http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/poll-position-the-voters-who-hol...

If Julia Gillard wants to win the next election, she probably needs the Labor Party to hold on in the western Sydney seat of Lindsay - one of the very few electorates that has been claimed by the governing party in every election since it was founded.

But the extent of the challenge facing Ms Gillard in the bellwether seat is highlighted by Geraldine Camilleri as she keeps a watchful eye on her two-year-old twins on the bank of the Nepean River.

''The Prime Minister is just thinking about herself,'' Ms Camilleri said. ''They're all just squabbling over little things when they should be getting on with the important things.''

After two momentous days in federal politics, a straw poll in the key electorate reveals little enchantment with either side of politics - a contributing factor, perhaps, to its line-ball status.

With a young, hard-working, home-owning demographic, voters in Lindsay lack rusted-on allegiances and have sided with the government of the day since the electorate was formed in 1984.

Lindsay stretches from Emu Heights at the foot of the Blue Mountains to Croydon on its eastern edge, covering altogether about 339 square kilometres.

The seat has been held by Labor's David Bradbury since 2007, when former prime minister Kevin Rudd won office.

Mr Bradbury beat the Liberals' Jackie Kelly, who had held the seat since former prime minister John Howard's win in 1996.

The present margin is a razor-thin 1.1 per cent.

In the Howard years, Lindsay became emblematic of the type of voter politicians needed to woo if their quest for government were to succeed, while Ms Kelly became a Liberal poster child.

On the main street of Penrith, small business dominates - and at Exclusive Hair owner Nima Nicholas, 49, has had a gutful.

''There's no difference between Labor and Liberal,'' he said. ''They are working for the same system and if they want to change, then they have to change the system. The problem is the engine, not the driver.''

Ms Gillard broke trust with many of his customers when she introduced the carbon tax, Mr Nicholas said. ''People don't trust her because of that … but they don't like Tony Abbott much either.''

Mr Bradbury acknowledges the uphill battle to hold his seat is only made more difficult by leadership tensions in Canberra.

''Interest rates are at record lows, inflation has been kept relatively contained, we've increased the pension … these are things that do go very much to heart of the real concerns that people in communities like mine have,'' he said.

''But with all the colour and attention and distractions of the last week, it makes it difficult for us to communicate how we are addressing some of the issues.''

Cost of living is a big concern. Census data shows 42 per cent of residents are paying off a mortgage, almost 10 percentage points higher than the median for the state.

Joe Grassi is vice-president of the Penrith Valley Chamber of Commerce and sits on the Nepean Blue Mountains Health District Board. A Liberal voter, Mr Grassi said Labor has made a hash of the hung parliament.

''We don't have a government at the moment, with all the infighting … it's just not working properly,'' he said. Still, Mr Grassi is a Bradbury fan. ''I love him. He's a great bloke - I keep telling him he's in the wrong party. He's doing the best he can in an unfortunate situation.''

Liberal candidate Fiona Scott lost to Mr Bradbury in 2010 by fewer than 2000 votes. She says cost of living pressures and Labor's leadership woes are turning voters off.

''People are concerned about their own lives, and cost of living pressures that have been compounded by things like the carbon tax, which doesn't help people here,'' Ms Scott says. But she is not ready to claim victory yet.

Eden Monaro - 1.95%

Robertson - 0.91%

Makin - 4.5%

Maqqa, you'll notice the report you pasted talks about "bell wether" not "weather".

This is because the term has nothing to do with the climate.

A bell wether is a lead sheep in the flock. He wears a bell so the others will follow him, because, as you no doubt know, sheep are very stupid animals.

I would have thought that as the bell wether for all the rightwing sheep on the forum you would be familiar with the term, but there you go.

poor little lefties still grumpy about watching the slow suicide of the ALP?

skippy. wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 6:38pm:


Very similar to the Judas Goat....
The one that leads the lambs to the slaughter without itself being slain.
A very apt description of maqqa....

red baron wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 6:28pm:



This is why she's got a problem nominating her front bench

She knows she'll lose the next election - so who can she reward with 6 months of ministerial duties that she can use to win votes after the election

Gillard holds her seat by 26% - so it's unlikely she'll lose her seat.

But who will be left?

It's the people who she thinks will survive this Sept slaughter that she needs to butter up now.

Peter Freedman wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 8:29pm:


By the autocorrect - I just told you 

skippy. wrote on Mar 24^th, 2013 at 8:33pm:


a case where the autocorrect didn't work

a skippy sounding like a sheep