Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jul 6
th, 2013 at 4:36pm:
Australia has never been performing that well over the last couple of quarters.
There has been an excessive boom across China which has spurred the need for resources and natural mineral production refinement.
Chinas boom is slowing.
As a result that will see an end to more of the masking factors if you like.
Australia's manufacturing employment has not been good for a long time.
You're only a little country. Here in Britain we're part of a much more powerful trading block in the EU to compete with the US and Asia.
Australia will find it hard to go it alone with such a small base.
So to keep your competitiveness, attract investment you need much higher interest rates than we have.
How does Australia get out of this slide?
I don't know, I think debt increasing which you have done year on year since 2007 is not the answer.
No matter what your circumstance increasing debt is not really ever am answer.
What you're going to see now is essentially what's being going on for a while.
An economy in trouble but just this time the Chinese growth stalling is not going to mask it anymore.
Australia has some rough days ahead I think.
Well Andrei, you are dwelling too much on Economic effects, when you should be looking at basic causes!
In order to get a good perspective on why the OZ Economy is slipping & it is, you/we/us first need to have a good look at the Global situation, because those are the major issues impacting the OZ Economy!
In order to get some proper perceptions of what & why, things are changing, I would suggest a quick look at the major drivers that have been impacting the Global Economy, for much of the modern era, since say around 1800.
The absolute standouts are -
DemographicsThis has been the biggest & most consistent driver of Global Demand & therefore Economic Growth, certainly since 1800.
Global Fertility around 1800 was about 6 children for each women, in many western countries it dipped to a low around the early 1930's (which coincided with the Great Depression), then peaked again around 1956, before starting a relentless decline which now sees the Global rate around 2.
With 2.1 being regarded as the break even point, we are now bordering on actual Population reductions and indeed some countries are already much lower than break even, with Japan & a number of European countries being prime examples.
So, the Demand Growth is now slowing AND NO AMOUNT OF KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS WILL INCREASE DEMAND GROWTH BACK TO THE LEVELS OF THE LAST 40-50 YEARS!
Equally, THE USUAL AUSTERITY MEASURES, TO BRING HIGH DEBT LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL, KNOWING THAT THE USUAL POPULATION GROWTH WILL EVENTUALLY SPARK DEMAND GROWTH AGAIN & THEREFORE RESTART THE ECONOMY, WILL ALSO NOT WORK THIS TIME! EnergyFossil fuels such as Coal, Oil & Gas has been one of the great "energisers/Enablers" of Global Economic Growth, since around 1800. These fuels have been both Plentiful AND Cheap, for some 200 years, BUT since around 2000 the Oil & Coal gravy train has started to run down, with supply not keeping up with the usual Demand increases & Prices therefore rising, unless the Global Economy starts to slow.
Technology The second of the great "energisers/Enablers" of Global Economic Growth, since around 1800, with Technological advances being a substantial basis of Productivity gains, which have translated into great advances in Economic Growth!
Now, it MAY be possible that Technology MAY again come to our rescue & it MAY produce answers that MAY solve the Energy problem/s, BUT that would be a huge gamble to take & I simply don't believe that good Public policy should run those sort of risks AND quite frankly I think it is highly unlikely that Technology will actually solve the Energy problem/s!
So, the likely outcome is that these major Economic drivers will continue their apparent new paths & the Global & local OZ Economies will continue to experience lower Growth, than the past 40-59 years AND that will translate into a long term Economic slowdown!
That slowdown will not be able to be corrected, like the usual Economic cycle and we will be obliged to look at new "solutions" against which we will measure success, although success is unlikely to have the same meaning as it once did?
Finally, I am fully aware that this news is hardly palatable, BUT at least forewarned is forearmed & those who have a better idea of what the future is really likely to bring, MAY be able to live better with the likely new realities?
Oh & the following MAY be of interest, for those looking for background -
http://kounfinance.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/global-economic-driver-world-populati... http://www.econ.umn.edu/~guvenen/paper6.pdfhttp://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1372809408/16#16