Australian Politics Forum - MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.

sir prince duke alevine

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #30 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:40pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:01pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

There is no connection, never was a connection. Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause and just like yesterday, today there is no correlation.

Wow! What iron clad logic! DO you actually know what the "greenhouse effect" is?

ANd what makes you think :Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause"?:

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend1. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification2 and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years3. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed4, 5, 6, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy7 to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate–ecosystem–soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases8 and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10929.html

So what caused the permafrost to melt in the first place??

And IF heat caused the release of large amounts of Co2 then, why isn't it likely that the recent increases in Co2 are from natural expulsions by the oceans and permafrost this time??

and THAT is the kind of critical reasoning that MOTR talks about but doesnt use. The kind of thinking that asks 'why' instead of regurgitating ideology or preconceived opinions.

AND WHY isn't it possible then for natural expulsions and permafrot this time too, with human made CO2 tipping it over the edge further? Come on mr Gold_medal, some critical thinking please. Grin

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Disclaimer for Mothra per POST so it is forever acknowledged: Saying 'Islam' or 'Muslims' doesn't mean ALL muslims. This does not target individual muslims who's opinion I am not aware of.

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gold_medal

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #31 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:46pm

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:40pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:01pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

There is no connection, never was a connection. Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause and just like yesterday, today there is no correlation.

Wow! What iron clad logic! DO you actually know what the "greenhouse effect" is?

ANd what makes you think :Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause"?:

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend1. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification2 and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years3. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed4, 5, 6, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy7 to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate–ecosystem–soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases8 and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10929.html

So what caused the permafrost to melt in the first place??

And IF heat caused the release of large amounts of Co2 then, why isn't it likely that the recent increases in Co2 are from natural expulsions by the oceans and permafrost this time??

and THAT is the kind of critical reasoning that MOTR talks about but doesnt use. The kind of thinking that asks 'why' instead of regurgitating ideology or preconceived opinions.

AND WHY isn't it possible then for natural expulsions and permafrot this time too, with human made CO2 tipping it over the edge further? Come on mr Gold_medal, some critical thinking please. Grin

the critical thinking is in asking what came first - warming or increased CO2. what starated the warming this time becuase it sure wasnt CO2.

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Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 95989 Gender:	Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research. Reply #32 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:48pm cods wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 7:10am: havent we got it on good authority from the experts on here. THERE WILL BE NO ICE IN ANTARCTICA BY THE YEAR 2013.. No, Cods, I think what they actually said was THERE WILL BE NO CARBON TAX UNDER A GOVERNMENT I LEAD.
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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #33 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:59pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:46pm:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:40pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:01pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

There is no connection, never was a connection. Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause and just like yesterday, today there is no correlation.

Wow! What iron clad logic! DO you actually know what the "greenhouse effect" is?

ANd what makes you think :Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause"?:

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend1. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification2 and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years3. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed4, 5, 6, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy7 to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate–ecosystem–soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases8 and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10929.html

So what caused the permafrost to melt in the first place??

And IF heat caused the release of large amounts of Co2 then, why isn't it likely that the recent increases in Co2 are from natural expulsions by the oceans and permafrost this time??

and THAT is the kind of critical reasoning that MOTR talks about but doesnt use. The kind of thinking that asks 'why' instead of regurgitating ideology or preconceived opinions.

AND WHY isn't it possible then for natural expulsions and permafrot this time too, with human made CO2 tipping it over the edge further? Come on mr Gold_medal, some critical thinking please. Grin

the critical thinking is in asking what came first - warming or increased CO2. what starated the warming this time becuase it sure wasnt CO2.

It sure wasn't CO2. In your opinion, or proven fact? Grin

And how about the critical thinking about the potential continued warming because of CO2?

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Disclaimer for Mothra per POST so it is forever acknowledged: Saying 'Islam' or 'Muslims' doesn't mean ALL muslims. This does not target individual muslims who's opinion I am not aware of.

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gold_medal

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #34 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 5:06pm

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:59pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:46pm:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:40pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:01pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

There is no connection, never was a connection. Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause and just like yesterday, today there is no correlation.

Wow! What iron clad logic! DO you actually know what the "greenhouse effect" is?

ANd what makes you think :Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause"?:

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend1. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification2 and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years3. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed4, 5, 6, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy7 to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate–ecosystem–soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases8 and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10929.html

So what caused the permafrost to melt in the first place??

And IF heat caused the release of large amounts of Co2 then, why isn't it likely that the recent increases in Co2 are from natural expulsions by the oceans and permafrost this time??

and THAT is the kind of critical reasoning that MOTR talks about but doesnt use. The kind of thinking that asks 'why' instead of regurgitating ideology or preconceived opinions.

AND WHY isn't it possible then for natural expulsions and permafrot this time too, with human made CO2 tipping it over the edge further? Come on mr Gold_medal, some critical thinking please. Grin

the critical thinking is in asking what came first - warming or increased CO2. what starated the warming this time becuase it sure wasnt CO2.

It sure wasn't CO2. In your opinion, or proven fact? Grin

And how about the critical thinking about the potential continued warming because of CO2?

ice core evidence suggests that CO2 FOLLOWS warming not causing it. thats a problem for the ACC hypothesis

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rabbitoh07

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #35 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 5:33pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

Proxy data confirms that the MWP was AT LEAST one degree warmer

What paper is the blog you have linked to referring to?

Why is there no reference?

All you have is a blog that seems to imply that an unnamed paper shows that at one point in Anarctica there may have been 1 degree warmer temperatures at some point in the past thousand years.

THis does not support your claim that the MWP was 4 degrees warmer globally

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

than today while historical records suggest 3-4 degrees based in part on things like the Greenland situation which you refuse to discuss.

You claimed that the earth was 4 degrees warmer globally during the MWP. Are you saying that you are basing this statement purely on anecdodal evidence from Greenland?!?!?

Can you show us this anecdotal evidence from Greenland?

All you seem to be telling us is exactly what Mann et al told us in 2009:

The 2009 Mann et al. study found warmth exceeding 1961–1990 levels in Southern Greenland and parts of North America during the Medieval climate anomaly (defined for this purpose as 950 to 1250) with warmth in some regions exceeding temperatures of the 1990–2010 period.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

THis does not support your claim that the MWP was 4 degrees warmer globally

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

but it only has to be equal to or warmer to absolutely dispel the A in ACC.

Why?!?! That is nonsense.

It is well known that the earth has been warmer than today at other times in history - and it may even have been warmer globally during the MWP - although current research suggests this is unlikely

Despite clear evidence for Medieval warmth greater than present in some individual records, the new hemispheric composite supports the principal conclusion of earlier hemispheric reconstructions and, furthermore, indicates that maximum Medieval warmth was restricted to two-three 20–30 year intervals, with composite values during these times being only comparable to the mid-20 th century warm time interval. Failure to substantiate hemispheric warmth greater than the present consistently occurs in composites because there are significant offsets in timing of warmth in different regions.
http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.1579/0044-7447-29.1.51
How on earth does this " absolutely dispel the A in ACC."?!?!?!

No one has ever claimed that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the ONLY things that impact upon climate. What we do know is that NOW - anthropoogenic GHG's are impacting upon climate.

The possibility that the MWP may have been as warm as or warmer than today does not change in any way the simple fact that NOW atmospheric CO2 levels have significantly increased due to anthropogenic emissions, and this is impacting on the amount of downward longwave radiation being redirected to the earth's surface.

You seem to be using the logic:
"During the MWP, people were never run over by busses - therefore being run over by a bus cannot possibly hurt a person."

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

now follow the link given and go to their hyperlinkds and find the source data.

Your link does not show the source. It does not even name the paper being referred to.

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sir prince duke alevine

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #36 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 5:49pm

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 5:06pm:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:59pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:46pm:

sir prince duke alevine wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 4:40pm:

gold_medal wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 1:01pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 12:47pm:

There is no connection, never was a connection. Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause and just like yesterday, today there is no correlation.

Wow! What iron clad logic! DO you actually know what the "greenhouse effect" is?

ANd what makes you think :Co2 has always been an effect, not a cause"?:

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme global warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend1. The first and largest of these events, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification2 and an increase in global temperature of about 5 °C within a few thousand years3. Although various explanations for the PETM have been proposed4, 5, 6, a satisfactory model that accounts for the source, magnitude and timing of carbon release at the PETM and successive hyperthermals remains elusive. Here we use a new astronomically calibrated cyclostratigraphic record from central Italy7 to show that the Early Eocene hyperthermals occurred during orbits with a combination of high eccentricity and high obliquity. Corresponding climate–ecosystem–soil simulations accounting for rising concentrations of background greenhouse gases8 and orbital forcing show that the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10929.html

So what caused the permafrost to melt in the first place??

And IF heat caused the release of large amounts of Co2 then, why isn't it likely that the recent increases in Co2 are from natural expulsions by the oceans and permafrost this time??

and THAT is the kind of critical reasoning that MOTR talks about but doesnt use. The kind of thinking that asks 'why' instead of regurgitating ideology or preconceived opinions.

AND WHY isn't it possible then for natural expulsions and permafrot this time too, with human made CO2 tipping it over the edge further? Come on mr Gold_medal, some critical thinking please. Grin

the critical thinking is in asking what came first - warming or increased CO2. what starated the warming this time becuase it sure wasnt CO2.

It sure wasn't CO2. In your opinion, or proven fact? Grin

And how about the critical thinking about the potential continued warming because of CO2?

ice core evidence suggests that CO2 FOLLOWS warming not causing it. thats a problem for the ACC hypothesis

I'm not denying the suggestion and have heard the reports that ice melting has caused further releases of co2. My critic thinking question for your is: is it possible that the contribution of further co2 into the atmosphere contributing to warming?

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Disclaimer for Mothra per POST so it is forever acknowledged: Saying 'Islam' or 'Muslims' doesn't mean ALL muslims. This does not target individual muslims who's opinion I am not aware of.

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gold_medal

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Re: MWP warmer than present: peer-reviewed research.
Reply #37 - Jan 10^th, 2013 at 6:43pm

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jan 10^th, 2013 at 5:33pm: