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We owe $4.8 trillion (Read 16404 times)
freediver
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #120 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:42am
 
Quote:
Keen predicted the housing slump which hasn't happened yet


Grin

So you keep saying.

Quote:
and now you are saying that he copies all of the other economic flunkies who said the complete opposite


Every real estate agent I spoke to at the time was saying something similar, and were far closer to the mark than Keen. And they are the last people you expect to see talking down the housing market. So were most economists. Why are people so gullible every time a fool like Keen stands up and pretends he was the only one who predicted something, when he was doing little more than reading what was predicted on the front page of the paper.
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Bobby.
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #121 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:47am
 
FD
Quote:
a fool like Keen


hello -
he is a professor of economics.
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Sir lastnail
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #122 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 11:20am
 
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:42am:
Quote:
Keen predicted the housing slump which hasn't happened yet


Grin

So you keep saying.

Quote:
and now you are saying that he copies all of the other economic flunkies who said the complete opposite


Every real estate agent I spoke to at the time was saying something similar, and were far closer to the mark than Keen. And they are the last people you expect to see talking down the housing market. So were most economists. Why are people so gullible every time a fool like Keen stands up and pretends he was the only one who predicted something, when he was doing little more than reading what was predicted on the front page of the paper.


Little wonder, it's was those same real estate parasites that went running to the government for corporate bail outs in the form of first home buyers scams in order to prop up the real estate industry which is why they were more optimistic than keen was !!

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perceptions_now
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #123 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 11:52am
 
For information purposes -


Real-World Economics Review is an economics journal that in 2010 polled their readers and asked them to vote for "the three economists who first and most clearly anticipated and gave public warning of the Global Financial Collapse and whose work is most likely to prevent another GFC in the future." Revere Award for Economics winners and details are here and documentation of the predictions by the finalists are included in Foresight and Fait Accompli: Two Timelines for the Global Financial Collapse. The Revere finalists in voting order below.

1.  Steve Keen
2.  Nouriel Roubini
3.  Dean Baker
4.  Joseph Stiglitz
5.  Ann Pettifor
6.  Robert Shiller
7.  Paul Krugman
8.  Michael Hudson
9.  Wynne Godley
10.George Soros

Link -
http://investorhome.com/predicted.htm

I would agree, that both Keen & Roubini did the best job, in warning about events.

That said, IMO neither got it quite right, BUT they certainly got it a great deal MORE CORRECT, than the vast majority of "normal" Accountants, Economists & the Global Politicians.

It is also difficult, if not impossible, to be correct with all predictions, considering that nearly all Global Politicians & Central Banks are trying their utmost to ensure the status quo" continues.

AND so, some plans have been implemented, with CB's & Politicians thinking those plans would solve the problem/s or at the very least, postpone or kick the can further down the road, SO IT GOES INTO SOMEONE ELSE'S WATCH?

Some of these actions have succeeded in postponing the worst effects from happening, a bit longer than would otherwise have been the case, BUT the basic final outcomes are still going to happen, although the final outcomes may be a bit worse, because of those Government & CB interventions!
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Bobby.
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #124 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 12:06pm
 
Dear Perceptions,
the fact is that we shouldn't be in so much debt -
that's all I was trying to say.
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freediver
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #125 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 12:59pm
 
Quote:
AND so, some plans have been implemented, with CB's & Politicians thinking those plans would solve the problem/s or at the very least, postpone


The actions of the reserve bank are intended to bring a recession froward in time, not postpone it.
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Ex Dame Pansi
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #126 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:06pm
 
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:27am:
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:21am:
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 8:20am:
Quote:
There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.


Nearly all of them did - hence the very high interest rates. That's what it means when the reserve bank keeps raising interest rates like that - they are trying to get people to stop borrowing. In fact the high interest rates usually trigger the downturn.




Why Did So Many Economists Fail to Predict the Global Financial Crisis, and So Many Policymakers Mishandle It - While Some Saw It All Coming?



Queen Elizabeth asked why the economist's didn't see this coming

In a now famous letter in response to a question by Queen Elizabeth, economists in England explained why no one foresaw the timing, extent and severity of the credit crisis by laying responsibility on the “failure of the collective imagination of many bright people.” (Link to letter, PDF) This answer only begs the question as to why the imagination of so many economists was so limited.

http://ineteconomics.org/financial-crisis-blinders

The answer to the Queen's question was "they didn't want to"

Why didn't they?

They were in denial, the same as many will be when we enter the next phase of the GFC, which will be a hell of a lot worse than what we've experienced already.


Pansi, the fact that the Queen made the same mistake as you does not prove you are right. It just shows that the Queen does not understand macroeconomics either. Even if you don't understand economics, all you had to do was check the front page page of the Australian and you would have known it was on it's way.




Maybe the Queen did see the GFC coming, I certainly did, as early as 2006. The thread went for ages on the Yahoo forum, there were a handful of us who were saying a crash is coming. We were called doomsayers by the righties, until the stockmarket crash of 2008, then......yes you guessed it, they blamed us for it ha! ha!....like we 'willed' it to happen.

Anyway, remember when Bernanke and Obama had to round up the fat cats and call an emergency sitting of parliament, if they didn't get a resolution by the Monday there would have been a catastrophic financial meltdown? Surely you've watched some of the documentaries about this.

They didn't know it was coming in 2008, our own government didn't even know, Keen, who has his eyes on the ball, and some others did.

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freediver
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #127 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:25pm
 
It is mainstream economics pansi. It was on the front pages of the newspaper, before it happened.
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perceptions_now
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #128 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:37pm
 
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 12:59pm:
Quote:
AND so, some plans have been implemented, with CB's & Politicians thinking those plans would solve the problem/s or at the very least, postpone


The actions of the reserve bank are intended to bring a recession froward in time, not postpone it.


Now, that would surprise the RBA!

Bringing a Recession forward, is certainly not in their charter!

In fact, the RBA would normally "smooth" the edges, they would "try" to attain "normal steady Growth", by preventing runaways in both directions.

Which is why they started reducing interest rates and on most occasions, in the past, it worked, BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT, as is already being indicated here in the R/E Market AND has already been shown in Japan, the USA & Europe. 


In short, all they have got IS DELAY OR KICK THE CAN TACTICS and eventually someone will stumble, that will fail and the House of Cards, will come tumbling down!

My expectation, for that event, is sometime between now & the end of 2014.

As for my expectations, of the current section of events, it was that almost everyone would know by the end of 2012 that we (in OZ) were finally entering the GFC downturn as it picked up force during 2012 AND I think that can now be given a tick.

That can be evidenced by the R/E Market not moving, despite the RBA interest rate reductions, the general Economy starting to slip noticeably AND the general Public starting to become noticeably hesitant about future confidence levels.



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freediver
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #129 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:41pm
 
Quote:
Now, that would surprise the RBA!


No it wouldn't.

Quote:
Bringing a Recession forward, is certainly not in their charter!


It is their reason for existence.

Quote:
In fact, the RBA would normally "smooth" the edges


Guess how they do that?
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perceptions_now
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #130 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:45pm
 
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:25pm:
It is mainstream economics pansi. It was on the front pages of the newspaper, before it happened.


Really?

Are you saying that the bulk of mainstream Economists called the GFC, before it started?

And, the Queen?
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perceptions_now
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #131 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:59pm
 
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:41pm:
Quote:
Now, that would surprise the RBA!


No it wouldn't.

Quote:
Bringing a Recession forward, is certainly not in their charter!


It is their reason for existence.

Ok?

Please show me?

http://www.rba.gov.au/about-rba/our-role.html

Really?
The RBA would deliberately bring on a Recession?
And, BY lowering interest rates?
Common on FD, you gotta do better than that!


Quote:
In fact, the RBA would normally "smooth" the edges


Guess how they do that?

That should be apparent! BUT, the RBA is not going to bring about a Recession, BY lowering interest rates.
IF the RBA wanted to bring on a Recession, it would be raising rates &/or by withdrawing liquidity from the system, which hasn't happened.
That said, raising rates at this point in time, would certainly hasten a Recession, it would also likely tip a Recession into a Depression!





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Sir lastnail
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #132 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 2:04pm
 
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:06pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:27am:
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 10:21am:
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 8:20am:
Quote:
There were very few economists that predicted the GFC before it hit, Keen was one of them.


Nearly all of them did - hence the very high interest rates. That's what it means when the reserve bank keeps raising interest rates like that - they are trying to get people to stop borrowing. In fact the high interest rates usually trigger the downturn.




Why Did So Many Economists Fail to Predict the Global Financial Crisis, and So Many Policymakers Mishandle It - While Some Saw It All Coming?



Queen Elizabeth asked why the economist's didn't see this coming

In a now famous letter in response to a question by Queen Elizabeth, economists in England explained why no one foresaw the timing, extent and severity of the credit crisis by laying responsibility on the “failure of the collective imagination of many bright people.” (Link to letter, PDF) This answer only begs the question as to why the imagination of so many economists was so limited.

http://ineteconomics.org/financial-crisis-blinders

The answer to the Queen's question was "they didn't want to"

Why didn't they?

They were in denial, the same as many will be when we enter the next phase of the GFC, which will be a hell of a lot worse than what we've experienced already.


Pansi, the fact that the Queen made the same mistake as you does not prove you are right. It just shows that the Queen does not understand macroeconomics either. Even if you don't understand economics, all you had to do was check the front page page of the Australian and you would have known it was on it's way.




Maybe the Queen did see the GFC coming, I certainly did, as early as 2006. The thread went for ages on the Yahoo forum, there were a handful of us who were saying a crash is coming. We were called doomsayers by the righties, until the stockmarket crash of 2008, then......yes you guessed it, they blamed us for it ha! ha!....like we 'willed' it to happen.

Anyway, remember when Bernanke and Obama had to round up the fat cats and call an emergency sitting of parliament, if they didn't get a resolution by the Monday there would have been a catastrophic financial meltdown? Surely you've watched some of the documentaries about this.

They didn't know it was coming in 2008, our own government didn't even know, Keen, who has his eyes on the ball, and some others did.



was longweekend58 aka gold_medal one of those that dismissed the prediction outright just as he does now with the housing market ?
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Ex Dame Pansi
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #133 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 2:05pm
 

Keen saw it back in 2005, I don't think there was many headlines about a financial crisis back then.


The mainstream media should be reporting this information, otherwise people will be taken by surprise like in 2008. Someone has to tell people the bad news, he said.

He's regarded as a quack in Australia because too many people have too much money tied up in real estate, they're afraid to admit there's a problem on the horizon.

................................................................................
...


Word on the street: Keen continues to claim that house prices in Australia will fall by 40 per cent.

Steve Keen, associate professor of economics at the University of Western Sydney, is becoming something of a superstar. He has been acknowledged as one of a handful of economists to have predicted the global financial crisis and now is a regular speaker at high-profile conventions around the world.

He is a consultant for the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for the Asia Pacific and in April he is speaking alongside George Soros and Nobel Prize-winning economists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman at the Institute for New Economic Thinking where he has been asked to give a speech on “taming financial market instability”.

The same organisation has given Keen almost $250,000 to develop software capable of predicting an economic crisis before it happens.

Last November he was interviewed on the BBC’s Hardtalk program, which attracts a worldwide audience of almost 300 million, in which he “went public” about his idea for a “debt jubilee”, where private debts are written off “en masse” to avoid “two decades” of economic stagnation.

Yet in his home country, this renegade economist is regarded as something of a quack. His outspoken views about Australia’s housing market, which he maintains will fall by 40 per cent over the next 10-15 years, have caused many to dismiss him as an attention-seeking alarmist.

Ironically, it’s a label that Keen does not mind wearing. “Somebody has to tell people the bad news,” he says. “When I saw the signs of the financial crisis back in 2005, I didn’t want to see what I was seeing.

“It was an accident, stumbling across the data while preparing to appear as an expert witness in a court case. It showed an exponential rise in private debt in Australia, and in the US, that was clearly unsustainable and was going to lead to a collapse in asset prices.

“When you see something like that, you have a responsibility to ring the alarm bell.”

http://www.brw.com.au/p/sections/features/keen_to_be_heard_ibhMdopX0E8Soh00ql3mP...
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freediver
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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #134 - Jan 4th, 2013 at 2:27pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:45pm:
freediver wrote on Jan 4th, 2013 at 1:25pm:
It is mainstream economics pansi. It was on the front pages of the newspaper, before it happened.


Really?

Are you saying that the bulk of mainstream Economists called the GFC, before it started?

And, the Queen?


Sure, just not a language most people understand. But it was in plain English on the front page of the Australian many times. They didn't call it a GFC or give a date or do any of the Nostradamus stuff. Do you recall all the references to the economy 'overheating'? The PM and treasurer were talking about it too.

The whole point of raising interest rates is to slow investment and trigger a downturn as early as possible, before the bubble gets too big.

The Queen is not an economist.

Quote:
IF the RBA wanted to bring on a Recession, it would be raising rates &/or by withdrawing liquidity from the system, which hasn't happened.
That said, raising rates at this point in time, would certainly hasten a Recession, it would also likely tip a Recession into a Depression!


Our RBA, and foreign ones, all raised interest rates in the lead-up to the GFC. To anyone familiar with the lingo, this is economics for 'a downturn is coming.' Their actions helped trigger the GFC. They all lowered rates after the GFC hit.
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