Australian Politics Forum - Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....

namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #45 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

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MOTR

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #46 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:49am

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am:

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

Exactly, nams. So don't assume that just because people disagree with you they're not aware of these complexities. When you're talking about peer reviewed climate scientists, Occam's Razor suggests otherwise.

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Maqqa

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #47 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:59am

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:49am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am:

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

Exactly, nams. So don't assume that just because people disagree with you they're not aware of these complexities. When you're talking about peer reviewed climate scientists, Occam's Razor suggests otherwise.

The peer review missed the mistake about the Himalaya ice caps melting by 2035 as well

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namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #48 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:02am

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:44am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:28am:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:10am:

Firstly, of course I don't deny negative feedbacks. So don't try and set up some sort of straw man argument. Climate scientists are very aware of positive and negative feedbacks.

Secondly, are you talking about your imaginary negative feedbacks or are you talking about the ones identified in this study.

What are they (negative feedbacks)?
Are they all known, comprehensive and fully understood?
Are they changing in magnitude?

Of course you don't deny them now when you can no longer do so. But now that you mention it I think I do remember it was you saying they were imaginary then when I said that the historical data supports negative feedbacks. You know like the ones that went from about 4 degrees hotter than now to ice ages...so I don't think they were either "swamped" or small.

Freediver is right. What you are suggesting is a positive feedback loop. Perhaos you can identify when the planet was 4 degrees warmer than today and then perhaps you can identify the climate driver which reversed it.

Unlike you I don't know everything about everything and am happy to admit it. I do know however Milankovitch cycles are a steaming pile of horse nuggets and don't come close to explaining magnitudes. So what I also know is you don't have a clue as to what caused it either. But to say it does not exist or that it is minor in effect is lunacy. CO2 also continues to rise after temperature falls.

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namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #49 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:09am

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:49am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am:

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

Exactly, nams. So don't assume that just because people disagree with you they're not aware of these complexities. When you're talking about peer reviewed climate scientists, Occam's Razor suggests otherwise.

Ahhh the rule of best guess...still is no answer to "garbage in, garbage out".

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MOTR

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #50 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:27am

Maqqa wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:59am:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:49am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am:

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

Exactly, nams. So don't assume that just because people disagree with you they're not aware of these complexities. When you're talking about peer reviewed climate scientists, Occam's Razor suggests otherwise.

The peer review missed the mistake about the Himalaya ice caps melting by 2035 as well

What mistake, Maqqa? Not that scientists never make mistakes, but there is a big difference between a mistake and the wilful ignorance that nams is suggesting.

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MOTR

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #51 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:30am

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:09am:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:49am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am:

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

Exactly, nams. So don't assume that just because people disagree with you they're not aware of these complexities. When you're talking about peer reviewed climate scientists, Occam's Razor suggests otherwise.

Ahhh the rule of best guess...still is no answer to "garbage in, garbage out".

Is it more likely that climate scientists are wilfully ignoring the complexities we expect them to study, or is it more likely your assumption of wilful ignorance made by some conspiracy charged nuff nuff is wrong. Hint: I've read plenty of the scientific literature so I'm not guessing.

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MOTR

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #52 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:38am

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:02am:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:44am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:28am:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:10am:

Firstly, of course I don't deny negative feedbacks. So don't try and set up some sort of straw man argument. Climate scientists are very aware of positive and negative feedbacks.

Secondly, are you talking about your imaginary negative feedbacks or are you talking about the ones identified in this study.

What are they (negative feedbacks)?
Are they all known, comprehensive and fully understood?
Are they changing in magnitude?

Of course you don't deny them now when you can no longer do so. But now that you mention it I think I do remember it was you saying they were imaginary then when I said that the historical data supports negative feedbacks. You know like the ones that went from about 4 degrees hotter than now to ice ages...so I don't think they were either "swamped" or small.

Freediver is right. What you are suggesting is a positive feedback loop. Perhaos you can identify when the planet was 4 degrees warmer than today and then perhaps you can identify the climate driver which reversed it.

http://www.usq.edu.au/course/material/eng8001/carbon/Vostoktempplot.gif

Unlike you I don't know everything about everything and am happy to admit it. I do know however Milankovitch cycles are a steaming pile of horse nuggets and don't come close to explaining magnitudes. So what I also know is you don't have a clue as to what caused it either. But to say it does not exist or that it is minor in effect is lunacy. CO2 also continues to rise after temperature falls.

Identify the period in time and I'll have a look at it.

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namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #53 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:41am

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:30am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:09am:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:49am:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:45am:

freediver wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 10:31am:

Nam I think you are talking about positive feedback loops.

No...not that they don't exist...in complex systems...and I think everyone would agreed that the planet is a complex system...effects go in both directions constantly and reactively seeking equalibrium. Only someone with a blinkered, myopic one sided agenda would pretend otherwise.

Exactly, nams. So don't assume that just because people disagree with you they're not aware of these complexities. When you're talking about peer reviewed climate scientists, Occam's Razor suggests otherwise.

Ahhh the rule of best guess...still is no answer to "garbage in, garbage out".

Is it more likely that climate scientists are wilfully ignoring the complexities we expect them to study, or is it more likely your assumption of wilful ignorance made by some conspiracy charged nuff nuff is wrong. Hint: I've read plenty of the scientific literature so I'm not guessing.

OK...in order that's a yes.
...a no...
and I guess your reading material falls into the garbage in, garbage out category....Milankovitch cycles...you're a crack-up...

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to.... Reply #54 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:47am What about Milankovitch cycles are rubbish. Are you denying they exist. Or are you denying they influence global temperatures. To speed things up, how about you link me to who you are parroting.
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namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #55 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 12:32pm

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:47am:

What about Milankovitch cycles are rubbish. Are you denying they exist. Or are you denying they influence global temperatures.

To speed things up, how about you link me to who you are parroting.

I read widely rather than selectively from lots of sources. Milankovitch cycles exist although what they do, when they do it and what they are responsible for are a source of considerable debate and widely conflicting senarios on apparently the same data even among ardent advocates eg Imbrie v Berger and Loutre. And yes they have temperature effects but the magnitude is tiny compared the solar cycle and ocean configuration so in terms of explaining ice ages they are absolutely 100% garbage...ask any astronomer.
The only parrot here is you.

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MOTR

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #56 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 2:08pm

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 12:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:47am:

What about Milankovitch cycles are rubbish. Are you denying they exist. Or are you denying they influence global temperatures.

To speed things up, how about you link me to who you are parroting.

I read widely rather than selectively from lots of sources. Milankovitch cycles exist although what they do, when they do it and what they are responsible for are a source of considerable debate and widely conflicting senarios on apparently the same data even among ardent advocates eg Imbrie v Berger and Loutre. And yes they have temperature effects but the magnitude is tiny compared the solar cycle and ocean configuration so in terms of explaining ice ages they are absolutely 100% garbage...ask any astronomer.
The only parrot here is you.

So what is it that magnifies these orbital forcings, nams?

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namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #57 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 2:26pm

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 2:08pm:

namnugenot wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 12:32pm:

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 11:47am:

What about Milankovitch cycles are rubbish. Are you denying they exist. Or are you denying they influence global temperatures.

To speed things up, how about you link me to who you are parroting.

I read widely rather than selectively from lots of sources. Milankovitch cycles exist although what they do, when they do it and what they are responsible for are a source of considerable debate and widely conflicting senarios on apparently the same data even among ardent advocates eg Imbrie v Berger and Loutre. And yes they have temperature effects but the magnitude is tiny compared the solar cycle and ocean configuration so in terms of explaining ice ages they are absolutely 100% garbage...ask any astronomer.
The only parrot here is you.

So what is it that magnifies these orbital forcings, nams?

Who said anything about orbital forcing being magnified or that they had anything to do with climate other than very, very small discrete effects...you are familiar with small and big arn't you Motr...small and far away...

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MOTR Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6646	Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to.... Reply #58 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 3:43pm So you start with considerable debate and end with absolute certainty. What makes you so certain? Let's be specific. What does Imbrie say. Does he believe orbital forcings are insignificant.
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namnugenot

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Re: Global warming is causing Antarctic ice to....
Reply #59 - Apr 1^st, 2013 at 6:30pm

MOTR wrote on Apr 1^st, 2013 at 3:43pm:

So you start with considerable debate and end with absolute certainty. What makes you so certain?

Let's be specific. What does Imbrie say. Does he believe orbital forcings are insignificant.

No he doesn't and nor do the other 2 dopes...what does that matter...the fact is they totally agree that Milankovitch cycles cause an effect but they are worlds apart in respect of looking at the same cyclical events as to when things occur....which means probably the three people with what could be expected as the best knowledge of Milankovich cycles interpret them in ways that make reading the entrails of sheep or reading tea leaves an exact science. Or are you saying they are in total agreement having read them. Milankovicth cycles do not explain the MAGNITUDE of the effects, in some instances the absence of effects and events that preceed the "forcings" that caused them. THEY ARE UTTER AND COMPLETE CRAP AS EXPLANATIONS FOR ANYTHING ABOVE MINOR CLIMATE EFFECTS.

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