Japan is faced with an unprecedented population challenge that will have social, economic, and political consequences for years to come.

Projections by the Japanese government indicate that if the current trend continues, the population of Japan will decline from its current 127.5 million to 116.6 million in 2030, and 97 million in 2050. This is truly astonishing and puts Japan at the forefront of uncharted demographic territory; but it is territory that many other industrial countries also are beginning to enter as well.

While predicting the future of these demographic trends is difficult, the causes are at least somewhat decipherable. Various studies of demographic change in Japan have linked declining fertility to other changing social factors such as increased education, delayed marriage age, more economic opportunities for women, and the expense of raising children in modern, urban societies. All of these have played a role in reducing fertility over the past few decades.

Another problem Japan faces is that the general low fertility rate means there are not enough younger people paying into the national pension program, and this will cause increasing strain on government coffers as the proportion of elderly (currently about 23% of the population is over 65) continues to grow.

Finally, the decline of the population over the next few decades, and the shortage of young people in particular, will have a significant impact on the Japanese labor force.

One obvious solution to this would be for Japan to relax immigration policies and allow for more workers, particularly healthcare workers, to enter the country.

Obviously, only time will tell. But Japan is faced with an unprecedented population challenge that will have social, economic, and political consequences over the next century—consequences that will not only affect Japan, but also influence Japan’s trading partners as well as its political and military allies.

Link -
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-01/japan%E2%80%99s-demographic-disaster
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Japan has already started down a path, which most other countries will follow.

It started earlier than most, because its Population Growth Peaked earlier than most & Declined quicker, after WW2. Japan also has the additional issue of being anti immigration, although I expect immigration to become more of a problem elsewhere, as well, albeit for different reasons.

The usual answer to this problem, in the past, would simply be another Baby Boom, to generate additional Demand, which is one of the usual two major Economic drivers. However, the Economic Boom created by the Baby Boomer generation, meant that many women were promoted to enter the workforce, as a means to increase the Worker participation rate and that, plus increasing costs & awareness by women, led to a continued Decline in Fertility rates, when they would usually increase.

That said, even if TPTB wanted another Baby Boom, several major factors would stand in the way -
1) Demographics - The Global Human Population has already grown from 1 Billion in 1800, to 2 billion in 1930, to 7 Billion in 2012 and we are already at the outer limits of being able to sustain the existing Population, in terms of Food, Water & most importantly Energy, SO ANOTHER GLOBAL BABY BOOM IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE.

2) Energy - Existing per capita Energy Supply has been in Decline already, for some time. However, over the last 10-15 years that has started to translate into actual & substantial Price increases. Most important of all the EROEI (Energy Return On Energy Invested) has started to go into serious Decline & this means that spare Energy capacity to push Productivity is also in serious Decline. Also in Decline, is the level of Disposable income that is available to individuals, Businesses & Governments and as the Energy position deteriorates over the next 10-20 years, the amount of Disposable income will shrink dramatically!

3) Climate Change - Whatever anyone thinks of the reasoning, we are obviously headed towards a Peak of the current cycles Warming period. That situation will lead to a greater frequency & intensity of Extreme weather events, with wet areas more susceptible to flood events, drier areas being more susceptible to droughts, BUT overall the planet will warm.
So whether anyone believes in AGW or not, we are at that part of the cycle. That said, I find the basic science on AGW is most likely correct and that will result in us speeding up the cycle to Peak Earlier, before sending us into the next Ice Age.
All of which means, the "goldilocks" climate is ending & with that Global Food Production will increasing become more difficult to feed the existing Population, let alone any more!

So, there will be no more Baby Booms & Japan will very much be "the Canary in the Coal Mine"!
Sorry, couldn't resist the pun!

Finally, Bill Clinton said, “it’s the Economy stupid” AND what this scenario translates into is exactly that. With Population & Energy both set to go into Decline, the Global Economy can only follow & the longer Politicians & TPTB try to avoid the inevitable Decline in Demand & REAL GDP's, the worse the REAL Economy will finally become!

Our Pollies need to start thinking outside the square!!!

Interesting observations, and probably correct. While a decline in population has pluses it also has minuses.

skippy. wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2013 at 8:17pm:


From the longer term perspective, we really don't have any choice, the Global & Local Population must Decline or the final result would be, Humanity would totally collapse, due to lack of Food, Water & Energy.

So, from that point of view, you are correct, it is a positive move, going into a Population Decline.

However, the management actions &/or inactions of our Politicians & TPTB have so far been abominable, in the transition stages.

They are hell bent on trying to save the status quo and that is simply NOT AN OPTION, so IF they continue, THEN the final outcomes would be a lot worse than they would otherwise have been and that is definitely a big negative!

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2013 at 9:51pm:


I am all for a lower population

Sprintcyclist wrote on Feb 2^nd, 2013 at 10:26pm:


Me too - especially/mainly those from the Left!

Dnarever wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2013 at 7:56am:

These are tired old arguments and deflections from the elite who refuse to be accountable to the social security of the Australian people and totally irrelevant...In fact the elite are using immigration to wage war on the social security of their Australian people and are failing in their duty of care as leaders in doing so.

I am always a little bit sus on people who claim to be able to predict and prophecy the future...Its a common pagan trait - an error of logic and rational thought known as chiliasm or futurism...

Maqqa wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2013 at 10:04am:


Well Maqqa, we could stumble along a bit longer, listening to Politicians (both Left & Right) telling us to "trust them", BUT all they are really doing, is much the same as you.

Politicians & their helpers (YOU), are hell bent on maintaining the status quo and in doing so they (& YOU) produce a whole pile of CRAP, just like you have just done.

CRAP being -
Credible
Reliable
Abundant
Paradoxes 

Apart from your normal SPIN, what is incorrect in what I am saying & the facts that I use?

Why would any sane society, prefer to "trust a Politician", in preference to reviewing "known facts", as supplied by Demographers ) worldwide, showing established Demographic Facts, which lead to some inescapable conclusions!

YOU call it "predicting", BUT it is merely using solid, Scientific measures to establish good Public policy, instead of relying on Politicians, who like you have NFI and are either inept or lie! 

In terms of linkage, there is an abundant amount of information available to anyone who wants to learn, which probably leaves you out, that DEMOGRAPHICS IS THE MAJOR ECONOMIC DRIVER & THAT ENERGY IS ITS NUMBER ONE ASSISTANT!

Just for a change, TRY FACTS, INSTEAD OF SPIN?