Australian Politics Forum - Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?

Maqqa

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Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Mar 24^th, 2013 at 12:49pm

One of the biggest issue lefties try to sweep under the carpet is their acknowledgement of fault.

Gillard tells us the problem exist because Abbott won't vote for the Houston recommendation.

Others blame the war in Afghanistan and Iraq. But that does not explain why there were only 154 illegals by boat in 2007

The Afghan & Iraq war does not explain why under Labor since 2008 6,000 Sri Lankans arrived and were returned

Can any leftards admit why illegal boats increased after 2008?

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Infarction Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 509	Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor? Reply #1 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:00pm It's not difficult. They changed the policy, that would have made a big difference, probably not the only reason but it's certainly a big one. The policy is pretty much what the pacific solution was again but the boats still came and continue to do so. Thats the issue now.
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Armchair_Politician

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #2 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:12pm

Simple - the reason for the unflux of boats is due to Rudd scrapping temporary protection visa's and Gillard refusing to reinstate them. Those visas were probably the most effective part of that policy, with offshore processing the second-most effective component of the Pacific Solution. Those visas provided safe haven to those who needed it until it was safe for them to return. It didn't give them the ability to work toward permanent residency, which is what the vast majority of the 34,000 people since 2008 want.

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Maqqa

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #3 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:15pm

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:00pm:

It's not difficult. They changed the policy, that would have made a big difference, probably not the only reason but it's certainly a big one.

The policy is pretty much what the pacific solution was again but the boats still came and continue to do so.

Thats the issue now.

Kudos to you for acknowledging a change in Labor's policy have triggered this increase of 34,000

But you've left out several important factors

(1) The horse has bolted - there it's more difficult to catch them second time around

(2) The Houston recommendation is SIMILAR to the Pacific Solution - that's why it's not working

The Houston recommendation is a cheap last season imitation Rolex compared to the original Pacific Solution

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Infarction

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #4 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:15pm

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

Simple - the reason for the unflux of boats is due to Rudd scrapping temporary protection visa's and Gillard refusing to reinstate them. Those visas were probably the most effective part of that policy, with offshore processing the second-most effective component of the Pacific Solution. Those visas provided safe haven to those who needed it until it was safe for them to return. It didn't give them the ability to work toward permanent residency, which is what the vast majority of the 34,000 people since 2008 want.

The only issue with that kind of argument is stats like these presented in this article

The numbers on Temporary Protection Visas are clearer. They were introduced in 1999 and ended in 2008. There were 11,206 issued. When they were abolished, 88% of temporary visa holders had already been granted permanent status. Just over 1000 people were still on TPVs when they were abolished; 815 of these were made permanent afterward. Of the 11,000 or so TPVs issued, 379 holders had left Australia in the interim; that is, “temporary protection visas” ended up being temporary for 3.4% of those issued them.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/09/06/what-happened-as-a-result-of-tpvs-and-the-pacific-solution/

Doesn't seem like they are much of a deterrent really.

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Maqqa

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #5 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:20pm

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:15pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:12pm:

Simple - the reason for the unflux of boats is due to Rudd scrapping temporary protection visa's and Gillard refusing to reinstate them. Those visas were probably the most effective part of that policy, with offshore processing the second-most effective component of the Pacific Solution. Those visas provided safe haven to those who needed it until it was safe for them to return. It didn't give them the ability to work toward permanent residency, which is what the vast majority of the 34,000 people since 2008 want.

The only issue with that kind of argument is stats like these presented in this article

The numbers on Temporary Protection Visas are clearer. They were introduced in 1999 and ended in 2008. There were 11,206 issued. When they were abolished, 88% of temporary visa holders had already been granted permanent status. Just over 1000 people were still on TPVs when they were abolished; 815 of these were made permanent afterward. Of the 11,000 or so TPVs issued, 379 holders had left Australia in the interim; that is, “temporary protection visas” ended up being temporary for 3.4% of those issued them.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/09/06/what-happened-as-a-result-of-tpvs-and-the-pacific-solution/

Doesn't seem like they are much of a deterrent really.

It does make sense because the numbers quoted does not differentiate between those arriving illegally by boats and those arriving by other means

The arrivals by boats were 1500 between 2002-2007

Therefore it stands to reason your 11,000 TPV recipients came from another source

We are only referring to the reasons why boat arrivals have increased

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Infarction Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 509	Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor? Reply #6 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:24pm Can you rule out the possibility that the number includes asylum seekers? Particularly since large numbers of those that came were resettled here anyhow.
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Peter Freedman Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5275 Wellington Gender:	Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor? Reply #7 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:27pm Maqqa, do the Libs pay you penal rates for working weekends?
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Maqqa

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #8 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:30pm

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:24pm:

Can you rule out the possibility that the number includes asylum seekers?

Particularly since large numbers of those that came were resettled here anyhow.

A lot of them are - but alot are not

Since 2008 - there are over 6,000 Sri Lankans being returned from a group of 34,000 boat arrivals

Compare this to 1500 boat arrivals between 2002-2007

So what does that say about Labor's policies since 2008?

You can say that we are catching more of them - but the processing criteria have not changed under either governments

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woody2014 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2044 NTH EAST VIC Gender:	Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor? Reply #9 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:31pm Peter Freedman wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:27pm: Maqqa, do the Libs pay you penal rates for working weekends? Do the LAB pay you cheep man
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progressiveslol Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17029	Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor? Reply #10 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:32pm Peter Freedman wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:27pm: Maqqa, do the Libs pay you penal rates for working weekends? Are you perhaps jealous because you do it for free.
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Infarction

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #11 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:32pm

Maqqa wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:30pm:

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:24pm:

Can you rule out the possibility that the number includes asylum seekers?

Particularly since large numbers of those that came were resettled here anyhow.

A lot of them are - but alot are not

Since 2008 - there are over 6,000 Sri Lankans being returned from a group of 34,000 boat arrivals

Compare this to 1500 boat arrivals between 2002-2007

So what does that say about Labor's policies since 2008?

You can say that we are catching more of them - but the processing criteria have not changed under either governments

Look at my first post in this thread maqqa. I am not really in disagreement about that.

Now, if TPV's were so effective perhaps you can produce the stats to back that claim up. For example, how many asylum seekers were handed TPV's and how many of those were subsequently sent home?

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Maqqa

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #12 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:45pm

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:32pm:

Maqqa wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:30pm:

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:24pm:

Can you rule out the possibility that the number includes asylum seekers?

Particularly since large numbers of those that came were resettled here anyhow.

A lot of them are - but alot are not

Since 2008 - there are over 6,000 Sri Lankans being returned from a group of 34,000 boat arrivals

Compare this to 1500 boat arrivals between 2002-2007

So what does that say about Labor's policies since 2008?

You can say that we are catching more of them - but the processing criteria have not changed under either governments

Look at my first post in this thread maqqa. I am not really in disagreement about that.

Now, if TPV's were so effective perhaps you can produce the stats to back that claim up. For example, how many asylum seekers were handed TPV's and how many of those were subsequently sent home?

I've never said TPV was the be all and end all.

Remember - this is about boat arrivals.

Total arrivals (Pacific Solution) = arrivals x (1,500 + air)

Total arrivals (Rudd/Gillard) = arrivals x (34,000 + air)

Your TPV figure of 11,000 is inclusive of arrivals by boat and by air

Assuming Air arrivals are the same - if arrivals for 2002-2007 was only 1500 - you would have to say it was pretty effective

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Infarction

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #13 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:54pm

I can't figure out how you are getting to that point but either way, given the policy now days and the pacific solution are all but the same (asides from tpv's, althoughi have read the current alternative is worse), what are the libs offering that is different that will stop the boats?

Clearly rehashing the pacific solution won't work, and in your answer, remember about the conventions and our obligations.

Oh, and have a go at bringing up some actual stats regarding how many TPV's were given to asylum seekers and how many of those were actually sent home.

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« Last Edit: Mar 24^th, 2013 at 2:02pm by Infarction »

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Maqqa

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Re: Why did illegal boat numbers increase under Labor?
Reply #14 - Mar 24^th, 2013 at 2:00pm

Infarction wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 1:54pm:

I can't figure out how you are getting to that point but either way, given the policy now days and the pacific solution are all but the same (asides from tpv's, althoughi have read the current alternative is worse), what are the libs offering that is different that will stop the boats?

Clearly rehashing the pacific solution won't work, and in your answer, remember about the conventions and our obligations.

Total Arrivals = arrival by BOATS + arrivals by AIR

boats and air because that's the only viable way to get to Australia

arrivals by BOATS with TPV policy - 1,500
arrivals by BOATS without TPV policy - 34,000

As for the convention and obligations - were there any court challenges under the LIBs Pacific Solution?

And you are right - the Houston Recommendations are a rehash of the Pacific Solution

We need the people who knew and implemented the Pacific Solution - not a cheap copy

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