If there is one thing that has marked Labor under Julia Gillard is has been their at-times incomprehensibly bad political strategy.  Whoever has been advising them needs to be sacked.  Most political strategies have been marked by failure, humiliation and most importantly, more votes for Tony Abbott’s watchful Coalition. Part of the reason that we have had so little policy and discussion from the Coalition is that Labor has been so hell-bent on self-immolation and division that there has been no room - and no point - for Abbott to change the topic of discussion. But after the remarkable events of last week’s Rudd Resurrection, a few have started to ask if it was all a con; a political masterstroke to save Labor from the executioner’s block in September. Normally, the idea of a master-stroke of any kind from the hapless inheritors of the Hawke and Keating legacy would be unthinkable after the absolute turkeys of the last two years.  But perhaps, the best was left for last.

Imagine if you will, that you are Julia Gillard sitting in your ivory tower with your faithful Treasurer at your feet contemplating the polls as they fall faster than gravity, wondering how history and the labor movement will remember you.  Probably not well, given that the very continued existence of the ALP was being questioned of recent weeks. So what to do?  Well, Kevin Rudd of course! Every failed leader needs a scapegoat and who better than the biggest ego in the country?  After all, even Rudd’s closest supporters recognise that he is a narcissistic egotist in love with himself more than anything else.  Not that narcissism and ego are in short supply on the front benches of either side of the House, but Rudd leaves them all in the shade. Rudd’s all-encompassing ego would have him take on the job of Captain of the Titanic just as it was about to strike the iceberg without a second thought.

Has anyone thought much about what the Rudd Government is actually going to do with its time in office, fleeting though it will be?  Parliament will not sit again until the next election, therefore there is no legislation to pass. Cabinet will sit and discuss what exactly?  New policies and legislation that everyone in the room has zero hope of ever being passed in the next parliament because they won’t be in power?  What will new Treasurer Bowen actually do in the couple of weeks remaining to this beleaguered and rather pointless government?

Julia Gillard never lost an election.  It could be argued she never won one either but still, she remains undefeated while Kevin Rudd is about to go 1-1 and you are only as good as your last innings.  And this is where the master-plan starts to come into play.  Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan weren’t merely polite at losing power. They seemed positively serene, even happy.  After years of saying they would rather skewer themselves publically than support Rudd, here were a sizable number of the caucus doing precisely that. An obvious reason was to try and save some seats by grabbing some of Rudd’s popularity, but while that is true, the timing is suspicious given that the argument has been true for a year or more. Tony Abbott refused to have a vote of no confidence which seemed a little odd given the state of the parliament. It had some chance of success. But perhaps he too caught a whiff in the air that there were other plans being cast about and it was perhaps best to distance himself from them.  After all, an election is due in a couple months anyhow.

And so it was, that with just one day of the parliament left to run there was an amazing leadership ballot brought on by a supposed petition that no one has seen in which a number of Gillard supporters suddenly changed sides and anointed Kevin Rudd as the Scapegoat PM. If Gillard wanted to keep the Prime Ministership all she had to do was to keep Rudd at bay for 24 hours.  After that, parliament would not have sat to support a new PM and any leadership change would have provoked a constitutional crisis - something the ALP has some bitter experience with. And so, with a great rush, a leadership challenge was initiated and Gillard lost, leaving the sinking ship with a new captain. It is hard not to believe that the entire thing was orchestrated by Gillard, Swan and Shorten to both save seats and reputations but also, to permanently remove the Rudd threat.
 
The ALP takes a dim view of losing leaders and with rare exception, sends them off to the ex-leader’s home where they can keep out of the way of the new generation of True Believers.  The plan is perfect - almost.  Rudd destroyed, hung by his own ego and hubris. Gillard and Swan with reputations if not restored, certainly vastly improved. And in the final key, Bill Shorten cemented as the leader of the post-election ALP with an actual decent number of members of caucus instead of the mini-bus he was anticipating. And with the improved primary vote, the slim hope of an Abbot senate majority evaporates. It’s all win - except for Kevin Rudd who leads the party to a substantial loss..

There is only one catch.  What if Kevin Rudd pulls of the near impossible and scores a comeback win that makes Paul Keating’s 1993 victory look like amateur hour?  Shorten is gone. Gillard and Swan look like serial losers and Rudd could turn the country into a monarchy and be crowned King if he wished. And let’s face it.  His ego could support it!

to many mushrooms tonight longy? you know you weren't supposed to have more than one of those 'special' ones.

I haven't paid much attention to this circus, but as soon as I heard Gillard would quit politics entirely, I knew something machiavellian was going on.

Just perhaps she's quitting because it's the right thing to do for someone who's just lost the top job?

That Rudd sat out his time on the back benches and plotted his own return shows what a complete scumbag he is.

For nothing more than a spectator, Longy just takes politics way too seriously.

Ambassador  in Afghanistan  is my bet for Gillard.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:


Big egos are a problem only for people delusional about their own worth. You can hardly call Kevin delusional when he's popular.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:


There is nothing for them to do except campaign for the election. They kept Julia this long because it was likely that Labor would lose support of the Greens and Independents if they switched leaders. Now it doesn't matter.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:


I think you're reading too much into it. There was no master plan. To say so is to suggest that those involved in the leadership spill were in control of the circumstances. You would either have to be a god, a psychic or an Illuminati. Nobody has that kind of power.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:


Tony considers Kevin a worthy opponent. Julia was hardly a challenge for him. He didn't mind cutting off her head in Parliament.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:


It's possible, but your theory hasn't been proven true yet. Kevin has to lose first. I doubt whether Wayne and Julia even care what happens next. They believed they were going to lose. They believed supporting Kevin would be too humiliating for the Party. They were prepared to go down with the sinking ship. I doubt whether revenge would be on their minds, because it certainly wouldn't be on mine. I would be grateful for the opportunity to serve in a government. With the Gillard government in its last days, they would have been satisfied with what they got. Besides, they got through three years of a minority government. They're proud of their achievements.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:


Oh come on now, you're starting to get a bit silly here.

Aussie wrote on Jun 29^th, 2013 at 7:03pm:


she only had to hang off one day but SHE called the ballot.  Why?