Karnal
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Afghanistan's Central Asia, Red.
With the exception of India and Pakiatan, there WILL be a form of peace when Iran and China get control. If you can call it peace - a Pax Sino-Irania.
The Pax Amerikana has hardly delivered peace to the Middle East, and they've been there since the end of WWII. The Ruskies were much more successful in the Soviet satellites.
Central Asia has been part of one empire or another since Genghis khan. In more recent times, Afghanistan has been unique in this regard. It managed to kick out the British and the Russians, and fool the Amerikans into playing their games.
Peace will only come with contracts. Whoever builds the highways and controls the gas pipelines will run the region. The warlords know which side their bread is buttered. They'll only cause problems if they're kept out of the picture: the contracts, the skim.
The future of Afghanistan is an ever-shifting set of alliances between the warlords, the Pashtun Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban, and states like China and Iran. The warlords will continue to switch teams, based on the highest bid and the relationships they form.
Once, tribal alliances were important. Thanks to the Amerikans, the warlords have become greedy and aspirational. Once they were warriors. Now they all want a compound, rocket launchers and a fleet of Toyotas and Mercedes.
Amerika has spoilt the warlords. Who knows? They may decide to re-join the Taliban when they come back to power.
The future of Afghanistan depends on these alliances. Karzai has his hopes set on a condo in Florida.
We shall see, friends.
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