Australian Politics Forum - $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls

woof woof Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1518 Gender:	Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls Reply #75 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 8:51pm so how much debt do we go into?
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scope

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #76 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:20pm

woof woof wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 8:51pm:

so how much debt do we go into?

Good question the most simplistic answer is "what we can afford to pay back"
As long as whatever the debt is it has to be manageable
that is why Australia currently has a brilliant credit rating , our debt at the moment is manageable
It is impossible to put a figure on it, we have to use a standard so debt to GDP is used. at the moment it is around 20.7 last year ( 2011/2012) it was higher at 22.9 so we have reduced debt by a large amount in a short period of time.
So what happens if our GDP increases over the next few years then it does allow us to service our debt much quicker and more easily , on the downside it also allows Gov's to borrow more.

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scope

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #77 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:22pm

you might find this interesting.
Australia recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 20.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Debt To GDP in Australia is reported by the AOFM, Australia. Australia Government Debt To GDP averaged 19.92 Percent from 1989 until 2012, reaching an all time high of 31.70 Percent in December of 1994 and a record low of 9.70 Percent in December of 2007. Generally, Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a country ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the country borrowing costs and government bond yields.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

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Dnarever

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #78 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:30pm

Obviously the less debt the better and the quicker to a surplus the better also.

We currently have 2 options for government one which has been working towards a surplus and thwarted by dwindling income while cutting back on middle class welfare etc and the other guys who are bringing well over $100B of unfunded spending to the table.

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Sprintcyclist

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #79 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:39pm

scope wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:22pm:

you might find this interesting.
Australia recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 20.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2012. Government Debt To GDP in Australia is reported by the AOFM, Australia. Australia Government Debt To GDP averaged 19.92 Percent from 1989 until 2012, reaching an all time high of 31.70 Percent in December of 1994 and a record low of 9.70 Percent in December of 2007. Generally, Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a country ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the country borrowing costs and government bond yields.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

that is interesting scope, thanks

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Sprintcyclist

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #80 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:41pm

Dnarever wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:30pm:

Obviously the less debt the better and the quicker to a surplus the better also.

We currently have 2 options for government one which has been working towards a surplus and thwarted by dwindling income while cutting back on middle class welfare etc and the other guys who are bringing well over $100B of unfunded spending to the table.

the govt we have now have put us into a huge debt.
they have givn very serious vows to return to surplus a few times in the past.
All falsely.
I disbelieve them.
they have failed too often in the past for me and told too many lies for me

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scope

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #81 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:49pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:41pm:

Dnarever wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:30pm:

Obviously the less debt the better and the quicker to a surplus the better also.

We currently have 2 options for government one which has been working towards a surplus and thwarted by dwindling income while cutting back on middle class welfare etc and the other guys who are bringing well over $100B of unfunded spending to the table.

the govt we have now have put us into a huge debt.
they have givn very serious vows to return to surplus a few times in the past.
All falsely.
I disbelieve them.
they have failed too often in the past for me and told too many lies for me

The problem I have with this type of thinking is that IF we had a Liberal Gov at the time they would have been forced into the same amount of debt, they even had a policy release to match Rudds GFC stimulus spending, the amounts where almost the same so we would still have the same amount of debt under the LIbs.
I don't believe the vow to return to surplus was false at the time I believe it was possible but sometimes poo happens and the forecast's are wrong for whatever reason so then they have to revise the projections.

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woof woof

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #82 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 10:30pm

My concern with the method of accounting by the gov in measuring debt by a % of GDP, is that GDP is not income it is the size of the economy.

The govs ability to repay debt is dependant on its tax take and its liabilities, if the liabilities exceed the tax take then the budget will be in deficit, meaning we owe more money.

You can't repay debt with GDP so no matter what % the debt is to GDP debt repayment is solely dependant on tax-liabilities.

And labor can't produce a surplus to save themselves???

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Sprintcyclist

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #83 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 10:35pm

scope wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:49pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:41pm:

Dnarever wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:30pm:

Obviously the less debt the better and the quicker to a surplus the better also.

We currently have 2 options for government one which has been working towards a surplus and thwarted by dwindling income while cutting back on middle class welfare etc and the other guys who are bringing well over $100B of unfunded spending to the table.

the govt we have now have put us into a huge debt.
they have givn very serious vows to return to surplus a few times in the past.
All falsely.
I disbelieve them.
they have failed too often in the past for me and told too many lies for me

The problem I have with this type of thinking is that IF we had a Liberal Gov at the time they would have been forced into the same amount of debt, they even had a policy release to match Rudds GFC stimulus spending, the amounts where almost the same so we would still have the same amount of debt under the LIbs.
I don't believe the vow to return to surplus was false at the time I believe it was possible but sometimes poo happens and the forecast's are wrong for whatever reason so then they have to revise the projections.

gosh it is nice to have someone discuss things reasonably.
thanks scope.

i give the alp the benfit of the doubt that they full well intended a surplus.
Experts said it was improbable.
the alp were badly wrong. they failed.
Others estimated correctly. i did. It was not hard.

A semigood management will get estimates about right.
they will foresee events and cater to possibilities.
the alp did not do this.

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perceptions_now

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #84 - Jul 28^th, 2013 at 11:13pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 3:40pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 3:28pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 7:13pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 6:58pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 6:47pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 3:55pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 3:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 2:48pm:

cods wrote on Jul 27^th, 2013 at 7:59am:

hey perc?.... has your life worked out exactly as you planned it 40/50 years ago?????..

I am not sure how anyone plans for "earthquakes".that may or may not happen in their lives.. but you must have done.

you will also not that Prozac_now never comes up with any solutions - just criticism. He hates debt and hates spending cuts. he seems to want it both ways while blaming everyone for everything.

clearly his medication is not working,

You assume too much, as usual! A solution, for everything, there is NOT!

As usual, you statements do not reflect the truth! I have no problem with Debt, Spending Cuts or Economic Stimulation measures, in the appropriate circumstances, of which there have been many, over the years, BUT NONE OF THEM WILL WORK NOW, FOR THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM, as the entire system has been destabilised over the last 40-50 years!

so in short, you are saying that you have no answers or solutions. WHICH WAS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID, oh depressed one.

As usual, your statement is incorrect!

You said that, I never comes up with any solutions.

What I said is that, there is not necessarily a solution for everything & in this instance there is no solution, which would restore the "status quo", in either the short or medium term and certainly not without a great deal of shared pain for all!

Btw, which of the following options, per my following post, do you think primarily fit you OR is it simply all of them?

They ("those in the know OR thought they did") thought -
1) Like Longy, it had not happened before, so it never would!
2) "Something", like the cavalry riding to the rescue, would come along to save this from becoming a reality?
3) Then there were those who deliberately turned the other way, preferring short term rewards for themselves and a select few, at great cost to the long term future of the bulk of the Local & Global Public!
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1374843119/16#16

you certainly are a weirdo, Prozac_now. I say you have never provided solutions and your protesting reply includes... NOT ONE SOLUTION. has it ever occurred to you that you could skewer my comments by simply providing those self-same solutions?

you talk and talk ad nauseum, criticising anyone and everyone for their economic policies and promises and yet not once, do you ever offer an alternative. That's lame enough on its own but when you say that you HAVE but never post them... you look like a weirdo.

Did you ever learn how to read Longy, I said -
"What I said is that, there is not necessarily a solution for everything & in this instance there is no solution, which would restore the "status quo", in either the short or medium term and certainly not without a great deal of shared pain for all!"

Did you ever learn how to read Longy, I said -
"What I said is that, there is not necessarily a solution for everything & in this instance there is no solution, which would restore the "status quo", in either the short or medium term and certainly not without a great deal of shared pain for all!"

You really do have some serious lack of capacities, in a number of areas!

How's your education going Longy?
Have you learned about the 3R's yet?
You know - Reading, Riting & Rithmetic?
Well, at least, you got a chance with the Riting, after all you are on the Rite side of politics?

all you ever is 'gah! we are all going to die'
and then say there are no solutions. Of what value do you think you are to anyone?
You are the same bozo saying we would run out of oil in 1985 and even worse... still say so.

As usual Longy, YOU ARE INCORRECT!
I have never said, we are all going to die, IT IS YOU WHO JUST SAID THAT!
Also, I never said, we were going to run out of oil in 1985, BUT yes, we certainly will run out at some stage, AS OIL IS MOST DEINITELY A FINITE RESOURCE, don't you know!

And, as for solutions, apparently you still, continue to fail the 4R's -
Reading
wRiting
aRithmetic
& compRehension
So, I say again -
"What I said is that, there is not necessarily a solution for everything & in this instance there is no solution, which would restore the "status quo", in either the short or medium term and certainly not without a great deal of shared pain for all!"

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scope

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #85 - Jul 29^th, 2013 at 12:09am

woof woof wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 10:30pm:

My concern with the method of accounting by the gov in measuring debt by a % of GDP, is that GDP is not income it is the size of the economy.

The govs ability to repay debt is dependant on its tax take and its liabilities, if the liabilities exceed the tax take then the budget will be in deficit, meaning we owe more money.

You can't repay debt with GDP so no matter what % the debt is to GDP debt repayment is solely dependant on tax-liabilities.

And labor can't produce a surplus to save themselves???

Maybe it's not the best way , is there any better way? but that is what all countries use.

Labor have produced surplus's Keating was the first treasurer to ever achieve a surplus. he did so on at least two occasions.
The liberals had never achieved a surplus until Costello ( I may stand corrected on this but I believe it to be true)
But achieving a surplus is not the be all to end all, it's how a surplus is achieved is what counts.
I,m Trying to leave party politics aside here and not start a "ours is better than yours argument"

The reality is that Costello had better times than most treasurers, and he held a huge amount of asset sales that other treasurers didn't do as much of.
So it's easy to gain a surplus but at what cost, what do you do after you sell everything?

Another reality is that for a Gov to run a surplus they are in fact taxing too much , really the books at the end of the year should balance , that is expenditure is equal to income but I think this is just a pipe dream.

I agree a surplus is better than debt but there is also a problem with getting very large surplus's consistently.
I think it was Costello who said that he had to rein in Howard on spending other wise he would have spent all the surplus on politicking an that's not a good thing.

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scope

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #86 - Jul 29^th, 2013 at 12:23am

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 10:35pm:

scope wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:49pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:41pm:

Dnarever wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:30pm:

Obviously the less debt the better and the quicker to a surplus the better also.

We currently have 2 options for government one which has been working towards a surplus and thwarted by dwindling income while cutting back on middle class welfare etc and the other guys who are bringing well over $100B of unfunded spending to the table.

the govt we have now have put us into a huge debt.
they have givn very serious vows to return to surplus a few times in the past.
All falsely.
I disbelieve them.
they have failed too often in the past for me and told too many lies for me

The problem I have with this type of thinking is that IF we had a Liberal Gov at the time they would have been forced into the same amount of debt, they even had a policy release to match Rudds GFC stimulus spending, the amounts where almost the same so we would still have the same amount of debt under the LIbs.
I don't believe the vow to return to surplus was false at the time I believe it was possible but sometimes poo happens and the forecast's are wrong for whatever reason so then they have to revise the projections.

gosh it is nice to have someone discuss things reasonably.
thanks scope.

i give the alp the benfit of the doubt that they full well intended a surplus.
Experts said it was improbable.
the alp were badly wrong. they failed.
Others estimated correctly. i did. It was not hard.

A semigood management will get estimates about right.
they will foresee events and cater to possibilities.
the alp did not do this.

I agree they should not have made the promise, but at the time of the first promise things were looking good and many economists agreed that it was possible remember we are talking about a very small surplus of around $1B I think it was. just a few months later it was apparent that it would never happen.
What labor have done well is to reduce the debt we have from the higher debt we had in 2011/2012.
When you consider that they have cut spending to achieve this and have introduced new policies, this in today's economic climate that is really remarkable.
Which is one reason why Swan (like him or hate him) received his best treasurer award.

Was he a good treasurer ? I don't think he was particularly good but at the same time he didn't stuff things up as most claimed he would.
He was mostly benign as a treasurer he coasted along not interfering and he let the economy take it's course. That was probably the smartest thing he did.

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Sir Spot of Borg

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #87 - Jul 29^th, 2013 at 5:56am

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:41pm:

Dnarever wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:30pm:

Obviously the less debt the better and the quicker to a surplus the better also.

We currently have 2 options for government one which has been working towards a surplus and thwarted by dwindling income while cutting back on middle class welfare etc and the other guys who are bringing well over $100B of unfunded spending to the table.

the govt we have now have put us into a huge debt.
they have givn very serious vows to return to surplus a few times in the past.
All falsely.
I disbelieve them.
they have failed too often in the past for me and told too many lies for me

So what? Some money has to be spent on infrastructure etc - seriously - there is no need for austerity @ this time.

SOB

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Whaaaaaah!
I'm a
Moron!

- edited by some unethical admin - you think its funny? - its a slippery slope

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buzzanddidj

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Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls
Reply #88 - Jul 29^th, 2013 at 8:18am

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2013 at 9:41pm:

the govt we have now have put us into a huge debt.

REPOST ...

Even John Howard is capable of coming clean with the TRUTH - occasionally - and giving
credit, where credit is DUE

Quote:

Former prime minister John Howard gave the economy a big tick
before Treasurer Wayne Swan delivered his sixth budget on Tuesday night.

''And our debt to GDP ratio, the amount of money we owe, to the strength of our economy, is still a lot better than most other countries,'' he said.

He said Australia's economy was better than the economies of Japan, the US and most European countries.

This is in stark contrast to his protege and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's assessment of doom and gloom on Monday
.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/resilient-economy-in-better-shape-t...

Australia’s
GFC stimulus debt
is the second lowest in the OECD.
Gross debt stands at 28.9% of GDP.

This compares to Japan at 224%,
Greece at 193.2%,
Portugal at 133.1%,
Italy at 129.6%,
Ireland at 127.7%,
United States at 113%,
France at 108.2%,
UK at 110.4%,
Canada at 85.5%,
Spain at 100.2%
Germany at 86.2%.

i

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 106935 Melbourne Gender:	Re: $19B deficit?....add another $8B to it pls Reply #89 - Jul 29^th, 2013 at 10:10am Quote: Gross debt stands at 28.9% of GDP The fact is that it's always increasing - that's bad because it means we are living beyond our means.
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