Australian Politics Forum - H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops

progressiveslol

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H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Apr 19^th, 2013 at 10:22pm

New data falsifies basis of man-made global warming alarm, shows water vapor feedback is negative

Oops. There is a feedback the AGW cult was looking forward too.

Physicist Clive Best has analyzed the latest NASA satellite and radiosonde data to find that global water vapor has declined despite the consensus belief among climate scientists that it would rise in response to man-made carbon dioxide. Dire predictions of global warming all rely on positive feedback from water vapor. The argument goes that as surface temperatures rise so more water will evaporate from the oceans thereby amplifying temperatures because H2O itself is a strong greenhouse gas. The fact that water vapor has instead declined indicates water vapor feedback is negative, overwhelming alleged warming from CO2, and accounting for the stall in global temperatures over the past 16+ years. As Dr. Best notes, "All climate models (that I am aware of) predict exactly the opposite. Something is clearly amiss with theory. Is it not now time for “consensus” scientists to have a rethink?"

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/new-data-falsifies-basis-of-man-mad...

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« Last Edit: Apr 19^th, 2013 at 10:28pm by progressiveslol »

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops Reply #1 - Apr 22^nd, 2013 at 2:28pm iNTERESTING!
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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 10982 Australia Gender:	Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops Reply #2 - Jul 24^th, 2013 at 2:34pm What want to know is why isn't this front page news. And shown on prime time TV.
Back to top	1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax 2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos IP Logged

muso

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #3 - Jul 24^th, 2013 at 9:27pm

It's a variation of the "No warming since 1998" theme. Too short a period, plus cherry picking the time frame.

It's also a very simplistic strawman. Nobody ever said that the factor affecting short term global water concentration was CO2 concentration. The main driving force is temperature.

As you know perfectly well, there has been a recent short term reduction in solar irradiance.

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Ajax

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #4 - Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am

muso wrote on Jul 24^th, 2013 at 9:27pm:

It's a variation of the "No warming since 1998" theme. Too short a period, plus cherry picking the time frame.

Muso there has been NO warming since 1998 when we had the El Nino, temperatures after 1998 have not surpassed the 1998 value.

Unequivocal warming??????????......where???????...in their compuetr models...LOL

No themes or variations.....just facts!

Quote:

It's also a very simplistic strawman. Nobody ever said that the factor affecting short term global water concentration was CO2 concentration. The main driving force is temperature.

Now are you playing with words here????

The IPCC computer simulated models say that as more manmade CO2 gathers at the equator so then this produces more and more water vapor to cause their ficticious runaway greenhouse effect.

But ofcourse emprical data cannot find their hot spot, their accumulated manmade CO2 or any build up of water vapor.

Quote:

As you know perfectly well, there has been a recent short term reduction in solar irradiance.

Thats why we're not going to see any warming for the next couple of decades.

Which means that we have been taxed on the air we breath for nothing, cause the IPCC is dead wrong.

Ofcourse in the mean time they would have created a $2 trillion dollar market.

Now they will probably say that even though the IPCC have got it wrong the world's econmy rests on the trading of carbon credits therefore we have to keep it.

Hang those greenies..............

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« Last Edit: Jul 25^th, 2013 at 11:02am by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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muso

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #5 - Jul 25^th, 2013 at 9:55pm

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

Muso there has been NO warming since 1998 when we had the El Nino, temperatures after 1998 have not surpassed the 1998 value.

As I said, it's far too short a period. There have been previous short-term fluctuations, but the overall trend is that of rising temperatures.

Quote:

Now are you playing with words here????

The IPCC computer simulated models say that as more manmade CO2 gathers at the equator so then this produces more and more water vapor to cause their ficticious runaway greenhouse effect.

A few strawmen there. You obviously haven't read the IPCC Reports. You prefer to get second hand disinformation.
It's fairly simple. As temperature varies- increases or decreases, the partial pressure of water in the atmosphere increases or decreases in response. It doesn't matter what forcings cause that temperature rise (or fall) - the result is the same. If the net forcing remains at a similar level (Solar forcing (input) plus radiative forcing (reducing output)) then the water vapour concentration will remain at about the same level. (There are other forcings of course)
Quote:

Quote:

As you know perfectly well, there has been a recent short term reduction in solar irradiance.

Thats why we're not going to see any warming for the next couple of decades.

Is that a pious hope, or do you have an extremely good crystal ball? Don't tell me that you're starting to believe scientists?

Quote:

Hang those greenies..............

- or perhaps you mean scientists who don't fit your personal agenda? The average greenie would have as little a clue about the underlying atmospheric science as you have demonstrated.

I've never seen any scientific papers published by Al Gore either. Isn't he just a politician and a mouthpiece? Criticising Al Gore is a bit like criticising a TV anchorman. You might as well criticise Arnie Schwarzenegger for that matter.

I'm not commenting on the implementation of carbon taxes. It may well be that any required corrective action will end up being a lot more expensive in the future.

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« Last Edit: Jul 25^th, 2013 at 11:15pm by muso »

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 138017 Gender:	Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops Reply #6 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 12:43am muso wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 9:55pm: As I said, it's far too short a period. What's a short period? What's a suitably long period? Who determines these periods? Is it subjective? Please explain.
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rabbitoh07

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #7 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 6:50am

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

muso wrote on Jul 24^th, 2013 at 9:27pm:

It's a variation of the "No warming since 1998" theme. Too short a period, plus cherry picking the time frame.

Muso there has been NO warming since 1998 when we had the El Nino, temperatures after 1998 have not surpassed the 1998 value.

Don't be silly. You have been fooled by the nonsense David Rose writes in the Daily Mail

THere has been warming since 1998.
It is clear and unambiguous

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

Unequivocal warming??????????......where???????...in their compuetr models...LOL

In the oceans and in the melting of ice caps and glaciers, idiot.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jul/22/climate-change-slowdown-warming-oc...

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muso

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #8 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 6:55am

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 12:43am:

muso wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 9:55pm:

As I said, it's far too short a period.

What's a short period?

What's a suitably long period?

Who determines these periods?

Is it subjective?

Please explain.

The main short term periodicity is related to solar cycles, which have a period of approximately 11 years. (plus of course the Southern Oscillation index) It's pretty obvious that if you focus on a 10 year period, or even a 15 year period, you're going to see these short term trends relating to these cycles.

What does that tell you in terms of long term trends? Obviously it's not very useful. It makes more sense to look at the overall changes over a much longer period. Typically the standard averaging period is 30 years. Climate by definition is concerned with long term trends.

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« Last Edit: Jul 26^th, 2013 at 9:47am by muso »

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Rider

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #9 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 7:10am

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 6:50am:

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

muso wrote on Jul 24^th, 2013 at 9:27pm:

It's a variation of the "No warming since 1998" theme. Too short a period, plus cherry picking the time frame.

Muso there has been NO warming since 1998 when we had the El Nino, temperatures after 1998 have not surpassed the 1998 value.

Don't be silly. You have been fooled by the nonsense David Rose writes in the Daily Mail

THere has been warming since 1998.
It is clear and unambiguous

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

Unequivocal warming??????????......where???????...in their compuetr models...LOL

In the oceans and in the melting of ice caps and glaciers, idiot.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jul/22/climate-change-slowdown-warming-oc...

Soooooo....your tabloid source has a bigger dick than his tabloid source Grin

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rabbitoh07

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #10 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 7:50am

Rider wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 7:10am:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 6:50am:

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

muso wrote on Jul 24^th, 2013 at 9:27pm:

It's a variation of the "No warming since 1998" theme. Too short a period, plus cherry picking the time frame.

Muso there has been NO warming since 1998 when we had the El Nino, temperatures after 1998 have not surpassed the 1998 value.

Don't be silly. You have been fooled by the nonsense David Rose writes in the Daily Mail

THere has been warming since 1998.
It is clear and unambiguous

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

Unequivocal warming??????????......where???????...in their compuetr models...LOL

In the oceans and in the melting of ice caps and glaciers, idiot.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jul/22/climate-change-slowdown-warming-oc...

Soooooo....your tabloid source has a bigger dick than his tabloid source Grin

No. My tabloid source actually referred to published science:

The heat content of the world ocean for the 0-700 m layer increased by 16.7x1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 Wm-2 (per unit area of the world ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18ºC. The world ocean accounts for approximately 90% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. The thermosteric component of sea level trend is 0.54 mm yr-1 for the 0-2000 m layer and 0.41 mm yr-1 for the 0-700 m layer of the world ocean for 1955-2010.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL051106.shtml

His tabloid source was a silly opinion piece.

Do you understand the difference?

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greggerypeccary

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #11 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 9:41am

muso wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 6:55am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 12:43am:

muso wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 9:55pm:

As I said, it's far too short a period.

What's a short period?

What's a suitably long period?

Who determines these periods?

Is it subjective?

Please explain.

The main short term periodicity is related to solar cycles, which have a period of approximately 11 years. It's pretty obvious that if you focus on a 10 year period, or even a 15 year period, you're going to see these short term trends relating to these cycles.

What does that tell you in terms of long term trends? Obviously it's not very useful. It makes more sense to look at the overall changes over a much longer period. Typically the standard averaging period is 30 years. Climate by definition is concerned with long term trends.

I understand perfectly well what climate is concerned with.

My question is, who says 30 years is "long term"?

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Rider

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #12 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 10:52am

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 7:50am:

Rider wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 7:10am:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 6:50am:

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

muso wrote on Jul 24^th, 2013 at 9:27pm:

It's a variation of the "No warming since 1998" theme. Too short a period, plus cherry picking the time frame.

Muso there has been NO warming since 1998 when we had the El Nino, temperatures after 1998 have not surpassed the 1998 value.

Don't be silly. You have been fooled by the nonsense David Rose writes in the Daily Mail

THere has been warming since 1998.
It is clear and unambiguous

Ajax wrote on Jul 25^th, 2013 at 10:54am:

Unequivocal warming??????????......where???????...in their compuetr models...LOL

In the oceans and in the melting of ice caps and glaciers, idiot.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jul/22/climate-change-slowdown-warming-oc...

Soooooo....your tabloid source has a bigger dick than his tabloid source Grin

No. My tabloid source actually referred to published science:

The heat content of the world ocean for the 0-700 m layer increased by 16.7x1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 Wm-2 (per unit area of the world ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18ºC. The world ocean accounts for approximately 90% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. The thermosteric component of sea level trend is 0.54 mm yr-1 for the 0-2000 m layer and 0.41 mm yr-1 for the 0-700 m layer of the world ocean for 1955-2010.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL051106.shtml

His tabloid source was a silly opinion piece.

Do you understand the difference?

I do, do you know how many 10's of thousands of years it will take for ocean heat increase (naturally occurring or otherwise) to affect surface temperatures and induce any statistically significant anythingness??

There is absolutely no sane reason to be concerned. Time to put the boffins back in their boxes till they can come up with a cure for cancer or something that will actually bring benefit to mankind.

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muso

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #13 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 11:11am

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 9:41am:

I understand perfectly well what climate is concerned with.

My question is, who says 30 years is "long term"?

I didn't actually use the term "long term" related to the 30 year averaging period.

However, to answer your question directly about who chose the 30 year averaging period, it was the World Meteorological Organisation. A better question might be - Why do they settle on 30 years (The Classical Period). I can answer that if you want. It's to do with natural variability and how you can determine long term trends over any particular period that you're interested in.

There are a number of natural forcings that affect the global temperature. We're seeing the effect of a temporary drop in solar forcing over the last few years, but other forcings include sulphates, high cloud, low cloud etc.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

WMO Website - Look under FAQ.

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forcings.jpg (70 KB | 42 )

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greggerypeccary

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Re: H2O decreasing while CO2 rises! Oops
Reply #14 - Jul 26^th, 2013 at 12:23pm

muso wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 11:11am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 26^th, 2013 at 9:41am:

I understand perfectly well what climate is concerned with.

My question is, who says 30 years is "long term"?

I didn't actually use the term "long term" related to the 30 year averaging period.

However, to answer your question directly about who chose the 30 year averaging period, it was the World Meteorological Organisation. A better question might be - Why do they settle on 30 years (The Classical Period). I can answer that if you want. It's to do with natural variability and how you can determine long term trends over any particular period that you're interested in.

There are a number of natural forcings that affect the global temperature. We're seeing the effect of a temporary drop in solar forcing over the last few years, but other forcings include sulphates, high cloud, low cloud etc.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

WMO Website - Look under FAQ.

An arbitrary number. Nothing more.

To consider 30 years "long term", in this context, is incredibly naive.

The arrogance of humans is astounding at times.

Our concept of "long term" is based on our own human experiences. Incredibly narrow-minded and naive.

Future generations will look back at the AGW cult and laugh at them the same way we laugh at flat-earthers now.

Such is life.

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