The former AWU Secretary reportedly holds sway over 7 Caucus vote and is potentially a catalysts for other Gillard supporters to switch side.

There is no doubt he wants to be leader of the ALP and PM

But he's not done his time

If he jumps ship he's a powerbroker at best and not a PM material as yet.

If he does not jump ship - this power broker status is somewhat weakened. And his PM ambition won't be realised for another decade if Gillard leaders them to the next election

So what does he do?

Jump ship and be branded as a traitor

Or be known as a lapdog?

Yes, but Rudd could pull the Simon Creen treatment on him. The old double-cross.

I’d play the lapdog. If he keeps his seat, what’s he got to lose?

Rudd won’t win either, and they’ll need a new-blood opposition leader when they go down.

Shorten should stay put.