Australian Politics Forum - AAA credit rating could go.

Carl D Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9492 Rivervale, Perth Gender:	Re: AAA credit rating could go. Reply #15 - Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:32pm Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:17pm: Longweekend, you said low debt you're wrong - admit it. Uh-oh. I see another 'namaste' heading our way.
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 104688 Melbourne Gender:	Re: AAA credit rating could go. Reply #16 - Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:37pm Yes Carl, we're getting close to that forgiveness doctrine.
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perceptions_now

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #17 - Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:25pm

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:14am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:54am:

standard and poors are a company I hope goes broke. UK was just downgraded from AAA after a decade of economic misery and its third recession in 5 years. Australia however by comparision has low debt, low deficit and good economic growth and low unemployment. Since when was a surplus a necessity to a AA rating since almost no govt anywhere ever acheives it and never on a regular basis?

rating agencies are half the trouble.

has low debt Grin

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/debtclock_001.gif

not the qualifying term BY COMPARISON. it does change things.

This must be a record, twice in ine day, I agree!

As stated previously, US already exceeds a 100% Debt to GDP ratio & the UK is breathing down the neck of 100%, whilst Australian is put at 30% according to 23%, according to the IMF in the following website, therefore Australian Federal government Debt is clearly low, by international standards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 104688 Melbourne Gender:	Re: AAA credit rating could go. Reply #18 - Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:27pm Low debt? Look at the debt clock:
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Sir lastnail

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #19 - Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:35pm

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:25pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:14am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:54am:

standard and poors are a company I hope goes broke. UK was just downgraded from AAA after a decade of economic misery and its third recession in 5 years. Australia however by comparision has low debt, low deficit and good economic growth and low unemployment. Since when was a surplus a necessity to a AA rating since almost no govt anywhere ever acheives it and never on a regular basis?

rating agencies are half the trouble.

has low debt Grin

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/debtclock_001.gif

not the qualifying term BY COMPARISON. it does change things.

This must be a record, twice in ine day, I agree!

As stated previously, US already exceeds a 100% Debt to GDP ratio & the UK is breathing down the neck of 100%, whilst Australian is put at 30% according to 23%, according to the IMF in the following website, therefore Australian Federal government Debt is clearly low, by international standards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

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Bobby.

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #20 - Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

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perceptions_now

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #21 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 11:47am

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:35pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:25pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:14am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:54am:

standard and poors are a company I hope goes broke. UK was just downgraded from AAA after a decade of economic misery and its third recession in 5 years. Australia however by comparision has low debt, low deficit and good economic growth and low unemployment. Since when was a surplus a necessity to a AA rating since almost no govt anywhere ever acheives it and never on a regular basis?

rating agencies are half the trouble.

has low debt Grin

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/debtclock_001.gif

not the qualifying term BY COMPARISON. it does change things.

This must be a record, twice in ine day, I agree!

As stated previously, US already exceeds a 100% Debt to GDP ratio & the UK is breathing down the neck of 100%, whilst Australian is put at 30% according to 23%, according to the IMF in the following website, therefore Australian Federal government Debt is clearly low, by international standards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

You do realise there are a few different issues involved ?

The article that started this thread, related to Government Debt, which is quite low by Global comparisons and that was the basis of my previous comments!

That is based on current figures and that Debt to GDP comparison can not be allowed to expand exponentially, as it has in quite a few other countries, without having some unwanted side effects and I have written previously on the need to change our direction.

However, our Private Household Debt is largely driven by Housing Prices, which have risen dramatically, particularly since the early 1980's, as shown in the following chart.

There will be differences, in the various localities around Australia, for specific reasons, BUT in an overall context the main reason for the massive increases can be traced back to Demand, with the Baby Boomer Generation providing a huge lift starting around that, plus a large positive net immigration intake.

That said, in recent times, housing price increases have slowed &/or Declined somewhat in general & in some areas Prices have Declined significantly.

I expect that Housing prices will continue to fluctuate, but the emphasis will not be on the Decline, rather than the increase.

The reasons for the future Decline will be related to the reasons for the initial increase & that is a slowing rate of natural Population increase, before it actually turns negative in around 10-15 years time. Net immigration will also start to slow & that will also turn negative, BUT that is likely to start sooner than the natural decline, say within 5-10 years.

Anyway, as the Population increase slows, so to will Demand & with that slowing Demand, Prices will also Decline.

So, because Housing Prices are set to Decline, those with secure jobs/income may expect to see some benefits in the affordability area.

However, that is not to say that the Economic effects will be beneficial, because some of the related issues will actually ensure the Local & Global Economy continues to spiral downwards & the overall effects will ensure the Local & Global Economy is set to experience great difficulties, over the coming decades!

Btw, I suspect that the sequence of where Longy & I agree, MAY have just ended?

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Sir lastnail

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #22 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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JC Denton

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #23 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:42pm

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 11:47am:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:35pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:25pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:14am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 8:54am:

standard and poors are a company I hope goes broke. UK was just downgraded from AAA after a decade of economic misery and its third recession in 5 years. Australia however by comparision has low debt, low deficit and good economic growth and low unemployment. Since when was a surplus a necessity to a AA rating since almost no govt anywhere ever acheives it and never on a regular basis?

rating agencies are half the trouble.

has low debt Grin

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/debtclock_001.gif

not the qualifying term BY COMPARISON. it does change things.

This must be a record, twice in ine day, I agree!

As stated previously, US already exceeds a 100% Debt to GDP ratio & the UK is breathing down the neck of 100%, whilst Australian is put at 30% according to 23%, according to the IMF in the following website, therefore Australian Federal government Debt is clearly low, by international standards.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

You do realise there are a few different issues involved ?

The article that started this thread, related to Government Debt, which is quite low by Global comparisons and that was the basis of my previous comments!

That is based on current figures and that Debt to GDP comparison can not be allowed to expand exponentially, as it has in quite a few other countries, without having some unwanted side effects and I have written previously on the need to change our direction.

However, our Private Household Debt is largely driven by Housing Prices, which have risen dramatically, particularly since the early 1980's, as shown in the following chart.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0b/Melbourne_House_prices_...

There will be differences, in the various localities around Australia, for specific reasons, BUT in an overall context the main reason for the massive increases can be traced back to Demand, with the Baby Boomer Generation providing a huge lift starting around that, plus a large positive net immigration intake.

That said, in recent times, housing price increases have slowed &/or Declined somewhat in general & in some areas Prices have Declined significantly.

I expect that Housing prices will continue to fluctuate, but the emphasis will not be on the Decline, rather than the increase.

The reasons for the future Decline will be related to the reasons for the initial increase & that is a slowing rate of natural Population increase, before it actually turns negative in around 10-15 years time. Net immigration will also start to slow & that will also turn negative, BUT that is likely to start sooner than the natural decline, say within 5-10 years.

Anyway, as the Population increase slows, so to will Demand & with that slowing Demand, Prices will also Decline.

So, because Housing Prices are set to Decline, those with secure jobs/income may expect to see some benefits in the affordability area.

However, that is not to say that the Economic effects will be beneficial, because some of the related issues will actually ensure the Local & Global Economy continues to spiral downwards & the overall effects will ensure the Local & Global Economy is set to experience great difficulties, over the coming decades!

Btw, I suspect that the sequence of where Longy & I agree, MAY have just ended?

aka immigration + baby bonus making things less affordable for everybody, and we're all supposed to pretend that we're benefiting instead.

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Bobby.

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #24 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 2:21pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

Hi Nail,
I don't think we really own anything - we're in such debt - & to who knows who?

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longweekend58

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #25 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 4:00pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 2:21pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

Hi Nail,
I don't think we really own anything - we're in such debt - & to who knows who?

not everybody is a broke loser like you.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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Bobby.

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #26 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 5:19pm

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 4:00pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 2:21pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

Hi Nail,
I don't think we really own anything - we're in such debt - & to who knows who?

not everybody is a broke loser like you.

Nail has more money than you Longloser - at least he hasn't got a house in hock to the bank.
Why don't you ask Nail for a loan? Grin

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Sir lastnail

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #27 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 5:28pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 5:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 4:00pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 2:21pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

Hi Nail,
I don't think we really own anything - we're in such debt - & to who knows who?

not everybody is a broke loser like you.

Nail has more money than you Longloser - at least he hasn't got a house in hock to the bank.
Why don't you ask Nail for a loan? Grin

bugger him. let him lose his one and only house Grin

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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longweekend58

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #28 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 6:09pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 5:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 4:00pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 2:21pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

Hi Nail,
I don't think we really own anything - we're in such debt - & to who knows who?

not everybody is a broke loser like you.

Nail has more money than you Longloser - at least he hasn't got a house in hock to the bank.
Why don't you ask Nail for a loan? Grin

LOL... no, he doesnt have a house AT ALL

do u live in the same single room he lives in or do you have adjoining rooms for 'fun' at night?

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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longweekend58

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Re: AAA credit rating could go.
Reply #29 - Mar 1^st, 2013 at 6:10pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 5:28pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 5:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 4:00pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 2:21pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2013 at 12:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 28^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Nail,
Quote:

and what about the ability to service the debt with only 20 million people ? How many are actually in jobs which create real wealth and not just in some parasitic service industry such as a lawyer or report writer etc ?

Hear hear Nail,
And what is stopping us eventually becoming a 200% debt to GDP country
like Japan with an aging population?

We must stop living beyond our means.

It's funny how we value everything like we have paid it all off and own it all outright Grin

Hi Nail,
I don't think we really own anything - we're in such debt - & to who knows who?

not everybody is a broke loser like you.

Nail has more money than you Longloser - at least he hasn't got a house in hock to the bank.
Why don't you ask Nail for a loan? Grin

bugger him. let him lose his one and only house Grin

do you actually think that borrowing against a house for a new business is rare?? You know what? i think you actually do!!!!

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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