Australian Politics Forum - The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)

ian

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 9451

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #90 - Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:25pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 7:45pm:

ian wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 7:08pm:

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 2:02pm:

[
As I have pointed out the DP does not always cause crime to increase, it does in the US but lots of weird sh1t happens only in the US so I wouldn't recommend that place as an example of what is good or bad.

No it doesnt, I have pointed this out before to Longliar. Since the 90's violent crime has been decreasing in the US, this directly corresponds with the reinstatement of the death penalty in many states.

total BS. for starters you provide no statistics other than nationmaster which is a known source of bogus stats. and the death penalty was reintroduced in 1976. so what happened in the 20 years after it started and the 90s when you say violent crime reduced (without evidence of course)? no answer, I bet.

and of course the 74 studies that use REAL stats and REAL statistical and research methodologies that come to the opposite conclusion to you are are wrong. because....?

The death panlty was reintroduced state by state nitwit, Most recently as the 90s in some states. The evidecne is on Wikipedia, its not debatable. And I have previously posted links, i dont see where I need to post them over and over again because you got in a huff the first time, Priincess.

Back to top

IP Logged

greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 137428 Gender:	Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2) Reply #91 - Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:27pm ian wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:25pm: The evidecne is on Wikipedia, its not debatable. OK. I literally laughed out load at that one.
Back to top	IP Logged

greggerypeccary

Gold Member

Online

Australian Politics

Posts: 137428
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #92 - Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:34pm

Bobby. wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 12:03pm:

Greggery,
Can't agree with you there bobby.
Quote:

I'm against premeditated state-sanctioned killing, and I'm also against mandatory sentencing.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

Too nice a day to be discussing this anyway.

I'm off to enjoy the sunshine (and food, and wine) in the wonderful Swan Valley.

Have a good day bobby.

It is a nice day.
We'll discuss it another time.

It was a wonderful day bobby.

Sunny and about 18 degrees. The Swan Valley was divine.

Thank goodness we don't have the death penalty for overindulgence.

Considering the amount of German beer, local wine, and Schweinshaxe I had today, I'd surely end up with a noose around my neck.

Back to the discussion bobby ...

Back to top

IP Logged

ian

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 9451

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #93 - Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:45pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

ian wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:25pm:

The evidecne is on Wikipedia, its not debatable.

OK. I literally laughed out load at that one.

Grin

Of course you did, you wouldnt debate the actual statistics involved. That would require intellectual effort. Afer all you have had a hard day in the Swan valley with your special friends while drinking the latest trendy foreign sounding alcoholic beverage. Sounds so divine grego.

Back to top

IP Logged

greggerypeccary

Gold Member

Online

Australian Politics

Posts: 137428
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #94 - Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:53pm

ian wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:45pm:

Afer all you have had a hard day in the Swan valley with your special friends while drinking the latest trendy foreign sounding alcoholic beverage. Sounds so divine grego.

It was hard ian.

Deciding which beer to have was not as easy as you may think.

http://www.duckstein.com.au/index.php/our_beer

Back to top

IP Logged

BigOl64

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 14438
Townsville QLD
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #95 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:50am

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 7:34pm:

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 2:10pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 1:18pm:

so 74 studies which conclude that the DP fails as a deterrent and you supply one contrary example
- Japan. This example shows a reduction in ALL Crime and unless you think the DP acts as a deterrent to crimes where it does not apply then how do you explain that? Your example categorically fails to make any link whatsoever between the DP and the drop in crime - because none exists.

correlation does not mean causation and in a case where for example THEFT has halved are you going to attribute that to the DP?

That is my point exactly. so unless these 74 studies prove conclusively that the DP causes an increase in violent crime, I'm calling bullsh1t.

You would have to stop the DP in those same areas and observe a statistically relevant decrease in crime for it to be causal. If it if it remained the same or increased then the findings of those studies are total crap.

It could be just a violent sh1thole and it has the DP, at best these studies are faulty at worst they are fraudulent.

At least with japan you can see that the place has the DP, doesn't mind using it and it is a very safe place, unlike Australia.

74 studies and you want to just presume they are wrong and that their methodologies are flawed?

Japan has ALWAYS had the death penalty post war (and I think pre-war as well) the reduction of crime is a relatively recent thing in the last 10-15 years. So the DP has had zero effect on reducing crime since it actually increasing for 50 of those post-war years. whatever has reduced crime in the last 10015 years is worth researching but it is certainly not the DP since they executed over 600 people well before the crime rate drop.

Dude you are running of straws to grasp. Grin

You have no idea and nor do those supposed 74 studies whether the DP has a positive of negative effect on anything but the person being executed, that we do know this did have a positive effect.

Those studies are at best an 'educated' guess based on suspect data interpretation at worst a fraudulent attempt to verify bias based on personal belief. I'm thinking a few from column one and a whole sh1t load from column two.

Back to top

IP Logged

ian

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 9451

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #96 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:56am

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:50am:

Dude you are running of straws to grasp. Grin

You have no idea and nor do those supposed 74 studies whether the DP has a positive of negative effect on anything but the person being executed, that we do know this did have a positive effect.

Those studies are at best an 'educated' guess based on suspect data interpretation at worst a fraudulent attempt to verify bias based on personal belief. I'm thinking a few from column one and a whole sh1t load from column two.

i would suggest that your analysis of the data is much more accurate than Longliars. At the least we can infer that the DP does not cause violent crime to rise as some are suggesting.

Back to top

IP Logged

Bobby.

Gold Member

Online

Australian Politics

Posts: 104640
Melbourne
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #97 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 11:02am

ian wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:56am:

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:50am:

Dude you are running of straws to grasp. Grin

You have no idea and nor do those supposed 74 studies whether the DP has a positive of negative effect on anything but the person being executed, that we do know this did have a positive effect.

Those studies are at best an 'educated' guess based on suspect data interpretation at worst a fraudulent attempt to verify bias based on personal belief. I'm thinking a few from column one and a whole sh1t load from column two.

i would suggest that your analysis of the data is much more accurate than Longliars. At the least we can infer that the DP does not cause violent crime to rise as some are suggesting.

In the case of Adrian Ernest Bayley crime would
have been reduced by 22 rapes & one murder.

A good result.

Back to top

IP Logged

ian

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 9451

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #98 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 11:11am

WA has over 2800 child sex offenders in the community who are considered at risk of reoffending. The odds are if you live in WA there is at least one living in your local area. This is the justice system gone crazy because we have gone down the road of leniency and not understanding that these people can not be rehabilitated, not one of them. If we wanted to lock them all up we would have to build at least 4 more maximum security prisons. And thats just in WA. Now imagine how many of these predators are wandering around the rest of Australia due to the efforts of people like Longweekend. And they will all reoffend, every single one of the. Many will never be caught. If prison teaches them anything it teaches them to be more careful the next time.

.com.au/news/western-australia/thousands-of-sex-offenders-in-wa-and-800-classed-
as-high-risk/story-fnhocxo3-1226675300190
Thousands of sex offenders in WA and 800 classed as 'high risk'

THERE are 800 child sex offenders in WA who police fear are at a high risk of reoffending.

The sex-offender management squad is monitoring 2849 reportable offenders who pose a risk to children.

Of those, 170 are considered dangerous enough to be labelled a "very high" risk of hurting children again and must report to police at least once a month.

Another 630 are considered a "high" risk and have to check in once every three months.

Another 1694 offenders are considered a "medium" or "low" risk and only report to police once or twice a year.

Back to top

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #99 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 12:19pm

Lionel Edriess wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 6:55pm:

Kat wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 6:48pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 4:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 1:55pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 1:51pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 1:49pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 1:46pm:

If Bayley had a twin - Grin

Longy - are you drinking the cooking sherry?

the point is YOU DONT KNOW and that is enough reason to imply you cannot know his guilt in absolute terms.

but as usual, you miss the point. what about people found guilty for murder on purely cirucmstantial evidence? happens all he time. what about forensics which were contaminated or wrong? What about corrupt cops and prosecutors planting or destroying evidence? It happens.

that's why you can never guarantee a righteous verdict and unless you can do so then you are effectively saying that you dont have a problem with executing the inoocent.

Can you read?

I said

No doubt whatsoever

as decided by whom? ABSOLUTES like that mean you ahve 100% elimated every possibility of error corruption or mistake. not possible. Every branch of science (bar Climate science of course) says that its discipline is based on THEORYS and precious few axiomatic facts.

you really dont seem to understand the notion of absolute anything, not absolute truth. How do you define ABOLUTELY CERTIAN into law. we have reasonable doubt because we already know that it is the best we can do. If we could be absolutely certain wouldnt it make sense to apply this newly discovered standard of truth to ALL criminal cases?

But with: Julian Knight, Adrian Bayley, & Martin Bryant
there was no doubt & they are receiving good treatment in jail -
3 meals a day & color TV at our expense.
Has justice been served?

Justice? Yes.

But then, the DP has nothing to do with justice, it's ALL about vengeance.

No, it's not.

If it was ALL about vengeance, Jill Meagher would still be alive. Her murderer would still be behind bars - if indeed he was still breathing.

The DP might still carry some risk for the innocent - but so does the release, early or otherwise, of recidivists.

Shall we compare the numbers of innocents lost on either side?

it would be a fools errand and one you would lose even it it were possibly to estimate numbers on events that have not happened. You might change your turn if it were you facing the gallows for a murder you were innocent of but convicted on the basis of flawed or corrupt evidence. You would eventually get your conviction overturned as they often are - but you'd be dead. SORRY!

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

ian Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 9451	Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2) Reply #100 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 12:20pm Theres 2800 in WA who we know are guilty beyond any doubt we can start with those.
Back to top	IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #101 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 12:21pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

ian wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 8:25pm:

The evidecne is on Wikipedia, its not debatable.

OK. I literally laughed out load at that one.

Grin

It was a goodie... Nationmaster and Wikipedia as impeccable sources. It doesnt get more ludicrous than that. But the Singapore Law Society's articles on Singaporean law are worthless according to ian-the-fool.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #102 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 12:23pm

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:50am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 7:34pm:

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 2:10pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 1:18pm:

so 74 studies which conclude that the DP fails as a deterrent and you supply one contrary example
- Japan. This example shows a reduction in ALL Crime and unless you think the DP acts as a deterrent to crimes where it does not apply then how do you explain that? Your example categorically fails to make any link whatsoever between the DP and the drop in crime - because none exists.

correlation does not mean causation and in a case where for example THEFT has halved are you going to attribute that to the DP?

That is my point exactly. so unless these 74 studies prove conclusively that the DP causes an increase in violent crime, I'm calling bullsh1t.

You would have to stop the DP in those same areas and observe a statistically relevant decrease in crime for it to be causal. If it if it remained the same or increased then the findings of those studies are total crap.

It could be just a violent sh1thole and it has the DP, at best these studies are faulty at worst they are fraudulent.

At least with japan you can see that the place has the DP, doesn't mind using it and it is a very safe place, unlike Australia.

74 studies and you want to just presume they are wrong and that their methodologies are flawed?

Japan has ALWAYS had the death penalty post war (and I think pre-war as well) the reduction of crime is a relatively recent thing in the last 10-15 years. So the DP has had zero effect on reducing crime since it actually increasing for 50 of those post-war years. whatever has reduced crime in the last 10015 years is worth researching but it is certainly not the DP since they executed over 600 people well before the crime rate drop.

Dude you are running of straws to grasp. Grin

You have no idea and nor do those supposed 74 studies whether the DP has a positive of negative effect on anything but the person being executed, that we do know this did have a positive effect.

Those studies are at best an 'educated' guess based on suspect data interpretation at worst a fraudulent attempt to verify bias based on personal belief. I'm thinking a few from column one and a whole sh1t load from column two.

and thus ends your brief relationship with credibility. 74 studies and you reject all of them because... you disagree with them. And yet you support the totally repudiated notion of the DP reducing crime because Japan has had a drop in crime in the last 10 years after 50 years of increasing crime.. Trouble is, the DP was present for the entire 60 years.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #103 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 12:25pm

ian wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:56am:

BigOl64 wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 10:50am:

Dude you are running of straws to grasp. Grin

You have no idea and nor do those supposed 74 studies whether the DP has a positive of negative effect on anything but the person being executed, that we do know this did have a positive effect.

Those studies are at best an 'educated' guess based on suspect data interpretation at worst a fraudulent attempt to verify bias based on personal belief. I'm thinking a few from column one and a whole sh1t load from column two.

i would suggest that your analysis of the data is much more accurate than Longliars. At the least we can infer that the DP does not cause violent crime to rise as some are suggesting.

they arent INFERRING at all. They are demonstrating strong statistical evidence based on facts and methodolgies you would never cope with trying to understand.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: The Death Penalty is still drawin' a crowd (pt 2)
Reply #104 - Jul 7^th, 2013 at 12:27pm

ian wrote on Jul 7^th, 2013 at 11:11am:

WA has over 2800 child sex offenders in the community who are considered at risk of reoffending. The odds are if you live in WA there is at least one living in your local area. This is the justice system gone crazy because we have gone down the road of leniency and not understanding that these people can not be rehabilitated, not one of them. If we wanted to lock them all up we would have to build at least 4 more maximum security prisons. And thats just in WA. Now imagine how many of these predators are wandering around the rest of Australia due to the efforts of people like Longweekend. And they will all reoffend, every single one of the. Many will never be caught. If prison teaches them anything it teaches them to be more careful the next time.

.com.au/news/western-australia/thousands-of-sex-offenders-in-wa-and-800-classed-
as-high-risk/story-fnhocxo3-1226675300190
Thousands of sex offenders in WA and 800 classed as 'high risk'

THERE are 800 child sex offenders in WA who police fear are at a high risk of reoffending.

The sex-offender management squad is monitoring 2849 reportable offenders who pose a risk to children.

Of those, 170 are considered dangerous enough to be labelled a "very high" risk of hurting children again and must report to police at least once a month.

Another 630 are considered a "high" risk and have to check in once every three months.

Another 1694 offenders are considered a "medium" or "low" risk and only report to police once or twice a year.

actual studies have shown the recidivism rate of sex offenders to be no higher than any other class of crime.

and what you dont realise is that the majority of these sex offenders are no more than downloaders of illegal material. Senior police are on record as saying that including them in the sex offender register is counter-productive because it means they have to waste valuable resources on people very unlikely to offend against children instead of concentrating on the real predators.

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged