Assange's Senate chances slim even with preferences

Date April 17, 2013

Jonathan Swan

National political reporter

Julian Assange's WikiLeaks Party has generated considerable interest among voters but probably not enough for him to be elected to the Senate, a new poll shows.

Support for Mr Assange and the WikiLeaks Party was highest in Victoria, where 15 per cent of the state said they would consider voting for the party, according to the Fairfax-Nielsen poll of 1400 voters.

In a half-Senate election, a candidate needs just over 14 per cent of the vote to be elected, so Mr Assange would win a seat in Victoria without preferences only if every voter considering voting for him actually did so.

Mr Assange will be unable to campaign in Australia because he is confined to the Ecuadorean embassy in London. The WikiLeaks founder has been granted political asylum there after losing court challenges to stop him being sent to Sweden to answer questions about an alleged sexual assault.

Two polling experts rated the WikiLeaks Party's electoral chances, even in Victoria, as ''highly unlikely''.

''I think [Mr Assange's] candidacy looks credible from these numbers but I still think, on those numbers, it would be a very big ask to win,'' Nielsen pollster John Stirton said. ''He's in the ballpark of the support he needs but he's got to convert every single one … and I think that's highly unlikely.''

ABC election analyst Antony Green said Mr Assange was ''in the mix'' but only if ''lots of other minor parties'' give him their preferences. Mr Assange's chances on first preferences were ''about nil''.

Mr Green expects the WikiLeaks Party to win about 3 per cent of the vote nationally and perhaps 4 per cent in Victoria.

The WikiLeaks Party stands for ''truthfulness and the free flow of information'', according to its website. Its 11-person national council includes a mathematician, a scientist, a digital archivist and a social media consultant with the Sea Shepherd anti-whaling group.

Mr Assange's problem is that to win a seat, he needs to steal votes from left-leaning parties but the state he is running in - Victoria - has the most resilient support for Labor and the Greens.

''It's the one state where Assange doesn't put a left seat at risk,'' Mr Green said.

Nationally, 69 per cent of voters say they know ''a lot'' or ''a little'' about Mr Assange and WikiLeaks, and, of these, 19 per cent would consider voting for the party - about 13 per cent support across the population. So, even if every voter that considered voting for WikiLeaks actually did, the party would still rely on preferences to win seats.

Support for Mr Assange and WikiLeaks was second highest in NSW, with about 14 per cent saying they would consider voting for his party, and lowest in the ACT, with only 5 per cent support.

The national poll has a margin of error of 2.6 per cent and the state figures have a margin of error of about 5 per cent.