what people are doing with credit Sad

banks are throwing money at them to buy anything and they are grabbing it without thinking about the consequences !!

Actually the banks dont throw it @ just anybody. I know several ppl that dont have credit cards and cant get them. They dont have bad credit -they just dont have any credit history @ all. They work but seriously banks arent taking on new ppl anymore.

SOB

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Whaaaaaah!
I'm a
Moron!

- edited by some unethical admin - you think its funny? - its a slippery slope

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freediver

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #108 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 7:14am

But keen did get the retail slump right and I bet you wouldn't have believed it in 2008 when he made it.

Grin

just after the GFC hit and everything was looking gloomy? In fact that makes him a bit behind the 8 ball. It is astounding how someone can predict the same thing that nearly every single economist is predicting, and their followers will insist this makes them some kind of genius and every other prediction is therefor going to come true. Think about it.

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #109 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 7:46am

There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.

Time will also prove that he was right about real estate. The government will run out of stimulus for that sector sooner rather than later, then see who was right. The cracks are already starting to show.

Get ready for the GFC part II, which is actually a continuation of the first one. Where's the growth?

In the East.

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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freediver

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #110 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 8:20am

Quote:

There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.

Nearly all of them did - hence the very high interest rates. That's what it means when the reserve bank keeps raising interest rates like that - they are trying to get people to stop borrowing. In fact the high interest rates usually trigger the downturn.

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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Bobby.

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #111 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:10am

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 8:20am:

Quote:

There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.

Nearly all of them did - hence the very high interest rates. That's what it means when the reserve bank keeps raising interest rates like that - they are trying to get people to stop borrowing. In fact the high interest rates usually trigger the downturn.

The lower interest rates haven't done much:

we still have the 2 speed economy yet mining is now giving less profits as well.
How much money has the mining super profit tax raised?

Who is doing well?

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Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #112 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:14am

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 7:14am:

But keen did get the retail slump right and I bet you wouldn't have believed it in 2008 when he made it.

Grin

just after the GFC hit and everything was looking gloomy? In fact that makes him a bit behind the 8 ball. It is astounding how someone can predict the same thing that nearly every single economist is predicting, and their followers will insist this makes them some kind of genius and every other prediction is therefor going to come true. Think about it.

Not true. Keen predicted the GFC and the retail slump has only really happened in the last 2 years.

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 49015 At my desk.	Re: We owe $4.8 trillion Reply #113 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:16am Keen was only correct where he parroted what most other economists said. Wherever he diverged, he has been wrong. Or as you prefer to put it, you are still waiting for his predictions to come true. No wonder Nostradamus had it so easy.
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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #114 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:21am

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 8:20am:

Quote:

There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.

Nearly all of them did - hence the very high interest rates. That's what it means when the reserve bank keeps raising interest rates like that - they are trying to get people to stop borrowing. In fact the high interest rates usually trigger the downturn.

Why Did So Many Economists Fail to Predict the Global Financial Crisis, and So Many Policymakers Mishandle It - While Some Saw It All Coming?

Queen Elizabeth asked why the economist's didn't see this coming

In a now famous letter in response to a question by Queen Elizabeth, economists in England explained why no one foresaw the timing, extent and severity of the credit crisis by laying responsibility on the “failure of the collective imagination of many bright people.” (Link to letter, PDF) This answer only begs the question as to why the imagination of so many economists was so limited.

http://ineteconomics.org/financial-crisis-blinders

The answer to the Queen's question was "they didn't want to"

Why didn't they?

They were in denial, the same as many will be when we enter the next phase of the GFC, which will be a hell of a lot worse than what we've experienced already.

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 104688 Melbourne Gender:	Re: We owe $4.8 trillion Reply #115 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:24am Hope not Pansi. The next thing the government will do is to raid our super funds. They will issue Govt. bonds to be paid on the never never - & you won't have a choice.
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freediver

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #116 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:27am

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:21am:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 8:20am:

Quote:

There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.

Nearly all of them did - hence the very high interest rates. That's what it means when the reserve bank keeps raising interest rates like that - they are trying to get people to stop borrowing. In fact the high interest rates usually trigger the downturn.

Why Did So Many Economists Fail to Predict the Global Financial Crisis, and So Many Policymakers Mishandle It - While Some Saw It All Coming?

Queen Elizabeth asked why the economist's didn't see this coming

In a now famous letter in response to a question by Queen Elizabeth, economists in England explained why no one foresaw the timing, extent and severity of the credit crisis by laying responsibility on the “failure of the collective imagination of many bright people.” (Link to letter, PDF) This answer only begs the question as to why the imagination of so many economists was so limited.

http://ineteconomics.org/financial-crisis-blinders

The answer to the Queen's question was "they didn't want to"

Why didn't they?

They were in denial, the same as many will be when we enter the next phase of the GFC, which will be a hell of a lot worse than what we've experienced already.

Pansi, the fact that the Queen made the same mistake as you does not prove you are right. It just shows that the Queen does not understand macroeconomics either. Even if you don't understand economics, all you had to do was check the front page page of the Australian and you would have known it was on it's way.

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Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #117 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:28am

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:16am:

Keen was only correct where he parroted what most other economists said. Wherever he diverged, he has been wrong. Or as you prefer to put it, you are still waiting for his predictions to come true. No wonder Nostradamus had it so easy.

I already explained why keen's prediction on the housing slump has not happened yet. Why do you and longloser keep ignoring the obvious ?

keen made the prediction on a housing slump before labor re-stimulated the housing market and reinflated the property bubble with there triple first home buyers scam. In essence they have just delayed the inevitable slump.

In fairness to keen you can't blame him for the government medaling in the property market Sad

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 49015 At my desk.	Re: We owe $4.8 trillion Reply #118 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:31am Because it doesn't matter. All he has done is taken mainstream economic predictions that anyone could get from the front page of the newspaper, added whatever political spin you want to hear, and you think he is some kind of genius.
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Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #119 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:36am

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:31am:

Because it doesn't matter. All he has done is taken mainstream economic predictions that anyone could get from the front page of the newspaper, added whatever political spin you want to hear, and you think he is some kind of genius.

what rubbish. Keen predicted the housing slump which hasn't happened yet because labor distorted the market with its hair-brained scams and now you are saying that he copies all of the other economic flunkies who said the complete opposite.

Make up your mind !!

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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