Australian Politics Forum - We owe $4.8 trillion

Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #150 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:59pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:45pm:

my actual predictrions were:

no recession for australia - correct
slight recession in USA - wrong (it was severe)
no crash in our house market - correct

2.5 out of 3 while you were predicting depression in USA, deep recession here and 40% drop in house prices. thats 0 out of 3

so you didn't predict the GFC then.

And your prediction of house prices was based on NO government stimulus and intervention in stopping house prices from collapsing which means you would have got that wrong if it wasn't for labor wasting money to prop it up !!

And did you predict the slump in the retail sector because Steve Keen did Wink

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Bobby. Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 104680 Melbourne Gender:	Re: We owe $4.8 trillion Reply #151 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:02pm Gold_medal/Longweekend, Quote: house prices are rising - not dropping. false statement. forgiven for lying.
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gold_medal

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #152 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:59pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:45pm:

my actual predictrions were:

no recession for australia - correct
slight recession in USA - wrong (it was severe)
no crash in our house market - correct

2.5 out of 3 while you were predicting depression in USA, deep recession here and 40% drop in house prices. thats 0 out of 3

so you didn't predict the GFC then.

And your prediction of house prices was based on NO government stimulus and intervention in stopping house prices from collapsing which means you would have got that wrong if it wasn't for labor wasting money to prop it up !!

And did you predict the slump in the retail sector because Steve Keen did Wink

look idiot... my prediction was simply NO HOUSING CRASH. Im not the moron saying i would ahve been right if not for blah, blah blah... you got it wrong because you dont understand how all of this works. Predictive modelling is complex and it does mean you have to understand all the factors involed. just because you thought the govt would do nothing and that banks wouldnt protect their valuatiuons doesnt meann that the majority of other people didnt. we did. and we were right and you were wrong. as it usually is.

PS I did predict the GFC. i said we wouldnt go into recession over it. and we didnt. you predicted depression. you are never right. ever. like pansi, you are almost always wrong.

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gold_medal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3897 Gender:	Re: We owe $4.8 trillion Reply #153 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:02pm: Gold_medal/Longweekend, Quote: house prices are rising - not dropping. false statement. forgiven for lying. topic too difficult for you lawnmower man?
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freediver

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #154 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:06pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:48pm:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:27pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 1:45pm:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 1:25pm:

It is mainstream economics pansi. It was on the front pages of the newspaper, before it happened.

Really?

Are you saying that the bulk of mainstream Economists called the GFC, before it started?

And, the Queen?

Sure, just not a language most people understand. But it was in plain English on the front page of the Australian many times. They didn't call it a GFC or give a date or do any of the Nostradamus stuff. Do you recall all the references to the economy 'overheating'? The PM and treasurer were talking about it too.

The whole point of raising interest rates is to slow investment and trigger a downturn as early as possible, before the bubble gets too big.

The Queen is not an economist.

Quote:

IF the RBA wanted to bring on a Recession, it would be raising rates &/or by withdrawing liquidity from the system, which hasn't happened.
That said, raising rates at this point in time, would certainly hasten a Recession, it would also likely tip a Recession into a Depression!

Our RBA, and foreign ones, all raised interest rates in the lead-up to the GFC. To anyone familiar with the lingo, this is economics for 'a downturn is coming.' Their actions helped trigger the GFC. They all lowered rates after the GFC hit.

thats not even a remotely accurate interpretation or even an accurate recal of the facts. Australie was raising its rates because the RBA were about the only people in the country who DIDNT see the GFC coming and acted in the wrong direction. Overseas interest rates were low and going lower which unfortunately didnt give them much leeway to use rates as a stimulatory effect.

You are confused GM. Raising rates is the right direction, up until the bubble bursts. You don't need to rely on my recollection. There are plenty of records of interest rates from here and overseas. Lowering interest rates would be a really bad idea. It would encourage people to get further into debt just before a recession. Does that sound like a good idea to you?

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #155 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:09pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:56pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:49pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:38pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:36am:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:31am:

Because it doesn't matter. All he has done is taken mainstream economic predictions that anyone could get from the front page of the newspaper, added whatever political spin you want to hear, and you think he is some kind of genius.

what rubbish. Keen predicted the housing slump which hasn't happened yet because labor distorted the market with its hair-brained scams and now you are saying that he copies all of the other economic flunkies who said the complete opposite.

Make up your mind !!

you cant have it both ways. If Keen is a genius then his predictions would have come true but they actually missed by a mile. You cant say that the FHOG was the difference or that it was unpredictable. The notion that the govt would stand idly by and let a housing slump simply happen is also ridiculous. this is what is wrong with both you and Steve Keen. You base your arguments on bitterness and iedology rather than hard fact logic or historical precedence.

Yes keen got the GFC right and you didn't !!!!

And you can't make a fair prediction about the housing market when the government distorts the market with home owners grants and gives guarantees on bank deposits. You keep missing this valid point.

Watch the Insight program and you can see that housing was already on the downward slope and then when labor got in it tripled the first home buyers scam to keep the bubble from deflating. It's so obvious except to a retard such as yourself. Now today, housing is on the downward slope again just as it was at the start of the GFC and guess what ?? No more easy credit from banks and no more first home buyers scams to prop it up again !!

except that stats show that house prices are creepig UP again. or is this to be like your temperature claims in which you just asy it is hotter despite the evidence saying something else?

house prices are rising - not dropping. [cue gaynail using a singular example of a hosue with massive drop]

in melbourne they are going down mate. same as tasmania and SA.

pansi has given you many examples of 20-40% drop in house prices but you choose to ignore that in favour of some rubbery bullshit figures that come from the same mob that give us low unemployment rates when we know that there are some areas that have 20% and more unemployment !!

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Bobby.

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #156 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:09pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:02pm:

Gold_medal/Longweekend,
Quote:

house prices are rising - not dropping.

false statement.

forgiven for lying.

topic too difficult for you lawnmower man?

Longweekend,
you are a proven liar:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1356646946/57#57

and you've shown no remorse & haven't even apologised to the readers.

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gold_medal

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #157 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:11pm

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:06pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:48pm:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:27pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 1:45pm:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 1:25pm:

It is mainstream economics pansi. It was on the front pages of the newspaper, before it happened.

Really?

Are you saying that the bulk of mainstream Economists called the GFC, before it started?

And, the Queen?

Sure, just not a language most people understand. But it was in plain English on the front page of the Australian many times. They didn't call it a GFC or give a date or do any of the Nostradamus stuff. Do you recall all the references to the economy 'overheating'? The PM and treasurer were talking about it too.

The whole point of raising interest rates is to slow investment and trigger a downturn as early as possible, before the bubble gets too big.

The Queen is not an economist.

Quote:

IF the RBA wanted to bring on a Recession, it would be raising rates &/or by withdrawing liquidity from the system, which hasn't happened.
That said, raising rates at this point in time, would certainly hasten a Recession, it would also likely tip a Recession into a Depression!

Our RBA, and foreign ones, all raised interest rates in the lead-up to the GFC. To anyone familiar with the lingo, this is economics for 'a downturn is coming.' Their actions helped trigger the GFC. They all lowered rates after the GFC hit.

thats not even a remotely accurate interpretation or even an accurate recal of the facts. Australie was raising its rates because the RBA were about the only people in the country who DIDNT see the GFC coming and acted in the wrong direction. Overseas interest rates were low and going lower which unfortunately didnt give them much leeway to use rates as a stimulatory effect.

You are confused GM. Raising rates is the right direction, up until the bubble bursts. You don't need to rely on my recollection. There are plenty of records of interest rates from here and overseas. Lowering interest rates would be a really bad idea. It would encourage people to get further into debt just before a recession. Does that sound like a good idea to you?

for goodness sake FD... the GFC was coming and the economy was starting to stall; and the RBA... RAISED rates with the stated objective of 'slowing an overheating economy' that was already slowing down. It was the classic Keating 'recession we had to have' mistake of relying on official stats that were 6 months old while the anecdotal evidence was plain to most that the economy was already slowing rapidly. They got a lot of flak over it and all deserved. the rest of the world was lowering interest rates well ahead of the RBA. the RBA were absolutely OBSESSED with inflation at the time to the extent that nothing else mattered and rate rise followed rate rise all to slow an economy when they seemed to have no idea that the GFC has already started overseas and was headed our way. they are not a very good economic manager because the either over-react, under-react or react too late.

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gold_medal

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #158 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:13pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:09pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:56pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:49pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:38pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:36am:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 10:31am:

Because it doesn't matter. All he has done is taken mainstream economic predictions that anyone could get from the front page of the newspaper, added whatever political spin you want to hear, and you think he is some kind of genius.

what rubbish. Keen predicted the housing slump which hasn't happened yet because labor distorted the market with its hair-brained scams and now you are saying that he copies all of the other economic flunkies who said the complete opposite.

Make up your mind !!

you cant have it both ways. If Keen is a genius then his predictions would have come true but they actually missed by a mile. You cant say that the FHOG was the difference or that it was unpredictable. The notion that the govt would stand idly by and let a housing slump simply happen is also ridiculous. this is what is wrong with both you and Steve Keen. You base your arguments on bitterness and iedology rather than hard fact logic or historical precedence.

Yes keen got the GFC right and you didn't !!!!

And you can't make a fair prediction about the housing market when the government distorts the market with home owners grants and gives guarantees on bank deposits. You keep missing this valid point.

Watch the Insight program and you can see that housing was already on the downward slope and then when labor got in it tripled the first home buyers scam to keep the bubble from deflating. It's so obvious except to a retard such as yourself. Now today, housing is on the downward slope again just as it was at the start of the GFC and guess what ?? No more easy credit from banks and no more first home buyers scams to prop it up again !!

except that stats show that house prices are creepig UP again. or is this to be like your temperature claims in which you just asy it is hotter despite the evidence saying something else?

house prices are rising - not dropping. [cue gaynail using a singular example of a hosue with massive drop]

in melbourne they are going down mate. same as tasmania and SA.

pansi has given you many examples of 20-40% drop in house prices but you choose to ignore that in favour of some rubbery bullshit figures that come from the same mob that give us low unemployment rates when we know that there are some areas that have 20% and more unemployment !!

you will be granted zero credibility with the 'official stats are crap and I know better' line. thatr is about the only thing you could do to lower your already subterranean credibility.

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gold_medal

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #159 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:14pm

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:09pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:02pm:

Gold_medal/Longweekend,
Quote:

house prices are rising - not dropping.

false statement.

forgiven for lying.

topic too difficult for you lawnmower man?

Longweekend,
you are a proven liar:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1356646946/57#57

and you've shown no remorse & haven't even apologised to the readers.

booby: the gay stalker

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perceptions_now

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #160 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:14pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:43pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 1:45pm:

freediver wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 1:25pm:

It is mainstream economics pansi. It was on the front pages of the newspaper, before it happened.

Really?

Are you saying that the bulk of mainstream Economists called the GFC, before it started?

And, the Queen?

it was discussed all around the world for some time as soon as the sub-prime market collapsed. your memory is short - almost goldfish-like.

The Queen yesterday called the global financial crisis "awful" - and asked why nobody had seen it coming.

The Queen, 82, was opening a £71million building at the London School of Economics.

LSE's Professor Luis Garicano told her: "At every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/queen-asks-why-nobody-saw-the-financial-355...
=====================

Financial Crisis Blinders

Why Did So Many Economists Fail to Predict the Global Financial Crisis, and So Many Policymakers Mishandle It - While Some Saw It All Coming?

Economists by and large either failed to anticipate the global financial crisis that began in 2008, or greatly underestimated its severity. What about the economics field led policymakers and practitioners to fail so spectacularly? Will the same problems get in the way again and so undermine the recovery, or worse, lead to a repeat disaster? Or are there alternative theories to analyze the situation and avoid the problems next time?

In a now famous letter in response to a question by Queen Elizabeth, economists in England explained why no one foresaw the timing, extent and severity of the credit crisis by laying responsibility on the “failure of the collective imagination of many bright people.”

How did the economics profession come to be so complacent about the possibility of such a crash? Could it be the increasing belief over the last 30 years in the self-equilibrating properties of financial markets?

There were economists who did see the crisis coming and were very vocal about it at the time. More prominent (and celebrated) examples include people such as Robert Shiller, Nouriel Roubini and Raghuram Rajan.

http://ineteconomics.org/financial-crisis-blinders
==============================

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Bobby.

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #161 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:15pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:14pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:09pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:02pm:

Gold_medal/Longweekend,
Quote:

house prices are rising - not dropping.

false statement.

forgiven for lying.

topic too difficult for you lawnmower man?

Longweekend,
you are a proven liar:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1356646946/57#57

and you've shown no remorse & haven't even apologised to the readers.

booby: the gay stalker

Another lie

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #162 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:19pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:57pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:55pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:45pm:

my actual predictrions were:

no recession for australia - correct
slight recession in USA - wrong (it was severe)
no crash in our house market - correct

2.5 out of 3 while you were predicting depression in USA, deep recession here and 40% drop in house prices. thats 0 out of 3

It aint over yet, baby......by a looooong shot!

Enter the great recession/depression, it's a comin'

You can't tally the scores until the game's over.

and the game is over when exactly??? and i mean that sincerely. tell me exactly WHEN you consider it appropriate to tally the scores?

We can predict when a recession/depression is on our doorstep, but no one can predict when it will end. If you think that this GFC that we are still very much in will end on a certain day, you shouldn't be talking economics.

Nations will try their own methods along the way, like America, they have had no effect so far, but they'll keep trying with one thing after another, so it could go on for a decade, maybe two, no one knows.

Steve Keen predicted the housing bubble collapse, but he couldn't predict the government intervention, so the game changes according to austerity/stimulus measures. Government intervention caused the bubble to stay inflated somewhat, but rest assured stimulus will run out, then watch the debt.

America is up to QE forever, so the effects of that has to be taken into account.

One thing for sure, the debt is mounting, the can is being kicked a little further each week and the economy does have a breaking point.

Goodbye growth fairy.

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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Sir lastnail

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #163 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:19pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:59pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 2:45pm:

my actual predictrions were:

no recession for australia - correct
slight recession in USA - wrong (it was severe)
no crash in our house market - correct

2.5 out of 3 while you were predicting depression in USA, deep recession here and 40% drop in house prices. thats 0 out of 3

so you didn't predict the GFC then.

And your prediction of house prices was based on NO government stimulus and intervention in stopping house prices from collapsing which means you would have got that wrong if it wasn't for labor wasting money to prop it up !!

And did you predict the slump in the retail sector because Steve Keen did Wink

look idiot... my prediction was simply NO HOUSING CRASH. Im not the moron saying i would ahve been right if not for blah, blah blah... you got it wrong because you dont understand how all of this works. Predictive modelling is complex and it does mean you have to understand all the factors involed. just because you thought the govt would do nothing and that banks wouldnt protect their valuatiuons doesnt meann that the majority of other people didnt. we did. and we were right and you were wrong. as it usually is.

PS I did predict the GFC. i said we wouldnt go into recession over it. and we didnt. you predicted depression. you are never right. ever. like pansi, you are almost always wrong.

you didn't predict the GFC at all you mental midget. Saying the US was only going into a slight recession means that you were way off the mark !!

And does the so called predictive modeling include medaling in the housing market by the federal government ?

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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gold_medal

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Re: We owe $4.8 trillion
Reply #164 - Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:21pm

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:15pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:14pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:09pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 4^th, 2013 at 3:02pm:

Gold_medal/Longweekend,
Quote:

house prices are rising - not dropping.

false statement.

forgiven for lying.

topic too difficult for you lawnmower man?

Longweekend,
you are a proven liar:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1356646946/57#57

and you've shown no remorse & haven't even apologised to the readers.

booby: the gay stalker

Another lie

if it LOOKS like a gay stalker, ACTS like a gay stalker and POSTS like a gay stalker then logic suggest that it probably IS a gay stalker.

time to move on, booby. How about IMFULLOFIT? I believe he is gay.

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